Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Kawasaki Heavy Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Expect continued buying in defense related, as well as banks and life insurance, renewable energy, rails, and medical IT plays with Shigeru Ishiba at the helm. </li>
<li>The Market will be quick to rotate out of names which spiked into Friday's close on expectation for a Sanae Takaichi win in the LDP election.  </li>
<li>Ishiba has been a vocal critic of Abenomics, and his potential policies aimed at higher taxes for investment incomes and capital gains are set to weigh on the Japanese market. </li>
</ul>


Expect continued buying in defense related, as well as banks and life insurance, renewable energy, rails, and medical IT plays with Shigeru Ishiba at the helm. 
The Market will be quick to rotate out of names which spiked into Friday's close on expectation for a Sanae Takaichi win in the LDP election.  
Ishiba has been a vocal critic of Abenomics, and his potential policies aimed at higher taxes for investment incomes and capital gains are set to weigh on the Japanese market. 


Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
  <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/medley-inc">Medley</a> is a key player in Japan's burgeoning healthcare technology sector, operating a dual-platform model that addresses both medical human resources (HR) and digital healthcare services.</li>
  <li>The company is experiencing robust top-line growth, driven by its market-leading HR platform, 'Job <a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/medley-inc">Medley</a>,' and an expanding suite of services in its Medical Platform, including telemedicine and cloud-based support systems.</li>
  <li>While revenue growth is strong, profitability has been compressed due to aggressive investments in growth, including strategic M&amp;A activity and development of the Medical Platform, which currently operates at a loss.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  
Medley is a key player in Japan's burgeoning healthcare technology sector, operating a dual-platform model that addresses both medical human resources (HR) and digital healthcare services.
  The company is experiencing robust top-line growth, driven by its market-leading HR platform, 'Job Medley,' and an expanding suite of services in its Medical Platform, including telemedicine and cloud-based support systems.
  While revenue growth is strong, profitability has been compressed due to aggressive investments in growth, including strategic M&amp;A activity and development of the Medical Platform, which currently operates at a loss.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Cummin's earnings +8.9% a good read for DC related power plays.</li>
<li>Weakness for Nintendo on an earnings miss could be a good chance to buy ahead of new Switch announcement.</li>
<li>JMDC sets a good tone for medical data related plays including M3 and Medley.</li>
</ul>


Cummin's earnings +8.9% a good read for DC related power plays.
Weakness for Nintendo on an earnings miss could be a good chance to buy ahead of new Switch announcement.
JMDC sets a good tone for medical data related plays including M3 and Medley.


Japan Morning Connection: Markets Turning Surprisingly Risk-On Despite the Election Uncertainty

<ul>
<li>Big move higher for oil set to spike the JP oil major Inpex although the refiners have large outstanding short interests and may squeeze</li>
<li>The higher oil price is negative for Japan’s utilities which have yet to restart reactors and are dependent on oil/gas imports to fuel their thermal generation</li>
<li>Details are limited on a potential Seven Bank stake sale by 7&amp;I, but there should be room for upside as shorts continue to cover</li>
</ul>


Big move higher for oil set to spike the JP oil major Inpex although the refiners have large outstanding short interests and may squeeze
The higher oil price is negative for Japan’s utilities which have yet to restart reactors and are dependent on oil/gas imports to fuel their thermal generation
Details are limited on a potential Seven Bank stake sale by 7&amp;I, but there should be room for upside as shorts continue to cover


Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<div style="text-align: center;"><strong>• NET GAIN • </strong></div><div><div class="content-caption">
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/590/original/2021-02-19_07-20-52.png?1613686864" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189590"></figure><p></p></section> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div><div>
<p><strong>NET GAIN</strong> - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of  Japanese listed companies ended the quarter 23.8%  higher than three months ago - an increase of  ¥5.2 trillion. As a result, the market's forward earnings multiple has declined to 28 times following a 10% increase in total market value (ex REITs). The increase in forecast operating income is a more modest 10.2% reflecting the degree of previously-projected COVID-related extraordinary losses.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/591/original/2021-02-19_07-29-59.png?1613687413" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189591"></figure></section><p><strong>TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS (TTM)</strong> - Trailing revenues and operating profits are still falling by 9.9% and 26.3%, respectively; however, operating income rose by 4.1% quarter-on-quarter as margins improved by 30 basis points. Despite a reasonable effort at cost-cutting, aggregate operating margins are still  228 bps below their mid-2018 peak, and it will take at least another eight quarters for that gap to be closed.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/595/original/2021-02-19_07-38-34.png?1613687927" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189595"></figure></section><p><strong>FORECASTS</strong> - The majority of companies are forecasting for the year ending next month. Despite no change in the aggregate revenue forecast, the outlook for operating income increased by ¥3.7 trillion during the quarter resulting in a 50 bps operating margin uplift. </p>
</div><section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/596/original/2021-02-19_07-40-09.png?1613688021" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189596"></figure><hr></section><p><strong>POSITIVE MOMENTUM</strong> - Both our forward-looking Results Score and Results &amp; Revision Score have returned to the positive after less than one year. Whether this merits a new thirty-year high in TOPIX is, however, a moot point. We would note that the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions for December turned down for the first time since April 2020.   </p></section><div></div><div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/597/original/2021-02-19_08-02-24.png?1613689355" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189597"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/694/original/2021-02-19_16-02-06.png?1613718138" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189694"></figure><hr></section><p><strong>SECTOR BREAKDOWN</strong> - The leading sectors in terms of one-month change in Results &amp; Revision Score are <strong>Other Commercial Products</strong>, <strong>Autos</strong>,<strong> Other Consumer Products</strong>, <strong>Metals</strong>, and <strong>Building Materials.</strong> The RRS 'losers' are <strong>Utilities</strong>, <strong>Internet Content &amp; Services</strong>, <strong>Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco,</strong><strong>Retail</strong>, and <strong>Healthcare</strong>.  </p>
</div><div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/700/original/2021-02-19_16-05-32.png?1613718344" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189700"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/701/original/2021-02-19_16-06-12.png?1613718383" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189701"></figure></section><hr>
</div><section></section><div><div>
<p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes.</p>
<hr>
<p></p>
</div></div>

• NET GAIN • 
 Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
NET GAIN - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of  Japanese listed companies ended the quarter 23.8%  higher than three months ago - an increase of  ¥5.2 trillion. As a result, the market's forward earnings multiple has declined to 28 times following a 10% increase in total market value (ex REITs). The increase in forecast operating income is a more modest 10.2% reflecting the degree of previously-projected COVID-related extraordinary losses.
TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS (TTM) - Trailing revenues and operating profits are still falling by 9.9% and 26.3%, respectively; however, operating income rose by 4.1% quarter-on-quarter as margins improved by 30 basis points. Despite a reasonable effort at cost-cutting, aggregate operating margins are still  228 bps below their mid-2018 peak, and it will take at least another eight quarters for that gap to be closed.
FORECASTS - The majority of companies are forecasting for the year ending next month. Despite no change in the aggregate revenue forecast, the outlook for operating income increased by ¥3.7 trillion during the quarter resulting in a 50 bps operating margin uplift. 
POSITIVE MOMENTUM - Both our forward-looking Results Score and Results &amp; Revision Score have returned to the positive after less than one year. Whether this merits a new thirty-year high in TOPIX is, however, a moot point. We would note that the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions for December turned down for the first time since April 2020.   
SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The leading sectors in terms of one-month change in Results &amp; Revision Score are Other Commercial Products, Autos, Other Consumer Products, Metals, and Building Materials. The RRS 'losers' are Utilities, Internet Content &amp; Services, Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco,Retail, and Healthcare.  



In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes.




🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Winter 2020 Results & Revisions Review

Japan

Medley, Inc. operates medical webs. The Company provides medical human resource recruitment, medical system management, online medical treatment, medical information updating, and other services. Medley provides its services throughout Japan.

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Medley (4480 JP)

Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

How to position in Japanese equities after the surprise win by Shigeru Ishiba over Sanae Takaichi in Friday's LDP election.

Andrew Jackson

Primer: Medley (4480 JP) - Aug 2026

Medley is a key player in Japan's burgeoning healthcare technology sector, operating a dual-platform model that addresses both medical human...

αSK Primers

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Turning Surprisingly Risk-On Despite the Election Uncertainty

Cummin's earnings a good read for DC-related power plays. Nintendo's miss may present a buying opportunity before new Switch announcement. JMDC...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

Surge in oil may squeeze refiners with short interests. Negative for Japanese utilities yet to restart reactors. Potential upside for Seven Bank as...

Andrew Jackson

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Winter 2020 Results & Revisions Review

NET GAIN - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter 23.8% higher than three months ago - an...

Campbell Gunn

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

How to position in Japanese equities after the surprise win by Shigeru Ishiba over Sanae Takaichi in Friday's LDP election.

Andrew Jackson

Primer: Medley (4480 JP) - Aug 2026

Medley is a key player in Japan's burgeoning healthcare technology sector, operating a dual-platform model that addresses both medical human...

αSK Primers

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Turning Surprisingly Risk-On Despite the Election Uncertainty

​Cummin's earnings a good read for DC-related power plays. Nintendo's miss may present a buying opportunity before new Switch announcement. JMDC...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

Surge in oil may squeeze refiners with short interests. Negative for Japanese utilities yet to restart reactors. Potential upside for Seven Bank as...

Andrew Jackson

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Winter 2020 Results & Revisions Review

NET GAIN - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter 23.8% higher than three months ago - an...

Campbell Gunn

Cummin's earnings a good read for DC-related power plays. Nintendo's miss may present a buying opportunity before new Switch announcement. JMDC...