Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MediaTek's 4Q23F revenue guidance falls in line with our prior expectation. The general outlook is for double-digit growth in 2024F.</li>
<li>MediaTek believes that the 3nm SoC will certainly perform differently in 2H24F.  </li>
<li>MediaTek will pay NT$24 DPS for 1H23 earnings, and the dividend will be paid on 1/31, 2024F.</li>
</ul>


MediaTek's 4Q23F revenue guidance falls in line with our prior expectation. The general outlook is for double-digit growth in 2024F.
MediaTek believes that the 3nm SoC will certainly perform differently in 2H24F.  
MediaTek will pay NT$24 DPS for 1H23 earnings, and the dividend will be paid on 1/31, 2024F.


MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q23F Results in Line, 2024F Smartphone Outlook Can Grow a Double Digits.

<ul>
<li>We change our stance to be a bit bullish for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>.</li>
<li>In 4Q23F, MediaTek's outlook is getting a bit stronger upside.</li>
<li>The Smartphone market is turning positive, but it's too early to claim a fully rebound.</li>
</ul>


We change our stance to be a bit bullish for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT).
In 4Q23F, MediaTek's outlook is getting a bit stronger upside.
The Smartphone market is turning positive, but it's too early to claim a fully rebound.


MediaTek (2454.TT): Smartphone Is Turning a Bit Stronger

<ul>
<li>There is a misconception that "MediaTek is gaining the Google TPU v7 project entirely in 2024-25F."</li>
<li>Transsion Holding is placing a new order with MediaTek in 4Q23F, which is larger than ~25mn and has the lowest ASP.</li>
<li>Our current view remains bearish on smartphone demand for 2H23F.</li>
</ul>


There is a misconception that "MediaTek is gaining the Google TPU v7 project entirely in 2024-25F."
Transsion Holding is placing a new order with MediaTek in 4Q23F, which is larger than ~25mn and has the lowest ASP.
Our current view remains bearish on smartphone demand for 2H23F.


MediaTek (2454.TT): Gaining Google TPU V7 Project Entirely Could Be a Misconception

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Mediatek shares rallied recently on high volume and are approaching their 52-week highs. We however warn investors to beware emerging news of Huawei/SMIC's chip capabilities.</li>
<li>Mediatek announced last week its flagship mobile phone chip was preparing for high volume manufacturing with TSMC's most advanced 3-nanometer process node.</li>
<li>However, we believe Huawei's recent Mate 60 chip development could pose a threat to Mediatek's market share outlook. We downgrade our rating from Structural Long to Neutral, target price NT$815.</li>
</ul>


Mediatek shares rallied recently on high volume and are approaching their 52-week highs. We however warn investors to beware emerging news of Huawei/SMIC's chip capabilities.
Mediatek announced last week its flagship mobile phone chip was preparing for high volume manufacturing with TSMC's most advanced 3-nanometer process node.
However, we believe Huawei's recent Mate 60 chip development could pose a threat to Mediatek's market share outlook. We downgrade our rating from Structural Long to Neutral, target price NT$815.


Mediatek Downgrade: After Rally, Beware Emerging News of Huawei/SMIC Chip Capability

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Although it is still early to determine the extent of the utilization rate that could be reached in UMC for 2Q24F, there is a greater chance for a rebound.</li>
<li>UMC's high-end technology, specifically 28nm, has a utilization rate of over 80% in 4Q23F. </li>
<li>MediaTek is UMC's largest client, dominating in WiFi, TV SoC, Bluetooth, and other areas.</li>
</ul>


Although it is still early to determine the extent of the utilization rate that could be reached in UMC for 2Q24F, there is a greater chance for a rebound.
UMC's high-end technology, specifically 28nm, has a utilization rate of over 80% in 4Q23F. 
MediaTek is UMC's largest client, dominating in WiFi, TV SoC, Bluetooth, and other areas.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): There Is a Greater Chance for a Rebound in 2Q24F.

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q23F Results in Line, 2024F Smartphone Outlook Can Grow a Double Digits.

MediaTek's 4Q23F revenue guidance falls in line with our prior expectation. The general outlook is for double-digit growth in 2024F. The 3nm SoC...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): Smartphone Is Turning a Bit Stronger

We change our stance to be slightly bullish for MediaTek. In 4Q23F, MediaTek's outlook is becoming stronger. The smartphone market is turning...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): Gaining Google TPU V7 Project Entirely Could Be a Misconception

There is a misconception "MediaTek is gaining the Google TPU v7 project in 2024-25F." Transsion Holding is placing a new order with MediaTek in...

Patrick Liao

Mediatek Downgrade: After Rally, Beware Emerging News of Huawei/SMIC Chip Capability

We believe Huawei's recent Mate 60 chip development could pose a threat to Mediatek's market share outlook. We downgrade our rating from Structural...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): There Is a Greater Chance for a Rebound in 2Q24F.

UMC's 28nm has a utilization rate of over 80% in 4Q23F. It is early to determine the utilization rate could be reached in 2Q24F, there is a greater...

Patrick Liao

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