Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenue declined by a single-digit percentage quarter over quarter. However, it is expected to improve in the following quarters. </li>
<li>Automotive applications are currently undergoing inventory adjustments, while consumer applications are entering the low season. Electric Vehicle components are expected to continue growing.</li>
<li>It will still maintain the previous payout level of NTD$4.5.</li>
</ul>


Revenue declined by a single-digit percentage quarter over quarter. However, it is expected to improve in the following quarters. 
Automotive applications are currently undergoing inventory adjustments, while consumer applications are entering the low season. Electric Vehicle components are expected to continue growing.
It will still maintain the previous payout level of NTD$4.5.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F In-Line with Our Expectation, Following a Upside Quarter over Quarter.

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASEH expects inventory adjustments to be completed in 1H24 and the growth to accelerate in 2H24. ASEH also expects IC-ATM to grow similarly to the semiconductor logic market in 2024H.</li>
<li>The 1Q24F guidance is looking at sales and GM levels for both IC ATM and EMS to be similar to 1Q23 levels.</li>
<li>Most customers will be back on the recovery path by at least 3Q24F.  </li>
</ul>


ASEH expects inventory adjustments to be completed in 1H24 and the growth to accelerate in 2H24. ASEH also expects IC-ATM to grow similarly to the semiconductor logic market in 2024H.
The 1Q24F guidance is looking at sales and GM levels for both IC ATM and EMS to be similar to 1Q23 levels.
Most customers will be back on the recovery path by at least 3Q24F.  


ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): Expects 2Q24F Back to Normal Seasonality and 2H24 Will Start the Recovery.

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 1Q24F guidance is expected to decrease by 2-3% QoQ. However, we believe there is a good chance of achieving a flat QoQ performance.</li>
<li>Production is expected to be ready by 2027F, with the process likely to be prepared by 2025F and enter pilot run in 2026F.  </li>
<li>The semiconductor market is expected to grow at a high single-digit rate, while the foundry market is expected to grow close to 10% YoY in 2024F.  </li>
</ul>


The 1Q24F guidance is expected to decrease by 2-3% QoQ. However, we believe there is a good chance of achieving a flat QoQ performance.
Production is expected to be ready by 2027F, with the process likely to be prepared by 2025F and enter pilot run in 2026F.  
The semiconductor market is expected to grow at a high single-digit rate, while the foundry market is expected to grow close to 10% YoY in 2024F.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Guidance Is Slightly Lower than 4Q23; Intel Project Grasps Attention

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 26th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,475.7bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD16,322mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Alchip Tech, Pharmaessentia, Asmedia Tech, Umc, Global Unichip, Wistron, Gigabyte Tech, Largan Precision, Delta Elec.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 26th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,475.7bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD16,322mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Alchip Tech, Pharmaessentia, Asmedia Tech, Umc, Global Unichip, Wistron, Gigabyte Tech, Largan Precision, Delta Elec.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 26th): TSMC, Alchip Tech, Pharmaessentia, Asmedia Tech, Umc

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ase-technology-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27270:1" rel="noopener">ASE Technology Holding (3711 TT)</a> 1Q24F outlook may be dim due to normal seasonality, resulting in a decline of mid-to-high single digits in revenue.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> are expected to experience a strong rebound.</li>
<li>The 2024F outlook for ASEH indicates a low double-digit YoY growth.  </li>
</ul>


The ASE Technology Holding (3711 TT) 1Q24F outlook may be dim due to normal seasonality, resulting in a decline of mid-to-high single digits in revenue.

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are expected to experience a strong rebound.
The 2024F outlook for ASEH indicates a low double-digit YoY growth.  


ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Could Be Down Slightly QoQ; 2024F Should Grow ~10% YoY

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F In-Line with Our Expectation, Following a Upside Quarter over Quarter.

Quarterly sales declined but is expected to improve. Auto application are adjusting inventory, while consumer applications are entering a low...

Patrick Liao

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): Expects 2Q24F Back to Normal Seasonality and 2H24 Will Start the Recovery.

ASEH anticipates completing inventory adjustments in the first half of 2024. 1Q24F guidance suggests sales and GM levels for IC ATM and EMS will...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Guidance Is Slightly Lower than 4Q23; Intel Project Grasps Attention

The 1Q24F guidance may decrease slightly, but there is potential for a steady performance. Production in Intel's Fab is set for 2027F. Currently,...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 26th): TSMC, Alchip Tech, Pharmaessentia, Asmedia Tech, Umc

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Alchip Tech, Pharmaessentia, Asmedia Tech,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Could Be Down Slightly QoQ; 2024F Should Grow ~10% YoY

ASEH 1Q24F outlook is expected for a mid-to high single digits QoQ decline. Mediatek and NVDA are anticipated to a strong rebound in 1Q24F. ASEH's...

Patrick Liao

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Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F In-Line with Our Expectation, Following a Upside Quarter over Quarter.

​Quarterly sales declined but is expected to improve. Auto application are adjusting inventory, while consumer applications are entering a low...

Patrick Liao

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): Expects 2Q24F Back to Normal Seasonality and 2H24 Will Start the Recovery.

​ASEH anticipates completing inventory adjustments in the first half of 2024. 1Q24F guidance suggests sales and GM levels for IC ATM and EMS will...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Guidance Is Slightly Lower than 4Q23; Intel Project Grasps Attention

The 1Q24F guidance may decrease slightly, but there is potential for a steady performance. Production in Intel's Fab is set for 2027F. Currently,...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 26th): TSMC, Alchip Tech, Pharmaessentia, Asmedia Tech, Umc

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Alchip Tech, Pharmaessentia, Asmedia Tech,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Could Be Down Slightly QoQ; 2024F Should Grow ~10% YoY

​ASEH 1Q24F outlook is expected for a mid-to high single digits QoQ decline. Mediatek and NVDA are anticipated to a strong rebound in 1Q24F. ASEH's...

Patrick Liao

Quarterly sales declined but is expected to improve. Auto application are adjusting inventory, while consumer applications are entering a low...

ASEH anticipates completing inventory adjustments in the first half of 2024. 1Q24F guidance suggests sales and GM levels for IC ATM and EMS will...

ASEH 1Q24F outlook is expected for a mid-to high single digits QoQ decline. Mediatek and NVDA are anticipated to a strong rebound in 1Q24F. ASEH's...