Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>There has been a lot of newsprint lately regarding Apple seeking partners to tie-up with to produce EVs. Bloomberg reports discussion with at least six automakers including Hyundai and Japanese manufacturers, though timelines for launch are still far out at about five years. Bloomberg’s latest report suggests that <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-05/apple-talks-with-hyundai-kia-on-electric-car-paused-recently" target="_blank" rel="noopener">talks with Hyundai have been paused</a> so the question is whether one of the Japanese automakers might step in instead.</p>

There has been a lot of newsprint lately regarding Apple seeking partners to tie-up with to produce EVs. Bloomberg reports discussion with at least six automakers including Hyundai and Japanese manufacturers, though timelines for launch are still far out at about five years. Bloomberg’s latest report suggests that talks with Hyundai have been paused so the question is whether one of the Japanese automakers might step in instead.

Does an Apple Tie-Up Make Sense for J-Autos?

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>On 5 February, a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-05/apple-talks-with-hyundai-kia-on-electric-car-paused-recently" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg article</a> mentioned that the recent talks between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener"> Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)/</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> have been put on hold. It appears that Apple has been in discussions with numerous other auto makers including the Japanese auto companies. </p>
<p>It is clear that Apple has been upset with the Hyundai Motor Group with the secret discussions between the two parties getting openly revealed in the major media outlets. In recent days, it has been<a href="https://appleinsider.com/articles/21/02/05/apple-reportedly-in-talks-with-multiple-japanese-automakers-over-apple-car" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> reported</a> that in addition to the Hyundai Motor Group, Apple is in discussions with <strong>at least six Japanese automakers </strong>including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:794:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP)</a> for potential partnership to develop and produce electric vehicles. </p>
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On 5 February, a Bloomberg article mentioned that the recent talks between Apple Inc (AAPL US) and Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)/Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) have been put on hold. It appears that Apple has been in discussions with numerous other auto makers including the Japanese auto companies. 
It is clear that Apple has been upset with the Hyundai Motor Group with the secret discussions between the two parties getting openly revealed in the major media outlets. In recent days, it has been reported that in addition to the Hyundai Motor Group, Apple is in discussions with at least six Japanese automakers including Nissan Motor (7201 JP) and Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP) for potential partnership to develop and produce electric vehicles. 


Apple - Dumping Hyundai Motor Group in Favor of Japanese Auto Companies to Develop EVs?

<p>Mazda is up 17% after generating ¥844bn in revenue (consensus ¥833bn) and ¥20.9bn in OP (consensus ¥8.5bn) in 3Q. Guidance was revised to breakeven vs. consensus expectations for a ¥21.2bn loss. These were good results but the size of this move shows that sentiment had become far too negative on the company. We believe that will continue to change.</p>

Mazda is up 17% after generating ¥844bn in revenue (consensus ¥833bn) and ¥20.9bn in OP (consensus ¥8.5bn) in 3Q. Guidance was revised to breakeven vs. consensus expectations for a ¥21.2bn loss. These were good results but the size of this move shows that sentiment had become far too negative on the company. We believe that will continue to change.

Mazda – To Chase or Not to Chase? Zoom Zoom Goes 2021 Conviction Pick

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/304/original/2021-01-18_07-21-17.png?1611015356" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183304"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/305/original/2021-01-19_09-18-35.png?1611015525" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183305"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>POLES APART</strong><strong>&amp; ECHOES OF 2000</strong>- As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold (Relative Price Score &lt;-2.0) and those that are OverBought (RPS &gt; 4.0) remains at extreme levels as does the spread in terms of market weight. 7.2% of listed companies are Oversold; while 2.2% are OverBought, but the latter account for 13.7% of market value; the former just 5.4%. The last time both pairs of metrics were at these levels was the 2000 technology bubble.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/321/original/2021-01-19_10-25-51.png?1611019564" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183321"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/323/original/2021-01-19_10-27-10.png?1611019660" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183323"></figure></section><p><strong>BLOW OUT</strong> - As was the case in 2000, the total number of Sectors either OverBought or Oversold is also at an extreme level having peaked at 13 in December. This number has been exceeded only twice in the last fifty years  - in December 1999 (16) and February 2000 (14).   </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/363/original/2021-01-19_12-45-46.png?1611027961" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183363"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/367/original/2021-01-19_13-09-06.png?1611029374" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183367"></figure></section><div><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific recommendations.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>THE JAPAN ANALYTICS RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> -  The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,919 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.</p></div></div></div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsPOLES APART&amp; ECHOES OF 2000- As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold (Relative Price Score &lt;-2.0) and those that are OverBought (RPS &gt; 4.0) remains at extreme levels as does the spread in terms of market weight. 7.2% of listed companies are Oversold; while 2.2% are OverBought, but the latter account for 13.7% of market value; the former just 5.4%. The last time both pairs of metrics were at these levels was the 2000 technology bubble.BLOW OUT - As was the case in 2000, the total number of Sectors either OverBought or Oversold is also at an extreme level having peaked at 13 in December. This number has been exceeded only twice in the last fifty years  - in December 1999 (16) and February 2000 (14).   In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific recommendations.THE JAPAN ANALYTICS RELATIVE PRICE SCORE -  The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,919 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores -  Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

<p>Positive news flow regarding Toyota’s ZEV strategy has driven the stock up 10.5% in the last four days. We have always maintained that Japanese automakers, and the Toyota group in particular, possessed the fundamental technologies necessary to launch EVs when they felt the timing was right. As they start to do so and join other major OEMs such as VW and GM, we believe the narrative bubble surrounding pure EV manufacturers will burst and valuations will collapse. Nevertheless, as the pure EV names are narrative rather than fact driven, timing such a collapse remains difficult. A simpler way of expressing this trade is through a long in traditional automakers with strong ZEV technology who are entering the EV space, where they will take mass market volume away from pure EV manufacturers just as VW has already done to Tesla in Europe.</p>

Positive news flow regarding Toyota’s ZEV strategy has driven the stock up 10.5% in the last four days. We have always maintained that Japanese automakers, and the Toyota group in particular, possessed the fundamental technologies necessary to launch EVs when they felt the timing was right. As they start to do so and join other major OEMs such as VW and GM, we believe the narrative bubble surrounding pure EV manufacturers will burst and valuations will collapse. Nevertheless, as the pure EV names are narrative rather than fact driven, timing such a collapse remains difficult. A simpler way of expressing this trade is through a long in traditional automakers with strong ZEV technology who are entering the EV space, where they will take mass market volume away from pure EV manufacturers just as VW has already done to Tesla in Europe.

Toyota – Solid State Batteries and Long Toyota as a Safer Short on the EV Bubble

Japan

Mazda Motor Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and its accessories.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

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Mazda Motor (7261 JP)

Does an Apple Tie-Up Make Sense for J-Autos?

In the search for potential suitors for Apple's entry into the EV space we examine the likelihood of the major Japanese auto manufacturers...

Mio Kato

Apple - Dumping Hyundai Motor Group in Favor of Japanese Auto Companies to Develop EVs?

On 5 February, a Bloomberg article mentioned that the recent talks between Apple Inc (AAPL US) and Hyundai Motor Group have been put on hold. Apple...

Douglas Kim

Mazda – To Chase or Not to Chase? Zoom Zoom Goes 2021 Conviction Pick

Mazda is up 17% after delivering good but not stunning results, illustrating how excessively negative sentiment in the sector had become. Zoom Zoom

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores - Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold and those that are...

Campbell Gunn

Toyota – Solid State Batteries and Long Toyota as a Safer Short on the EV Bubble

A simpler and safer way of expressing a short trade on the EV bubble is a long trade in traditional automakers with the technology to transition to...

Mio Kato

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