Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-business-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40379:1" rel="noopener">Japan Business Systems (5036 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orion-breweries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45701:1" rel="noopener">Orion Breweries (409A JP)</a> were included in the TOPIX index at the end of October 2025. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-eyewear-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40217:1" rel="noopener">Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fit-easy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45319:1" rel="noopener">FIT EASY (212A JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tekscend-photomask-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45819:1" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)</a> will be included in the TOPIX index at the end of November 2025.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.

Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) and Orion Breweries (409A JP) were included in the TOPIX index at the end of October 2025. 

Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP), FIT EASY (212A JP), and Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) will be included in the TOPIX index at the end of November 2025.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Nov 2025)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.</li>
<li>Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.</li>
<li>The forecast deletes have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX</a> on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.</li>
</ul>


There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.


Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "<strong>Who is Ready</strong>" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>In the last few days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunwels-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43702:1" rel="noopener">SUNWELS Co (9229 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macbee-planet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39863:1" rel="noopener">Macbee Planet (7095 JP)</a> have announced their moves to TSE prime which would eventually trigger a TOPIX Inclusion event.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macbee-planet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39863:1" rel="noopener">Macbee Planet</a> was in our highest conviction list but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunwels-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43702:1" rel="noopener">SUNWELS Co</a> was not. In this insight, we have made some modifications to our methodology to improve future hit rates.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
In the last few days, SUNWELS Co (9229 JP) and Macbee Planet (7095 JP) have announced their moves to TSE prime which would eventually trigger a TOPIX Inclusion event.

Macbee Planet was in our highest conviction list but SUNWELS Co was not. In this insight, we have made some modifications to our methodology to improve future hit rates.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (July 2024)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>On 28 Feb, the Nikkei <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Mitsubishi-readies-sale-of-stake-in-KFC-restaurant-chain-in-Japan" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> (an article I missed) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> would seek to unload its 35% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a> </li>
<li>The stock popped, then continued to rise further. After the close Friday, the Nikkei <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Carlyle-nears-deal-to-buy-KFC-Japan-s-shares-from-Mitsubishi-Corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> MitCorp was close to a deal with Carlyle. A deal is apparently expected imminently.</li>
<li>I expect this could be a "Split Price Deal" (like Hitachi Transport and Pasona).</li>
</ul>


On 28 Feb, the Nikkei reported (an article I missed) Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) would seek to unload its 35% stake in Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP) 
The stock popped, then continued to rise further. After the close Friday, the Nikkei reported MitCorp was close to a deal with Carlyle. A deal is apparently expected imminently.
I expect this could be a "Split Price Deal" (like Hitachi Transport and Pasona).


Carlyle Reportedly To Buy KFC Japan (9873) From MitCorp (8058) - Deal Likely Imminent

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furuya-metal-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5196:1" rel="noopener">Furuya Metal (7826 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visional-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32977:1" rel="noopener">Visional (4194 JP)</a> are expected to be included in the TOPIX index at the end of January 2024</li>
<li>There are couple of other pre-event names that we have been tracking for the past few months.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.

Furuya Metal (7826 JP) and Visional (4194 JP) are expected to be included in the TOPIX index at the end of January 2024
There are couple of other pre-event names that we have been tracking for the past few months.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2024)

Japan

McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd. operates a hamburger fast food restaurant chain throughout Japan.  The Company operates its own stores and franchise stores.

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Mcdonald's Japan (2702 JP)

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Nov 2025)

There are currently 140 names that satisfy all 5 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 137 names can satisfy 4 out of 5...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Tomorrow is going to be a huge volume day in Japan as the global index rebalances. Kokusai Electric has bounced as expected and there could be more...

Brian Freitas

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (July 2024)

We have revised our framework to improve the weightings for the key factors in the TSE Prime transfer requirements. Now we see 81 names that can...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Carlyle Reportedly To Buy KFC Japan (9873) From MitCorp (8058) - Deal Likely Imminent

The Nikkei reported two months ago that MitCorp would sell its 35% KFC Japan (9873) stake. Two months later, we may have a deal imminent.

Travis Lundy

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2024)

There are currently 70 names that satisfy all 6 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 78 names can satisfy 5 out of 6...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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