Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a>'s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.</li>
<li>I discussed it <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huge-hogy-medical-3593-buyback-from-the-founding-family" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.</li>
<li>The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP)'s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.
I discussed it here. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.
The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.


[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction - Totally Unsurprising

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-data-vision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8367:1" rel="noopener">Medical Data Vision (3902 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from Nippon Life at JPY1,693, a 212.4% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The substantial takeover premium reflects the outcome of an auction and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> willingness to share TOB tax benefits with minority shareholders. </li>
<li>The substantial takeover premium also ensures that this is a done deal. The tender closes on 3 February, with payment commencing from 9 February. </li>
</ul>



Medical Data Vision (3902 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Nippon Life at JPY1,693, a 212.4% premium to the last close.
The substantial takeover premium reflects the outcome of an auction and SBI Holdings (8473 JP) willingness to share TOB tax benefits with minority shareholders. 
The substantial takeover premium also ensures that this is a done deal. The tender closes on 3 February, with payment commencing from 9 February. 


Medical Data Vision (3902 JP): Nippon Life’s Tender Offer at JPY1,693 (3x Last Close)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/business/business-deals/nippon-life-seeks-to-buy-medical-data-firm-in-m-a-milestone" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reports</a> that Nippon Life Insurance will launch a tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-data-vision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8367:1" rel="noopener">Medical Data Vision (3902 JP)</a> at a valuation up to JPY60 billion.</li>
<li>If the valuation refers to market cap, the offer is JPY1,500, a 225% premium to the last close of JPY462. If it relates to EV, the offer price is JPY1,550. </li>
<li>Despite the staggering premium, it does not represent an all-time high (share price traded higher in November 2021). Nevertheless, a binding proposal would be a done deal. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Nippon Life Insurance will launch a tender offer for Medical Data Vision (3902 JP) at a valuation up to JPY60 billion.
If the valuation refers to market cap, the offer is JPY1,500, a 225% premium to the last close of JPY462. If it relates to EV, the offer price is JPY1,550. 
Despite the staggering premium, it does not represent an all-time high (share price traded higher in November 2021). Nevertheless, a binding proposal would be a done deal. 


Medical Data Vision (3902 JP): Nippon Life’s Rumoured Tender Offer at 3x the Last Close

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-data-vision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8367:1" rel="noopener">Medical Data Vision (3902 JP)</a> was IPOed in 2014. MitCorp sold. Others sold. Fujifilm and Medipal stayed in. The stock ran up. SBI bought from Fujifilm in Nov2020 at ¥2355.</li>
<li>The stock fell, SBI bought more in 2021-2022. Then it fell more in 2023 and SBI bought more, then fell more in 2024 and SBI bought more. </li>
<li>The Nikkei <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB115D70R10C25A9000000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> today that Nippon Life will announce a TOB on 15 December with a max price of ¥60bn (242% premium), which coincidentally would bring SBI close to breakeven.</li>
</ul>



Medical Data Vision (3902 JP) was IPOed in 2014. MitCorp sold. Others sold. Fujifilm and Medipal stayed in. The stock ran up. SBI bought from Fujifilm in Nov2020 at ¥2355.
The stock fell, SBI bought more in 2021-2022. Then it fell more in 2023 and SBI bought more, then fell more in 2024 and SBI bought more. 
The Nikkei reports today that Nippon Life will announce a TOB on 15 December with a max price of ¥60bn (242% premium), which coincidentally would bring SBI close to breakeven.


[Japan M&A?] Nikkei Reports Nippon Life to Buy Medical Data Vision (3902) For ~¥60bn

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Takeda has dropped AstraZeneca-partnered antibody drug candidate from its pipeline. Eisai and Merck are closing late-stage trial of Lenvima plus Keytruda in hepatocellular carcinoma on disappointing result.</li>
<li>Wuxi AppTec sharpens CRDMO business by selling its China-based clinical research subsidiaries. FDA has designated Celltrion’s Stoboclo and Osenvelt as interchangeable biosimilars to the reference products Prolia and Xgeva, respectively.</li>
<li>CSL is delaying demerger of CSL Seqirus ‘to maximise shareholder value.’ PharmaEssentia has filed for the additional indication of Besremi for Essential Thrombocythemia (ET) with the FDA.</li>
</ul>


Takeda has dropped AstraZeneca-partnered antibody drug candidate from its pipeline. Eisai and Merck are closing late-stage trial of Lenvima plus Keytruda in hepatocellular carcinoma on disappointing result.
Wuxi AppTec sharpens CRDMO business by selling its China-based clinical research subsidiaries. FDA has designated Celltrion’s Stoboclo and Osenvelt as interchangeable biosimilars to the reference products Prolia and Xgeva, respectively.
CSL is delaying demerger of CSL Seqirus ‘to maximise shareholder value.’ PharmaEssentia has filed for the additional indication of Besremi for Essential Thrombocythemia (ET) with the FDA.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (November 2) – Takeda, Eisai, Wuxi AppTec, Celltrion, CSL, PharmaEssentia

Japan

MEDIPAL HOLDINGS CORPORATION manufactures and sells medical tools and equipment, nursing equipment, and wholesales pharmaceuticals.

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Medipal Holdings (7459 JP)

[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction - Totally Unsurprising

After a BBG article on 9 Dec and a Nikkei article this weekend sending Hogy Medical limit up y/day, this AM Hogy says Carlyle has bid ¥6700/share...

Travis Lundy

Medical Data Vision (3902 JP): Nippon Life’s Tender Offer at JPY1,693 (3x Last Close)

The substantial takeover premium reflects the outcome of an auction and SBI Holdings' willingness to share TOB tax benefits with minority...

Arun George

Medical Data Vision (3902 JP): Nippon Life’s Rumoured Tender Offer at 3x the Last Close

The Nikkei reports that Nippon Life will launch a tender offer at a valuation of JPY60bn. If the valuation refers to market cap, the offer is...

Arun George

[Japan M&A?] Nikkei Reports Nippon Life to Buy Medical Data Vision (3902) For ~¥60bn

The Nikkei reports Nippon Life will launch a TOB to buy out Medical Data Vision at "up to ¥60bn", announcing it tomorrow. That is a whopping 240%...

Travis Lundy

APAC Healthcare Weekly (November 2) – Takeda, Eisai, Wuxi AppTec, Celltrion, CSL, PharmaEssentia

Takeda and Eisai witnessed clinical trials setback. Wuxi AppTec is selling China-based CRO subsidiaries. CSL is delaying demerger of CSL Seqirus....

Tina Banerjee

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