Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Born of a merger between two not-very-well-known businesses 20 years ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alfresa-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10610:1" rel="noopener">Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP)</a> is still not very well known. It is in a boring, low-margin business. </li>
<li>The highest EBIT margin in the past two decades was.... 1.8%. ROE was in the 8-10% range for 2016-2020 but has since fallen below, as PBR has fallen below 1.0x.</li>
<li>Today, we got an <em>amended</em> Mid-Term Management Plan, a new dividend policy, and buyback of 10% of shares out based on last price. It's worth looking in the details.</li>
</ul>


Born of a merger between two not-very-well-known businesses 20 years ago, Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP) is still not very well known. It is in a boring, low-margin business. 
The highest EBIT margin in the past two decades was.... 1.8%. ROE was in the 8-10% range for 2016-2020 but has since fallen below, as PBR has fallen below 1.0x.
Today, we got an amended Mid-Term Management Plan, a new dividend policy, and buyback of 10% of shares out based on last price. It's worth looking in the details.


JAPAN BUYBACKS - Alfresa (2784) Cheap Stock, Uncheapening, Goes Big

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alfresa-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10610:1" rel="noopener">Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP)</a> revised its consolidated performance forecast for FY23. Revenue, operating profit, and net profit forecast have been raised by 3%, 2%, and 21%, respectively.</li>
<li>This is attributed to greater-than-expected growth in ethical pharmaceuticals market and the company’s recovery from the bidding nomination suspension from medical institutions stemming from a violation of the Antimonopoly Act.</li>
<li>In March 2023, Alfresa received a cease and desist order and a surcharge payment order from the Japan Fair Trade Commission (FTC) in relation to violation of the Antimonopoly Act.</li>
</ul>



Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP) revised its consolidated performance forecast for FY23. Revenue, operating profit, and net profit forecast have been raised by 3%, 2%, and 21%, respectively.
This is attributed to greater-than-expected growth in ethical pharmaceuticals market and the company’s recovery from the bidding nomination suspension from medical institutions stemming from a violation of the Antimonopoly Act.
In March 2023, Alfresa received a cease and desist order and a surcharge payment order from the Japan Fair Trade Commission (FTC) in relation to violation of the Antimonopoly Act.


Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP): FY23 Result Is Expected to Exceed Previous Forecast

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alfresa-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10610:1" rel="noopener">Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP)</a> reported better-than-expected H1FY23 results, with sales growth of 3% to ¥1,332 billion, 2% ahead of guidance of ¥1,304 billion, mainly driven by pharmaceutical wholesaling business.</li>
<li>With a revenue growth of 4.3% y/y, pharmaceutical wholesaling business outpaced the broad market growth of 2.7% and improved its market share to 23.3% at the end of H1FY23.</li>
<li>The company has announced an interim dividend of ¥28 per share. Despite reporting encouraging H1FY23 performance, Alfresa has reiterated its FY23 guidance, implying accelerated growth in H2FY23.</li>
</ul>



Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP) reported better-than-expected H1FY23 results, with sales growth of 3% to ¥1,332 billion, 2% ahead of guidance of ¥1,304 billion, mainly driven by pharmaceutical wholesaling business.
With a revenue growth of 4.3% y/y, pharmaceutical wholesaling business outpaced the broad market growth of 2.7% and improved its market share to 23.3% at the end of H1FY23.
The company has announced an interim dividend of ¥28 per share. Despite reporting encouraging H1FY23 performance, Alfresa has reiterated its FY23 guidance, implying accelerated growth in H2FY23.


Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP): H1FY23 Review- Better-Than-Expected Performance; Outlook Is Positive

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuken-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14996:1" rel="noopener">Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP)</a> last Friday announced earnings which beat expectations and raised forecasts well above consensus. But Implied H2 did not change, suggesting full-year is lowballed.</li>
<li>The company announced a buyback over 5 months, but today (Tuesday) announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback for the full size (6% or so) that morning. </li>
<li>It looks like insider selling, which in addition to being accretive would be bullish on a governance basis.</li>
</ul>



Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP) last Friday announced earnings which beat expectations and raised forecasts well above consensus. But Implied H2 did not change, suggesting full-year is lowballed.
The company announced a buyback over 5 months, but today (Tuesday) announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback for the full size (6% or so) that morning. 
It looks like insider selling, which in addition to being accretive would be bullish on a governance basis.


Suzuken Buyback (9987 JP) - The Best News In Years

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Major wholesalers in food, pharmaceuticals and books continue to prosper due to their role in both serving and protecting fragmented distribution channels.</li>
<li>Profits returned last year as clients picked themselves up after Covid, but as inflation sets in, these middlemen are being squeezed by both manufacturers and retailers and profits may slump.</li>
<li>They now need to offer an ever increasing array of value-added services to continue to grow and not all have the capability. More M&amp;A may be on the cards.</li>
</ul>


Major wholesalers in food, pharmaceuticals and books continue to prosper due to their role in both serving and protecting fragmented distribution channels.
Profits returned last year as clients picked themselves up after Covid, but as inflation sets in, these middlemen are being squeezed by both manufacturers and retailers and profits may slump.
They now need to offer an ever increasing array of value-added services to continue to grow and not all have the capability. More M&amp;A may be on the cards.


Major Japan Wholesalers up 2.8% in 2021, but Problems Looming

Japan

MEDIPAL HOLDINGS CORPORATION manufactures and sells medical tools and equipment, nursing equipment, and wholesales pharmaceuticals.

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Medipal Holdings (7459 JP)

JAPAN BUYBACKS - Alfresa (2784) Cheap Stock, Uncheapening, Goes Big

Alfresa Holdings, a boring and very low margin but cash and securities-rich business has announced it will try to raise its PBR, "control" its...

Travis Lundy

Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP): FY23 Result Is Expected to Exceed Previous Forecast

Alfresa’s FY23 revenue, operating profit, and net profit are expected to beat guidance by 3%, 2%, and 21%, respectively, due to market growth and...

Tina Banerjee

Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP): H1FY23 Review- Better-Than-Expected Performance; Outlook Is Positive

Alfresa reported revenue growth of 3% in H1FY23, driven by pharmaceutical wholesaling business, which is on an accelerated growth path due to...

Tina Banerjee

Suzuken Buyback (9987 JP) - The Best News In Years

Suzuken' earnings were good. Forecasts only reflect the past. H2 implieds were unch'd. Buyback announced = ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow should finish....

Travis Lundy

Major Japan Wholesalers up 2.8% in 2021, but Problems Looming

Wholesalers in Japan had a good year last year. The biggest firms like Medipal may prosper but there are challenges for the sector which could...

Michael Causton

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