Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Watch for a 'megaquake' reversal after a big rotation for names deemed to be winners/losers on Friday on heightened expectations for a major Nankai Trough earthquake over the w/e</li>
<li>Retail related should rebound sharply after a solid 1Q showing from 3099 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi</a>, with several related names yet to rebound on concerns the stronger yen will curb tourist spending.</li>
<li>1911 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-forestry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9769:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Forestry</a> business briefing Friday confirms the strength of its US housing business, with it likely to easily exceed its latest MTP.</li>
</ul>


Watch for a 'megaquake' reversal after a big rotation for names deemed to be winners/losers on Friday on heightened expectations for a major Nankai Trough earthquake over the w/e
Retail related should rebound sharply after a solid 1Q showing from 3099 Isetan Mitsukoshi, with several related names yet to rebound on concerns the stronger yen will curb tourist spending.
1911 Sumitomo Forestry business briefing Friday confirms the strength of its US housing business, with it likely to easily exceed its latest MTP.


Japan Morning Connection: 3099 JP, 1911 JP, 5803 JP

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>We have long forecast the demise of regional department stores and the emergence of an elite group of luxury emporiums in big cities and this had been happening gradually. </li>
<li>Until the last year. Now the gap between the two is widening sharply, boosted in part by tourists flocking to big city stores, resulting in both record sales and profits.</li>
<li>At Matsuya Ginza for example, duty-free sales accounted for an historic 33% of sales last year. Further growth is expected.</li>
</ul>


We have long forecast the demise of regional department stores and the emergence of an elite group of luxury emporiums in big cities and this had been happening gradually. 
Until the last year. Now the gap between the two is widening sharply, boosted in part by tourists flocking to big city stores, resulting in both record sales and profits.
At Matsuya Ginza for example, duty-free sales accounted for an historic 33% of sales last year. Further growth is expected.


<ul>
<li>The rebound in tourist numbers to Japan after Covid was inevitable given the latent demand and ongoing popularity of the country as a destination.</li>
<li>But more surprising has been the huge diversity of nationalities, making up for the lag in Chinese visitors, boosting traffic at key retailers (as listed below).</li>
<li>Also new is the higher spend per visitor thanks to the cheap Yen, boosting retailers across the spectrum. Data from Google and Qunar suggests much more growth to come.</li>
</ul>


The rebound in tourist numbers to Japan after Covid was inevitable given the latent demand and ongoing popularity of the country as a destination.
But more surprising has been the huge diversity of nationalities, making up for the lag in Chinese visitors, boosting traffic at key retailers (as listed below).
Also new is the higher spend per visitor thanks to the cheap Yen, boosting retailers across the spectrum. Data from Google and Qunar suggests much more growth to come.


Japan Tourist Spending Per Head up 50% on 2019 Amid Record Arrivals

<ul>
<li>If you need a quick overview of Japan's retail sectors and the winners and losers within, the following provides an update on 2023 and where things are headed in 2024.</li>
<li>Drugstore consolidation continues but so does the sector's encroachment on supermarkets while leaders in department stores are delivering record profits and lifestyle retailing is back.</li>
<li>Some of the best performers compared to initial forecasts include Matsuya, ABC Mart, Adastria, Isetan-Mitsukoshi, Takashimaya, Kintetsu, J Front Retailing and Lawson.</li>
</ul>


If you need a quick overview of Japan's retail sectors and the winners and losers within, the following provides an update on 2023 and where things are headed in 2024.
Drugstore consolidation continues but so does the sector's encroachment on supermarkets while leaders in department stores are delivering record profits and lifestyle retailing is back.
Some of the best performers compared to initial forecasts include Matsuya, ABC Mart, Adastria, Isetan-Mitsukoshi, Takashimaya, Kintetsu, J Front Retailing and Lawson.


Japan Retail Update: Winners and Losers as FY2023 Ends

<ul>
<li>While big city department stores have only lost 12.8% of sales since 2009, regional stores have lost 45%, emphasising how wide the gap in performance has become. </li>
<li>But Japan is also witnessing the emergence of a new elite group of department stores who are far ahead even of their big city peers.</li>
<li>This elite group have found more traction among the new wealthy and affluent city dwellers and growth is set to continue, with record sales and – especially – profit.</li>
</ul>


While big city department stores have only lost 12.8% of sales since 2009, regional stores have lost 45%, emphasising how wide the gap in performance has become. 
But Japan is also witnessing the emergence of a new elite group of department stores who are far ahead even of their big city peers.
This elite group have found more traction among the new wealthy and affluent city dwellers and growth is set to continue, with record sales and – especially – profit.


Japan's Department Stores: Elitism Rules and There's Profit in It

Japan

MATSUYA CO., LTD. operates department stores at Ginza and Asakusa in Tokyo. The Company sells clothing, food, and Japanese formal wears, sundry goods, and household utensils.  Matsuya also operates restaurants.

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Matsuya Co Ltd (8237 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: 3099 JP, 1911 JP, 5803 JP

Expect a 'megaquake' reversal in stock names post-rotation due to earthquake warnings, retail rebound likely after strong 3099 1Q showing,...

Andrew Jackson

New Records For (Some) Dept. Stores

Regional department stores are declining while luxury emporiums in big cities are thriving, with a widening gap between the two due to tourist...

Michael Causton

Japan Tourist Spending Per Head up 50% on 2019 Amid Record Arrivals

Japan's tourism rebound post-Covid was expected due to high demand, but diverse nationalities and increased spending per visitor are boosting...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail Update: Winners and Losers as FY2023 Ends

Summary: Japan's retail sectors in 2023 saw drugstore consolidation and encroachment on supermarkets, while dept. stores and lifestyle retailing...

Michael Causton

Japan's Department Stores: Elitism Rules and There's Profit in It

Regional department stores in Japan have lost 45% of sales since 2009, while big city stores have only lost 12.8% and a new elite group of...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: 3099 JP, 1911 JP, 5803 JP

​Expect a 'megaquake' reversal in stock names post-rotation due to earthquake warnings, retail rebound likely after strong 3099 1Q showing,...

Andrew Jackson

New Records For (Some) Dept. Stores

​Regional department stores are declining while luxury emporiums in big cities are thriving, with a widening gap between the two due to tourist...

Michael Causton

Japan Tourist Spending Per Head up 50% on 2019 Amid Record Arrivals

​Japan's tourism rebound post-Covid was expected due to high demand, but diverse nationalities and increased spending per visitor are boosting...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail Update: Winners and Losers as FY2023 Ends

​Summary: Japan's retail sectors in 2023 saw drugstore consolidation and encroachment on supermarkets, while dept. stores and lifestyle retailing...

Michael Causton

Japan's Department Stores: Elitism Rules and There's Profit in It

​Regional department stores in Japan have lost 45% of sales since 2009, while big city stores have only lost 12.8% and a new elite group of...

Michael Causton

Expect a 'megaquake' reversal in stock names post-rotation due to earthquake warnings, retail rebound likely after strong 3099 1Q showing,...

Regional department stores are declining while luxury emporiums in big cities are thriving, with a widening gap between the two due to tourist...

Japan's tourism rebound post-Covid was expected due to high demand, but diverse nationalities and increased spending per visitor are boosting...

Summary: Japan's retail sectors in 2023 saw drugstore consolidation and encroachment on supermarkets, while dept. stores and lifestyle retailing...

Regional department stores in Japan have lost 45% of sales since 2009, while big city stores have only lost 12.8% and a new elite group of...