Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

The Government's release&nbsp;of Re:think,&nbsp;its tax discussion paper, is a welcome development, designed to kick-start the conversation with the community on a range of reform options designed to&nbsp;achieve a simpler&nbsp;and&nbsp;streamlined&nbsp;tax system&nbsp;capable of meeting the growing needs of an ageing population.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;I discuss some of the areas raised in Re:think which are of greatest interest to equity investors: how important income and consumption taxes are to Australia's tax take in a global context,&nbsp;the prospect of the growing drag from bracket creep on household disposable incomes (discretionary retailers), the outlook for the GST (supermarket&nbsp;retailers),&nbsp;the efficacy and viability of the dividend imputation system (high yielders with predominantly domestically oriented operations), the sustainability of the concessional tax treatment of superannuation (asset managers), and the risk associated with companies that have low effective tax rates.

The Government's release&nbsp;of Re:think,&nbsp;its tax discussion paper, is a welcome development, designed to kick-start the conversation with the community on a range of reform options designed to&nbsp;achieve a simpler&nbsp;and&nbsp;streamlined&nbsp;tax system&nbsp;capable of meeting the growing needs of an ageing population.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;I discuss some of the areas raised in Re:think which are of greatest interest to equity investors: how important income and consumption taxes are to Australia's tax take in a global context,&nbsp;the prospect of the growing drag from bracket creep on household disposable incomes (discretionary retailers), the outlook for the GST (supermarket&nbsp;retailers),&nbsp;the efficacy and viability of the dividend imputation system (high yielders with predominantly domestically oriented operations), the sustainability of the concessional tax treatment of superannuation (asset managers), and the risk associated with companies that have low effective tax rates.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Vulcan Energy Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX50, 3 for the ASX100, 3 for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and 16 adds/9 deletes for the ASX300 in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20106:1" rel="noopener">Regis Resources</a> and Greatland Resources are potential inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March and those passive trackers will need to buy stock on the same day.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes for all indices over the last few months, though performance has been flat over the last few weeks for most indices.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX50, 3 for the ASX100, 3 for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 16 adds/9 deletes for the ASX300 in March.

Regis Resources and Greatland Resources are potential inclusions to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March and those passive trackers will need to buy stock on the same day.
The adds have outperformed the deletes for all indices over the last few months, though performance has been flat over the last few weeks for most indices.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2026): 43 Changes Across Indices as Adds Outperform Deletes

<ul>
<li>There could be 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX50, 3 for the ASX100, 4 for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and 17 adds/10 deletes for the ASX300 in March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>While the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, there was a drawdown for most indices in January. Most of that underperformance has now reversed.</li>
</ul>


There could be 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX50, 3 for the ASX100, 4 for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 17 adds/10 deletes for the ASX300 in March.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
While the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, there was a drawdown for most indices in January. Most of that underperformance has now reversed.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. </li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$317mn into "Diversified Meals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$433mn out of "Coal &amp; Consumable Fuels". </li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this (soon-to-be-regular) weekly report include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp (LYC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domino-s-pizza-enterprises" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:700:1" rel="noopener">Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amcor-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:674:1" rel="noopener">Amcor (AMC AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Energy (BOE AU)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. 
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$317mn into "Diversified Meals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$433mn out of "Coal &amp; Consumable Fuels". 
Companies mentioned in this (soon-to-be-regular) weekly report include Lynas Corp (LYC AU), Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US), Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP AU), Amcor (AMC AU), and Boss Energy (BOE AU).  


Aussie Shorts (23rd Jan 2026): Lynas, Light & Wonder, Domino's Pizza, Amcor, Boss Energy

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ifbh-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45067:1" rel="noopener">IFBH (6603 HK)</a> raised US$169m (including over-allocation) from its Hong Kong IPO in June 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone, pre-IPO investors and controlling shareholders is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>IFBH specializes in ready-to-consume beverages and food, with a focus on coconut water and plant-based products. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



IFBH (6603 HK) raised US$169m (including over-allocation) from its Hong Kong IPO in June 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone, pre-IPO investors and controlling shareholders is set to expire soon.
IFBH specializes in ready-to-consume beverages and food, with a focus on coconut water and plant-based products. 
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


IFBH IPO Lockup - US$262m Lockup Release but the Stock Has Nosedived

Australia

Mayne Pharma Group Ltd. develops and manufactures oral pharmaceuticals.  The Company produces branded generics, specialty generics, and active pharmaceutical ingredients.

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Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)

Taxing Times For Australia

The Government's release of Re:think, its tax discussion paper, is a welcome development, designed to kick-start the conversation with the...

Sam Ferraro

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2026): 43 Changes Across Indices as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 43 changes across the ASX changes in March. Couple of the adds could also be added to the GDX in March. The adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

There could be 46 changes across the ASX family of indices in March. Passive trackers need to trade a lot of stock in many names. Some names are...

Brian Freitas

Aussie Shorts (23rd Jan 2026): Lynas, Light & Wonder, Domino's Pizza, Amcor, Boss Energy

Companies mentioned in this (soon-to-be-regular) weekly report include Lynas Corp (LYC AU), Light & Wonder (LNW US), Domino's Pizza Enterprises...

David Blennerhassett

IFBH IPO Lockup - US$262m Lockup Release but the Stock Has Nosedived

IFBH Ltd raised around US$169m from its Hong Kong IPO in June 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone and pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Akshat Shah

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Taxing Times For Australia

The Government's release of Re:think, its tax discussion paper, is a welcome development, designed to kick-start the conversation with the...

Sam Ferraro

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2026): 43 Changes Across Indices as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 43 changes across the ASX changes in March. Couple of the adds could also be added to the GDX in March. The adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

There could be 46 changes across the ASX family of indices in March. Passive trackers need to trade a lot of stock in many names. Some names are...

Brian Freitas

Aussie Shorts (23rd Jan 2026): Lynas, Light & Wonder, Domino's Pizza, Amcor, Boss Energy

Companies mentioned in this (soon-to-be-regular) weekly report include Lynas Corp (LYC AU), Light & Wonder (LNW US), Domino's Pizza Enterprises...

David Blennerhassett

IFBH IPO Lockup - US$262m Lockup Release but the Stock Has Nosedived

IFBH Ltd raised around US$169m from its Hong Kong IPO in June 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone and pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Akshat Shah

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2026): 43 Changes Across Indices as Adds Outperform Deletes

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact