Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Silicon Motion Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>What is PCIe 5.0 and Why SIMO is Poised to Expand Market Share with PCIe 5.0</li>
<li>PCIe 5.0 and Beyond -- Importance for Enterprise HPC and AI Data Centers</li>
<li>Looking Ahead: MaxLinear Arbitration in 2H25E -- We Believe SIMO Likely to Win Its Termination Fee Plus Additional Award for Additional Damages</li>
</ul>


What is PCIe 5.0 and Why SIMO is Poised to Expand Market Share with PCIe 5.0
PCIe 5.0 and Beyond -- Importance for Enterprise HPC and AI Data Centers
Looking Ahead: MaxLinear Arbitration in 2H25E -- We Believe SIMO Likely to Win Its Termination Fee Plus Additional Award for Additional Damages


Silicon Motion: Memory Controllers Emerging as Strategic Pillar for Global HPC and AI Leadership

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.</li>
<li>We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218</li>
</ul>


The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.
We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.
Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218


Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was down 2.0% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 3.3%).</li><li>Energy Technology (13.8% of the index) was down 3.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.3% of the index) was down 0.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 4.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.7% of index) was down 1.9%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: LEV, GRB, TGEN, HTOO, NGPHF, MVST, AZRE, EGT, MXL, HYSR</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 2.0% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 3.3%).Energy Technology (13.8% of the index) was down 3.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.3% of the index) was down 0.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 4.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.7% of index) was down 1.9%.Top 10 Performers: LEV, GRB, TGEN, HTOO, NGPHF, MVST, AZRE, EGT, MXL, HYSR

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on California Resources Corporation (CRC)

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Summary: 
<ul>
<li>
TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough.</li>
<li>
LRCX - 25 is a growth year, taking share from Litho.</li>
<li>
MXL - Clear growth off the bottom as telecom rebounds.</li>
<li>
SK Hynix - Memory cycle ain’t over, HBM is strong.</li>
<li>
TER - Apple designed it’s own modem next year.</li>
<li>
BESI - HBM4 is looking continuously questionable if it’s going to be Hybrid Bonding.</li>
</ul>

Summary: 


TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough.

LRCX - 25 is a growth year, taking share from Litho.

MXL - Clear growth off the bottom as telecom rebounds.

SK Hynix - Memory cycle ain’t over, HBM is strong.

TER - Apple designed it’s own modem next year.

BESI - HBM4 is looking continuously questionable if it’s going to be Hybrid Bonding.


Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and the stock. Let’s discuss earnings, and then I’ll talk about peak lithography and TSMC.</li><li>ASML accidentally leaked earnings this week, and the leak wasn’t good. They beat Q3, but the issue was the outlook for next year and orders coming way below expectations. It’s funny because Q4 revenue is expected to accelerate, but no one is paying attention to that.\</li><li>Memory was half of the measly 2.6 billion-order book and is likely driven more by DUV for HBM than logic High NA.</li></ul>

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and the stock. Let’s discuss earnings, and then I’ll talk about peak lithography and TSMC.ASML accidentally leaked earnings this week, and the leak wasn’t good. They beat Q3, but the issue was the outlook for next year and orders coming way below expectations. It’s funny because Q4 revenue is expected to accelerate, but no one is paying attention to that.\Memory was half of the measly 2.6 billion-order book and is likely driven more by DUV for HBM than logic High NA.

United States

MaxLinear, Inc. provides integrated, radio-frequency analog and mixed-signal semiconductor solutions for broadband communications applications. The Company's products enable the display of broadband video in a wide range of electronic devices, including cable and terrestrial set top boxes, digital televisions, mobile handsets, personal computers, and netbooks.

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Maxlinear Inc Class A (MXL US)

Silicon Motion: Memory Controllers Emerging as Strategic Pillar for Global HPC and AI Leadership

PCIe 5.0 is set to revolutionize data centers, with SIMO positioned to benefit from its expansion in the market. We also analyze a potential...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership $SMH $TSM $NVDA; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Recent Consolidation. Market Dynamics Remain...

Vermilion Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on California Resources Corporation (CRC)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 2.0% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 3.3%).

Water Tower Research

Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Summary: TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough. LRCX - 25 is a growth...

Fabricated Knowledge

Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and...

Fabricated Knowledge

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52-week Range

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Silicon Motion: Memory Controllers Emerging as Strategic Pillar for Global HPC and AI Leadership

​PCIe 5.0 is set to revolutionize data centers, with SIMO positioned to benefit from its expansion in the market. We also analyze a potential...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership $SMH $TSM $NVDA; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Recent Consolidation. Market Dynamics Remain...

Vermilion Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on California Resources Corporation (CRC)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 2.0% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 3.3%).

Water Tower Research

Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Summary: TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough. LRCX - 25 is a growth...

Fabricated Knowledge

Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and...

Fabricated Knowledge

PCIe 5.0 is set to revolutionize data centers, with SIMO positioned to benefit from its expansion in the market. We also analyze a potential...