Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Yang Ming Marine Transport / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 10 changes for the TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index in May. The Yuanta Taiwan Value High Dividend ETF (00940 TT) has an AUM of US$4.4bn.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 25.2% and there are 12 stocks with over 4 days of ADV to trade. The rebalance commenced yesterday and will end on Friday.</li>
<li>An equal weighted basket of inclusions has outperformed an equal weighted basket of deletions over the last month. That could continue near-term as the ETF continues to rebalance their portfolio.</li>
</ul>


There are 10 changes for the TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index in May. The Yuanta Taiwan Value High Dividend ETF (00940 TT) has an AUM of US$4.4bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 25.2% and there are 12 stocks with over 4 days of ADV to trade. The rebalance commenced yesterday and will end on Friday.
An equal weighted basket of inclusions has outperformed an equal weighted basket of deletions over the last month. That could continue near-term as the ETF continues to rebalance their portfolio.


TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index Rebalance: 10 Changes Implemented This Week; US$2.2bn Trade

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shin Kong Financial Holding / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The last couple of days have seen the TWD increase value against the USD extremely sharply. This has caused the Shin Kong/Taishin risk arb spread to widen. </li>
<li>There is no expectation that the merger will be delayed, but the change in USDTWD rate introduces a new dynamic into the ShinKong-as-Taishin-vs Peers trade.</li>
<li>Careful consideration of this trade going forward is worthwhile. What may have been the better trade may no longer be the better trade.</li>
</ul>


The last couple of days have seen the TWD increase value against the USD extremely sharply. This has caused the Shin Kong/Taishin risk arb spread to widen. 
There is no expectation that the merger will be delayed, but the change in USDTWD rate introduces a new dynamic into the ShinKong-as-Taishin-vs Peers trade.
Careful consideration of this trade going forward is worthwhile. What may have been the better trade may no longer be the better trade.


ShinKong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) - Time To Deal Is Shorter, But Risk To Peers Is Higher

<ul>
<li>The TFTC approved in early January, The TFTC <a href="https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202501080360.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> market power would be limited and competition unrestricted. Another <a href="https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202501070351.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNA article</a> suggested the two FHCs were completing employee placement plans.</li>
<li>Apparently, as of a month ago, only the Shin Kong <em>Bank</em> employee settlement plan had not been completed but the FSC has rules about that. Consideration likely proceeds.</li>
<li>There are specific rules about how these things are dealt with. In the meantime, the spread - still wide - is narrowing.</li>
</ul>


The TFTC approved in early January, The TFTC said market power would be limited and competition unrestricted. Another CNA article suggested the two FHCs were completing employee placement plans.
Apparently, as of a month ago, only the Shin Kong Bank employee settlement plan had not been completed but the FSC has rules about that. Consideration likely proceeds.
There are specific rules about how these things are dealt with. In the meantime, the spread - still wide - is narrowing.


Shin Kong (2888 TT) / Taishin (2887 TT) - Waiting on the FSC

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 30th which has an aggregated holding worth USD966.3bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,127mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign holding changes in Mega Financial Holding, TSMC, Ctbc Financial Holding, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 30th which has an aggregated holding worth USD966.3bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,127mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign holding changes in Mega Financial Holding, TSMC, Ctbc Financial Holding, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 30th): Mega Financial Holding, TSMC

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 23rd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Ctbc Financial Holding, Micro-Star International, United Microelectronics Corporation, Wistron, Asia Vital Components, Evergreen Marine Corp Taiwan, Mega Financial Holding.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 23rd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Ctbc Financial Holding, Micro-Star International, United Microelectronics Corporation, Wistron, Asia Vital Components, Evergreen Marine Corp Taiwan, Mega Financial Holding.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 23rd): Ctbc Financial Holding, Micro-Star International

Taiwan

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company accepts deposits, issues financial debentures, provides medium and long term loans to enterprises, as well as provides brokerage, dealer and insurance services.

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd (2886 TT)

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Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd (2886 TT)

TIP Taiwan Value High Dividend Index Rebalance: 10 Changes Implemented This Week; US$2.2bn Trade

There are 10 index changes in May. Estimated one-way turnover is 25.2% and trade is US$2.2bn. 12 stocks with over 4x ADV to trade. Multiple stocks...

Brian Freitas

ShinKong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) - Time To Deal Is Shorter, But Risk To Peers Is Higher

For months, Shin Kong and Taishin gained ground vs Peers after underperforming to a 10-year relative low. Now, USDTWD FX volatility and strength...

Travis Lundy

Shin Kong (2888 TT) / Taishin (2887 TT) - Waiting on the FSC

The FSC is considering the merger case for Shin Kong and Taishin according to local press reports. The timing of the articles suggest approval...

Travis Lundy

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 30th): Mega Financial Holding, TSMC

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Mega Financial Holding, Taiwan Semiconductor...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 23rd): Ctbc Financial Holding, Micro-Star International

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Ctbc Financial Holding, Micro-Star...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)