Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We anticipate that 2H26 may not be strong for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>, and a typical peak season demand is unlikely.</li>
<li>Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance issued an urgent response: the current unified deadline for the 2025 national subsidy policy remains December 31, 2025.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> recently underperforms among large-cap stocks due to delay in Google's Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) project, affecting next year’s revenue and profit.</li>
</ul>


We anticipate that 2H26 may not be strong for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), and a typical peak season demand is unlikely.
Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance issued an urgent response: the current unified deadline for the 2025 national subsidy policy remains December 31, 2025.

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) recently underperforms among large-cap stocks due to delay in Google's Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) project, affecting next year’s revenue and profit.


MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 16 adds and 6 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$12.4bn.</li>
<li>The ETF has started trading the stocks and are expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days. In reality, the process could drag on for some stocks.</li>
<li>The index committee appears to have a little discretion in choosing the inclusions with one expected add not being added and one lower ranked stock being added to the index.</li>
</ul>


There are 16 adds and 6 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$12.4bn.
The ETF has started trading the stocks and are expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days. In reality, the process could drag on for some stocks.
The index committee appears to have a little discretion in choosing the inclusions with one expected add not being added and one lower ranked stock being added to the index.


TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: 22 Changes as Expected

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Mediatek beats in 1Q, good guidance for 2Q, but close to Consensus. Several positives in 2025: flagship smartphone gains, smartphone AI upgrades, strong WiFi and Connectivity growth, progress in Auto.</li>
<li>How large is the “sizable revenue” opportunity of data center custom ASICs from 2026? Management sounds increasingly positive / confident. The stock valuations reflect this.</li>
<li>The stock trades at 18.5x 2025 EPS, 15.5x 2026 EPS, not extravagant but on the high-end. If you have the stock, keep it. If you don’t, TSMC looks more interesting.  </li>
</ul>


Mediatek beats in 1Q, good guidance for 2Q, but close to Consensus. Several positives in 2025: flagship smartphone gains, smartphone AI upgrades, strong WiFi and Connectivity growth, progress in Auto.
How large is the “sizable revenue” opportunity of data center custom ASICs from 2026? Management sounds increasingly positive / confident. The stock valuations reflect this.
The stock trades at 18.5x 2025 EPS, 15.5x 2026 EPS, not extravagant but on the high-end. If you have the stock, keep it. If you don’t, TSMC looks more interesting.  


Mediatek 1Q25 6% Beat, Growth Accelerating in 2Q, Large Revenue Opportunity for Data Center ASIC

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>
MediaTek and Nvidia expected to unveil joint ARM-based AI PC SoCs at Computex May 19 - 23; a major milestone for Mediatek expanding into the massive Windows PC market.</li>
<li>
We will be looking to see how the new chips are positioned; To highlight full local LLM inference; enabling private, real-time AI at the edge for PCs?</li>
<li>
We maintain our Structural Long view for Mediatek shares; MediaTek is evolving from mobile SoC leader to full-stack AI compute player across smartphones, PCs, and data centers.</li>
</ul>



MediaTek and Nvidia expected to unveil joint ARM-based AI PC SoCs at Computex May 19 - 23; a major milestone for Mediatek expanding into the massive Windows PC market.

We will be looking to see how the new chips are positioned; To highlight full local LLM inference; enabling private, real-time AI at the edge for PCs?

We maintain our Structural Long view for Mediatek shares; MediaTek is evolving from mobile SoC leader to full-stack AI compute player across smartphones, PCs, and data centers.


Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected

<ul>
<li>
MediaTek beat 1Q25 EPS expectations as Smart Edge and mobile segments delivered strong sequential growth; flagship SoC traction supports improved ASP mix.</li>
<li>
AI remains central to strategy: NVIDIA partnership progressing -- NT$1bn AI ASIC revenue targeted for 2026.</li>
<li>
Tariff-Driven macro caution clouds 2H outlook, but we maintain Structural Long view -- AI, auto, and premium mobile SoCs drive long-term opportunity.</li>
</ul>



MediaTek beat 1Q25 EPS expectations as Smart Edge and mobile segments delivered strong sequential growth; flagship SoC traction supports improved ASP mix.

AI remains central to strategy: NVIDIA partnership progressing -- NT$1bn AI ASIC revenue targeted for 2026.

Tariff-Driven macro caution clouds 2H outlook, but we maintain Structural Long view -- AI, auto, and premium mobile SoCs drive long-term opportunity.


MediaTek 1Q25 Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Strength, But 2H Visibility Remains Murky Due to Tariffs

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026.

Weak 2H26 outlook for Mediatek Inc due to lack of peak season demand, underperformance linked to Google TPU project delay impacting future...

Patrick Liao

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: 22 Changes as Expected

A change in index methodology leads to 16 adds and 6 deletes in June. The ETF has started trading the stocks and will continue to trade for the...

Brian Freitas

Mediatek 1Q25 6% Beat, Growth Accelerating in 2Q, Large Revenue Opportunity for Data Center ASIC

Mediatek's strong performance in 1Q and positive outlook for 2Q, with potential growth in flagship smartphones, AI upgrades, and connectivity, but...

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek 1Q25 Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Strength, But 2H Visibility Remains Murky Due to Tariffs

MediaTek surpasses 1Q25 EPS expectations with strong growth in Smart Edge and mobile segments. Tariff concerns impact 2H outlook, but long-term...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026.

​Weak 2H26 outlook for Mediatek Inc due to lack of peak season demand, underperformance linked to Google TPU project delay impacting future...

Patrick Liao

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: 22 Changes as Expected

A change in index methodology leads to 16 adds and 6 deletes in June. The ETF has started trading the stocks and will continue to trade for the...

Brian Freitas

Mediatek 1Q25 6% Beat, Growth Accelerating in 2Q, Large Revenue Opportunity for Data Center ASIC

​Mediatek's strong performance in 1Q and positive outlook for 2Q, with potential growth in flagship smartphones, AI upgrades, and connectivity, but...

Nicolas Baratte

Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected

​MediaTek and Nvidia likely to unveil joint ARM-based AI PC SoCs at Computex, marking a milestone for MediaTek in Windows PC market. Evolving from...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek 1Q25 Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Strength, But 2H Visibility Remains Murky Due to Tariffs

​MediaTek surpasses 1Q25 EPS expectations with strong growth in Smart Edge and mobile segments. Tariff concerns impact 2H outlook, but long-term...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Weak 2H26 outlook for Mediatek Inc due to lack of peak season demand, underperformance linked to Google TPU project delay impacting future...

Mediatek's strong performance in 1Q and positive outlook for 2Q, with potential growth in flagship smartphones, AI upgrades, and connectivity, but...

MediaTek and Nvidia likely to unveil joint ARM-based AI PC SoCs at Computex, marking a milestone for MediaTek in Windows PC market. Evolving from...

MediaTek surpasses 1Q25 EPS expectations with strong growth in Smart Edge and mobile segments. Tariff concerns impact 2H outlook, but long-term...