Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Mediatek's results for 4Q23 exceeded expectations; Forward guidance also suggests that consensus forecasts for 2024 may need to be revised upward.</li>
<li>Foresees the start of its "next growth phase" in 2024, with AI influencing mobile upgrades and the introduction of new products in late 2025, indicating potential growth through 2026E.</li>
<li>Mediatek indicated that AI interest will drive high-end mobile devices to gain market share in 2024E.</li>
</ul>


Mediatek's results for 4Q23 exceeded expectations; Forward guidance also suggests that consensus forecasts for 2024 may need to be revised upward.
Foresees the start of its "next growth phase" in 2024, with AI influencing mobile upgrades and the introduction of new products in late 2025, indicating potential growth through 2026E.
Mediatek indicated that AI interest will drive high-end mobile devices to gain market share in 2024E.


Mediatek Results Take-Aways: High-End Devices to Take Market Share Globally; Upward Revisions Likely

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>MediaTek expects a reduced DOI level in 2024F while maintaining operating expenses and pricing discipline in 2023.</li>
<li>The upgrade cycle has begun for devices equipped with AI functions. The Dimensity 9300 is just the first edge AI product for smartphones. </li>
<li>MediaTek does not predict a significant increase in demand and expects a steady demand for smartphones. </li>
</ul>


MediaTek expects a reduced DOI level in 2024F while maintaining operating expenses and pricing discipline in 2023.
The upgrade cycle has begun for devices equipped with AI functions. The Dimensity 9300 is just the first edge AI product for smartphones. 
MediaTek does not predict a significant increase in demand and expects a steady demand for smartphones. 


MediaTek (2454.TT): 2024F Indicating a Complete Recovery from the Previous Downturn Situation.

<ul>
<li>The WiFi technology was dominated by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-corp-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:999:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom Corp Cl A (BRCM US)</a>, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F.</li>
<li>There are speculations that Apple might use MediaTek's WiFi 7 solution in 2024F or consider MediaTek as a potential chip provider.</li>
<li>MediaTek will be using 6nm technology for WiFi 7, replacing the current 28nm technology used for WiFi 6.</li>
</ul>


The WiFi technology was dominated by Broadcom Corp Cl A (BRCM US), but Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F.
There are speculations that Apple might use MediaTek's WiFi 7 solution in 2024F or consider MediaTek as a potential chip provider.
MediaTek will be using 6nm technology for WiFi 7, replacing the current 28nm technology used for WiFi 6.


MediaTek (2454.TT): The WiFi 7 Chip Competition Is Likely to Become Fierce in 2024.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The percentage of Global funds invested in Taiwan hits an all-time high of 57.8%.</li>
<li>Taiwan has been a key beneficiary of manager rotation alongside India, Argentina and South Korea over the last 6-months.</li>
<li>TSMC is the dominant stock holding, with 49.8% of funds holding a position and has hit record ownership among Global funds.</li>
</ul>


The percentage of Global funds invested in Taiwan hits an all-time high of 57.8%.
Taiwan has been a key beneficiary of manager rotation alongside India, Argentina and South Korea over the last 6-months.
TSMC is the dominant stock holding, with 49.8% of funds holding a position and has hit record ownership among Global funds.


Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

MediaTek (2454.TT): 2024F Indicating a Complete Recovery from the Previous Downturn Situation.

MediaTek anticipates lower DOI in 2024 but maintains pricing discipline and operating expenses. The D9300 marks the start of the AI upgrade cycle...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): The WiFi 7 Chip Competition Is Likely to Become Fierce in 2024.

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F. In 2024, MediaTek aims to potentially supplying WiFi 7 chips to...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers

Taiwan hits record levels of exposure among actively managed Global equity funds, yet it still lags behind its counterparts in the USA and Europe.

Steven Holden

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What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Mediatek Results Take-Aways: High-End Devices to Take Market Share Globally; Upward Revisions Likely

​Mediatek's strong 4Q23 results and positive forward guidance indicate potential growth visibility through 2026E, driven by AI and new product...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek (2454.TT): 2024F Indicating a Complete Recovery from the Previous Downturn Situation.

​MediaTek anticipates lower DOI in 2024 but maintains pricing discipline and operating expenses. The D9300 marks the start of the AI upgrade cycle...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): The WiFi 7 Chip Competition Is Likely to Become Fierce in 2024.

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F. ​In 2024, MediaTek aims to potentially supplying WiFi 7 chips to...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers

Taiwan hits record levels of exposure among actively managed Global equity funds, yet it still lags behind its counterparts in the USA and Europe.

Steven Holden

Mediatek's strong 4Q23 results and positive forward guidance indicate potential growth visibility through 2026E, driven by AI and new product...

MediaTek anticipates lower DOI in 2024 but maintains pricing discipline and operating expenses. The D9300 marks the start of the AI upgrade cycle...

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F. In 2024, MediaTek aims to potentially supplying WiFi 7 chips to...