Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC decided to notify clients that it will raise wafer price about 6% from the beginning of 2023.</li>
<li>It's believed the Fabless company's margin could be raised too much, which is considered to be abnormal.</li>
<li>There are too many factors influencing the market right now, like the inflation, geopolitical confrontation,  Russia-Ukraine war, supply-chain risks, and etc.</li>
</ul>


TSMC decided to notify clients that it will raise wafer price about 6% from the beginning of 2023.
It's believed the Fabless company's margin could be raised too much, which is considered to be abnormal.
There are too many factors influencing the market right now, like the inflation, geopolitical confrontation,  Russia-Ukraine war, supply-chain risks, and etc.


TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): Further Wafer Price Raise About 6% from the Beginning of 2023

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>April was another tough month for active Asia Ex-Japan managers. Average returns of -6.18% lagged the MSCI Asia Ex-Japan index by -1.02%, with just 27.8% of funds beating the benchmark.</li>
<li>On the year so far, more than 80% of Asia Ex-Japan funds are underperforming the benchmark. Returns are largely correlated to Style, with Value outperforming Growth by +6.5%.</li>
<li>Overweights in both Mediatek Inc and Sea Ltd  have been the most costly on the year, in addition to a number of underweights in the key state run China banks</li>
</ul>


April was another tough month for active Asia Ex-Japan managers. Average returns of -6.18% lagged the MSCI Asia Ex-Japan index by -1.02%, with just 27.8% of funds beating the benchmark.
On the year so far, more than 80% of Asia Ex-Japan funds are underperforming the benchmark. Returns are largely correlated to Style, with Value outperforming Growth by +6.5%.
Overweights in both Mediatek Inc and Sea Ltd  have been the most costly on the year, in addition to a number of underweights in the key state run China banks


Asia Ex-Japan:  MediaTek, Sea Ltd and China Banks Weigh on Performance

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s</a> underperformance to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> just part of the cycle or company specific?</li>
<li>Does the supply constraint issue help or hurt Samsung?  Who is better off? </li>
<li>Key points to focus on to see where Samsung is vs. their blueprint of technology roadmap</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s underperformance to SK Hynix (000660 KS) just part of the cycle or company specific?
Does the supply constraint issue help or hurt Samsung?  Who is better off? 
Key points to focus on to see where Samsung is vs. their blueprint of technology roadmap


Is Samsung in Trouble or Just in Another Downcycle?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.</li>
<li>Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a> has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.
Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.

China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.


Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

<ul>
<li>The 1Q22 revenue beat the prior guidance, GM was in-line the guidance. The guidance is within our expectation in 2Q22.  </li>
<li>MediaTek believes they shall be on the right track to grow revenue 20% and the GM 48-50%, and MediaTek has a 3-year target to grow mid-teens percentage from 2022.</li>
<li>For shareholders, the board had approved NTD$37 for cash dividend in this year.</li>
</ul>


The 1Q22 revenue beat the prior guidance, GM was in-line the guidance. The guidance is within our expectation in 2Q22.  
MediaTek believes they shall be on the right track to grow revenue 20% and the GM 48-50%, and MediaTek has a 3-year target to grow mid-teens percentage from 2022.
For shareholders, the board had approved NTD$37 for cash dividend in this year.


MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q22 Results/ 2Q22 Outlook-1Q Revenue Beat, 2Q22 Forecast Is in Line.

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): Further Wafer Price Raise About 6% from the Beginning of 2023

TSMC will raise wafer price about 6% for all product lines since the beginning of 2023. It's believed the Fabless company's margin could be...

Patrick Liao

Asia Ex-Japan: MediaTek, Sea Ltd and China Banks Weigh on Performance

After 3 years of solid outperformance, active Asia Ex-Japan managers find themselves on unfamiliar ground. Following on from a challenging Q1,...

Steven Holden

Is Samsung in Trouble or Just in Another Downcycle?

Samsung will need to really show that they are not falling behind in terms of technology leadership seems to be the focal point of the remainder of...

Ken S. Kim

Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

Short notional in Korea and Taiwan has been increasing as the market has been moving lower. Shorts on China Merchant Bank have been covered in...

Brian Freitas

MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q22 Results/ 2Q22 Outlook-1Q Revenue Beat, 2Q22 Forecast Is in Line.

The 1Q22 revenue was beating the prior guidance, GM was in-line the guidance. The guidance is within our expectation in 2Q22. MediaTek believes to...

Patrick Liao

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