Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)'s </a> Q4 FY25 results missed estimates, with revenue up 6.4% YoY but PAT down 4.3% YoY, impacted by higher costs from new launches and EV investments.</li>
<li>Management guides for 1–2% industry growth in FY26 but expects to outperform, led by new SUV launches and strong export growth (+20% targeted).</li>
<li>Valuation at ~25x trailing EPS appears fair relative to historical average; near-term upside looks capped given muted demand and margin pressures.</li>
</ul>



Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)'s  Q4 FY25 results missed estimates, with revenue up 6.4% YoY but PAT down 4.3% YoY, impacted by higher costs from new launches and EV investments.
Management guides for 1–2% industry growth in FY26 but expects to outperform, led by new SUV launches and strong export growth (+20% targeted).
Valuation at ~25x trailing EPS appears fair relative to historical average; near-term upside looks capped given muted demand and margin pressures.


Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) - Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The company has lost market share over the last 5-6 years as it was late to capitalize on the SUV trend, which was further exacerbated by the company exiting the diesel segment</li><li>However, a change in strategy for the company is leading to structural tailwinds</li><li>We expect the company to partially gain back market share on the back of its aggressive new model launch plan, benefit from a partial rebound of the small car market when it happens (we are optimistic of it partially rebounding from FY27), and benefit from any shift in powertrain trend to hybrids (like it is happening globally)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The company has lost market share over the last 5-6 years as it was late to capitalize on the SUV trend, which was further exacerbated by the company exiting the diesel segmentHowever, a change in strategy for the company is leading to structural tailwindsWe expect the company to partially gain back market share on the back of its aggressive new model launch plan, benefit from a partial rebound of the small car market when it happens (we are optimistic of it partially rebounding from FY27), and benefit from any shift in powertrain trend to hybrids (like it is happening globally)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maruti Suzuki: Launches, Exports to Drive the Structural Story. Maintain BUY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Sharekhan

Sharekhan

Sharekhan is India's leading broking house providing services from easy online trading, research to wide array of financial products. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Maruti’s EBITDA was better than estimates led by beat in margin.</li><li>Retail sales improved and grew 3.5% y-o-y in 9MFY25. Similar growth is expected in Q4.</li><li>Traction in exports, improvement in demand environment and launch of first EV will aid the growth of the company.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maruti’s EBITDA was better than estimates led by beat in margin.Retail sales improved and grew 3.5% y-o-y in 9MFY25. Similar growth is expected in Q4.Traction in exports, improvement in demand environment and launch of first EV will aid the growth of the company.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd - Decent Q3; Maintain Buy

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

<ul>
<li>We compile our selection of companies across Japan, China and India based on bottom-up triggers in each company. </li>
<li>Top-Picks in China are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yadea-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22706:1" rel="noopener">Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Our top picks in Japan are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> and in India-Auto it is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> &amp;<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a>
</li>
</ul>


We compile our selection of companies across Japan, China and India based on bottom-up triggers in each company. 
Top-Picks in China are Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) , Midea Group (300 HK) and Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK).
Our top picks in Japan are Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) and ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) and in India-Auto it is Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) &amp;Ashok Leyland (AL IN)



Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India - November 2025

India

Maruti Suzuki India Limited manufactures and exports automobiles. Maruti collaborated with Suzuki of Japan to produce affordable cars for the average Indian.

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Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)

Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) - Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results

Maruti Suzuki India's Q4FY25 results disappoint. Management expects to outperform industry growth in FY26.Valuation at 25x P/E trailing EPS seems...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Maruti Suzuki: Launches, Exports to Drive the Structural Story. Maintain BUY

The company has lost market share over the last 5-6 years as it was late to capitalize on the SUV trend, which was further exacerbated by the...

HDFC Securities

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd - Decent Q3; Maintain Buy

Maruti’s EBITDA was better than estimates led by beat in margin. Retail sales improved and grew 3.5% y-o-y in 9MFY25. Similar growth is expected in...

Sharekhan

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

We forecast 19 changes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn). The...

Brian Freitas

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India - November 2025

Mahindra and Mahindra continued with its strong sales momentum in November - 1)Within auto it achieved SUV sales of 56,336 units, a growth of...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) - Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results

​Maruti Suzuki India's Q4FY25 results disappoint. Management expects to outperform industry growth in FY26.Valuation at 25x P/E trailing EPS seems...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Maruti Suzuki: Launches, Exports to Drive the Structural Story. Maintain BUY

The company has lost market share over the last 5-6 years as it was late to capitalize on the SUV trend, which was further exacerbated by the...

HDFC Securities

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd - Decent Q3; Maintain Buy

Maruti’s EBITDA was better than estimates led by beat in margin. Retail sales improved and grew 3.5% y-o-y in 9MFY25. Similar growth is expected in...

Sharekhan

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

We forecast 19 changes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn). The...

Brian Freitas

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India - November 2025

Mahindra and Mahindra continued with its strong sales momentum in November - 1)Within auto it achieved SUV sales of 56,336 units, a growth of...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Maruti Suzuki India's Q4FY25 results disappoint. Management expects to outperform industry growth in FY26.Valuation at 25x P/E trailing EPS seems...