FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

Little changed to support the rebound in EUR and weakness in the USD on Thursday.&nbsp; In fact dovish ECB comments and on-message statements from senior Fed members suggest the policy divergence is likely to intensify next month.&nbsp; Eurozone industrial production showed a flat trend in recent quarters and US labour data were firm.&nbsp; Eurozone GDP and US retail sales today in focus. A comparison of CAD and AUD reveal much in common, we see downside pressure persisting for both.&nbsp; Weaker oil prices an immediate threat for CAD.&nbsp; Bank of Canada speech tonight in focus.&nbsp; Australian RBA minutes and wage data next week pose downside risk for the AUD.

Little changed to support the rebound in EUR and weakness in the USD on Thursday.&nbsp; In fact dovish ECB comments and on-message statements from senior Fed members suggest the policy divergence is likely to intensify next month.&nbsp; Eurozone industrial production showed a flat trend in recent quarters and US labour data were firm.&nbsp; Eurozone GDP and US retail sales today in focus. A comparison of CAD and AUD reveal much in common, we see downside pressure persisting for both.&nbsp; Weaker oil prices an immediate threat for CAD.&nbsp; Bank of Canada speech tonight in focus.&nbsp; Australian RBA minutes and wage data next week pose downside risk for the AUD.

The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity demand in China and weak energy prices are dragging harder from below; best to stay on the side-lines for now.&nbsp; Oil prices appear to be responding to concerns over too much supply.&nbsp; The ECB has said low oil prices are a contributing factor to its assessment that more policy easing may be required. We stick to our weaker EUR view, as other major CBs are more prepared to look through the dis-inflation risk.

The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity demand in China and weak energy prices are dragging harder from below; best to stay on the side-lines for now.&nbsp; Oil prices appear to be responding to concerns over too much supply.&nbsp; The ECB has said low oil prices are a contributing factor to its assessment that more policy easing may be required. We stick to our weaker EUR view, as other major CBs are more prepared to look through the dis-inflation risk.

AmpGFX - AUD pulled harder in opposite directions

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Euroz Limited

Euroz Hartleys

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Euroz Limited

A Western Australian diversified financial services company focused on providing financial services solutions to Institutional, Corporate & Private Clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Matrix Composites & Eng / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>MCE reported 1H25 result, earnings exceeded our expectations although the outlook for the balance of the financial year has been downgraded</li><li>Revenue: $39.4m +48% vs pcp (EHe: $36.0m). EBITDA: $3.2m +433% vs pcp (EHe: $2.5m)</li></ul><div><ul><li>Net Cash (ex leases): $8.3m (FY: $14.4m), was impacted by elevated receivables at balance date that have subsequently been receipted. Cash as at reporting has increased by $3.5m to $19.2m.</li></ul></div>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

MCE reported 1H25 result, earnings exceeded our expectations although the outlook for the balance of the financial year has been downgradedRevenue: $39.4m +48% vs pcp (EHe: $36.0m). EBITDA: $3.2m +433% vs pcp (EHe: $2.5m)Net Cash (ex leases): $8.3m (FY: $14.4m), was impacted by elevated receivables at balance date that have subsequently been receipted. Cash as at reporting has increased by $3.5m to $19.2m.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Matrix Composites & Engineering Ltd - Solid 1H25; Award Delays Impact Short Term Outlook

<ul><li>MCE reported $85.0m revenue (+80% vs pcp), $11.0m EBITDA (vs $0.2m pcp) and $3.6m NPAT, a significant beat to our estimates and consensus (EHe:$6.1m EBITDA and $(1.4)m NPAT).</li><li>Increased activity from subsea oil &amp; gas drove topline growth, with a favourable revenue mix paired with meaningful operating leverage supporting the 17.9% EBITDA margin delivered in the 2H24.</li><li>Net cash (excl leases) increased to $14.4m ($13.9m at 1H23), supported by $3.2m in free cash flow after $4.5m in capex (~$3.0m growth) and modest $0.5m working capital draw supporting the larger revenue base.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

MCE reported $85.0m revenue (+80% vs pcp), $11.0m EBITDA (vs $0.2m pcp) and $3.6m NPAT, a significant beat to our estimates and consensus (EHe:$6.1m EBITDA and $(1.4)m NPAT).Increased activity from subsea oil &amp; gas drove topline growth, with a favourable revenue mix paired with meaningful operating leverage supporting the 17.9% EBITDA margin delivered in the 2H24.Net cash (excl leases) increased to $14.4m ($13.9m at 1H23), supported by $3.2m in free cash flow after $4.5m in capex (~$3.0m growth) and modest $0.5m working capital draw supporting the larger revenue base.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>MCE has announced the award of $30m SURF contract from Subsea 7.</li><li>Work is expected to commence in June 2024 quarter with completion during December 2024; majority of work to be recognised through FY'25.</li><li>MCE now expect FY'24 revenue to be in excess of $80m, with opportunities in the pipeline to add to this - which implies further contract wins likely in the short term given lead times on manufacturing.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

MCE has announced the award of $30m SURF contract from Subsea 7.Work is expected to commence in June 2024 quarter with completion during December 2024; majority of work to be recognised through FY'25.MCE now expect FY'24 revenue to be in excess of $80m, with opportunities in the pipeline to add to this - which implies further contract wins likely in the short term given lead times on manufacturing.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Matrix Composites & Engineering Ltd - Secures $30m Contract

Australia

Matrix Composites & Engineering Ltd. is an engineering company. The Company specialises in the design, application and manufacturing of products based on advanced composite materials, engineering plastics and elastomers.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Matrix Composites & Eng (MCE AU)

AmpGFX - CAD and AUD in the hot-seat

Little changed to support the rebound in EUR and weakness in the USD on Thursday. In fact dovish ECB comments and on-message statements from...

Greg Gibbs

AmpGFX - AUD pulled harder in opposite directions

The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity...

Greg Gibbs

Matrix Composites & Engineering Ltd - Solid 1H25; Award Delays Impact Short Term Outlook

MCE reported 1H25 result, earnings exceeded our expectations although the outlook for the balance of the financial year has been downgraded

Euroz Hartleys

MCE: Leverage Exceeded Expectation

MCE reported $85.0m revenue (+80% vs pcp), $11.0m EBITDA (vs $0.2m pcp) and $3.6m NPAT, a significant beat to our estimates and consensus...

Euroz Hartleys

Matrix Composites & Engineering Ltd - Secures $30m Contract

Work is expected to commence in June 2024 quarter with completion during December 2024; majority of work to be recognised through FY'25.

Euroz Hartleys

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)