Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<strong>1Q26 Revenue</strong>: NT$141.2-150.2bn, <strong>flat to -6% QoQ</strong>, -2% to -8% YoY; Gross Margin: 46% ±1.5%; OpEx Ratio: 31% ±2%.  </li>
<li>Flagship market share will continue to gain. Blended ASP increasing generation after generation. Overall shipment under pressure from memory situation, but balanced by share/ASP gains.</li>
<li>2026 is tough/cyclical, but demand will come back in force (next year or 1.5 years). MediaTek position much stronger than previous cycles (6th year of 5G).</li>
</ul>



1Q26 Revenue: NT$141.2-150.2bn, flat to -6% QoQ, -2% to -8% YoY; Gross Margin: 46% ±1.5%; OpEx Ratio: 31% ±2%.  
Flagship market share will continue to gain. Blended ASP increasing generation after generation. Overall shipment under pressure from memory situation, but balanced by share/ASP gains.
2026 is tough/cyclical, but demand will come back in force (next year or 1.5 years). MediaTek position much stronger than previous cycles (6th year of 5G).


MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q26 Rev Flat To -6% QoQ; Flagship Share Gains.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Weak 3Q reported, weak 4Q guidance (Operating Margin) due to wafer price, some TSMC tightness (5-3nm), Opex increase. This should continue into 2026. Consensus too high. That should be negative.</li>
<li>But Management provides a very upbeat ASIC guidance: $1bn revenue in ’26, several bn in ‘27 , OP margin accretive at some point. Short-term pain, long-term gain.</li>
<li>MTK posits itself as the next ASIC disruptor, has several codesigns with Nvidia. But that’s material in ’27. The stock is down -8% YTD. Underperformance continues at least in 1H26.</li>
</ul>


Weak 3Q reported, weak 4Q guidance (Operating Margin) due to wafer price, some TSMC tightness (5-3nm), Opex increase. This should continue into 2026. Consensus too high. That should be negative.
But Management provides a very upbeat ASIC guidance: $1bn revenue in ’26, several bn in ‘27 , OP margin accretive at some point. Short-term pain, long-term gain.
MTK posits itself as the next ASIC disruptor, has several codesigns with Nvidia. But that’s material in ’27. The stock is down -8% YTD. Underperformance continues at least in 1H26.


Mediatek 3Q25: Good News (ASIC Revenue) But Weak Margins Getting Weaker. Stock Not Attractive.

<ul>
<li>4Q25 Guidance: Revenue is NT$142.1 – 150.1 bn (+0 – 6% QoQ, +3 – 9% YoY); Gross margin is 46% ± 1.5ppt; Opex ratio is 31% ± 2ppt.</li>
<li>Cloud ASIC TAM: Raised from US$40bn → ≥ US$50bn by 2028; MediaTek targeting ≥ 10–15% share; Gross Margin: 4Q dip from mix; 2026 to benefit from repricing + high-value allocation</li>
<li>MediaTek continues to execute on a dual-engine AI strategy. Despite near-term margin pressure from mix and FX, the company is building a foundation for sustainable profit growth.</li>
</ul>


4Q25 Guidance: Revenue is NT$142.1 – 150.1 bn (+0 – 6% QoQ, +3 – 9% YoY); Gross margin is 46% ± 1.5ppt; Opex ratio is 31% ± 2ppt.
Cloud ASIC TAM: Raised from US$40bn → ≥ US$50bn by 2028; MediaTek targeting ≥ 10–15% share; Gross Margin: 4Q dip from mix; 2026 to benefit from repricing + high-value allocation
MediaTek continues to execute on a dual-engine AI strategy. Despite near-term margin pressure from mix and FX, the company is building a foundation for sustainable profit growth.


MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q25 GM Eases on Mix; 2025 Record Revenue; 2026 AI Upswing Begins

<ul>
<li>Smartphone units increase ~3% YoY, that’s slightly better than 1H26 at ~1.5%, but still low growth.   </li>
<li>Premium replacement demand is solid (Samsung, iPhone 17).  Improvements in Emerging Markets (Xiaomi, Transsion, vivo).   </li>
<li>Mediatek reports on 31 Oct, Qualcomm on 5 Nov.  Their Smartphone business isn’t a driver given tepid growth. New ventures revenue timeline is the question.</li>
</ul>


Smartphone units increase ~3% YoY, that’s slightly better than 1H26 at ~1.5%, but still low growth.   
Premium replacement demand is solid (Samsung, iPhone 17).  Improvements in Emerging Markets (Xiaomi, Transsion, vivo).   
Mediatek reports on 31 Oct, Qualcomm on 5 Nov.  Their Smartphone business isn’t a driver given tepid growth. New ventures revenue timeline is the question.


Smartphone 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 8th. The aggregated holding was USD2,409.2bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD6,235mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology, Zhen Ding Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 8th. The aggregated holding was USD2,409.2bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD6,235mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology, Zhen Ding Technology.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 8th): Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

Mediatek 3Q25: Good News (ASIC Revenue) But Weak Margins Getting Weaker. Stock Not Attractive.

Weak 3Q and 4Q guidance due to wafer price and TSMC tightness, but upbeat ASIC guidance for long-term growth. MTK positioning as next ASIC...

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q25 GM Eases on Mix; 2025 Record Revenue; 2026 AI Upswing Begins

MediaTek's 4Q25 guidance shows revenue growth and margin stability, with a focus on expanding Cloud ASIC TAM and AI strategy for long-term profit...

Patrick Liao

Smartphone 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little

Smartphone unit growth remains low at ~3% YoY, with premium replacement demand solid and improvements in Emerging Markets.

Nicolas Baratte

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 8th): Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q26 Rev Flat To -6% QoQ; Flagship Share Gains.

​1Q26 revenue expected to be flat to -6% QoQ, with flagship market share gaining and blended ASP increasing. Despite memory pressure, MediaTek's...

Patrick Liao

Mediatek 3Q25: Good News (ASIC Revenue) But Weak Margins Getting Weaker. Stock Not Attractive.

​Weak 3Q and 4Q guidance due to wafer price and TSMC tightness, but upbeat ASIC guidance for long-term growth. MTK positioning as next ASIC...

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q25 GM Eases on Mix; 2025 Record Revenue; 2026 AI Upswing Begins

​MediaTek's 4Q25 guidance shows revenue growth and margin stability, with a focus on expanding Cloud ASIC TAM and AI strategy for long-term profit...

Patrick Liao

Smartphone 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little

​Smartphone unit growth remains low at ~3% YoY, with premium replacement demand solid and improvements in Emerging Markets.

Nicolas Baratte

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 8th): Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Wiwynn, MediaTek, TSMC, Unimicron Technology,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

1Q26 revenue expected to be flat to -6% QoQ, with flagship market share gaining and blended ASP increasing. Despite memory pressure, MediaTek's...

Weak 3Q and 4Q guidance due to wafer price and TSMC tightness, but upbeat ASIC guidance for long-term growth. MTK positioning as next ASIC...

MediaTek's 4Q25 guidance shows revenue growth and margin stability, with a focus on expanding Cloud ASIC TAM and AI strategy for long-term profit...

Smartphone unit growth remains low at ~3% YoY, with premium replacement demand solid and improvements in Emerging Markets.