Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ventia-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34917:1" rel="noopener">Ventia (VNT AU)</a> completed an A$300m placement overnight with Apollo and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimic-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20030:1" rel="noopener">CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU)</a> selling around 14% of the shares outstanding at a small discount to the close.</li>
<li>The placement will significantly increase <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ventia-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34917:1" rel="noopener">Ventia (VNT AU)</a>'s float and make the stock a high probability inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>We now expect two changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in June and the impact on the stocks is over 5.5 days of ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>



Ventia (VNT AU) completed an A$300m placement overnight with Apollo and CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU) selling around 14% of the shares outstanding at a small discount to the close.
The placement will significantly increase Ventia (VNT AU)'s float and make the stock a high probability inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
We now expect two changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in June and the impact on the stocks is over 5.5 days of ADV to trade.


Ventia (VNT AU) - Placement Could Lead to ASX200 Inclusion in June

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 28th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Bhp, Pilbara Minerals, Newcrest Mining, Macquarie, Rio Tinto, Igo, Northern Star Re.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 28th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Bhp, Pilbara Minerals, Newcrest Mining, Macquarie, Rio Tinto, Igo, Northern Star Re.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 28th): BHP, Pilbara, Newcrest Mining, Macquarie, Rio Tinto, Igo

<ul>
<li>Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a>.</li>
<li>Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-stock-exchange-weighted-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26056:1" rel="noopener">TWSE INDEX</a> has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.</li>
</ul>


Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). 
Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the KOSPI2 INDEX and KOSDAQ 150 Index.
Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the TWSE INDEX has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.


Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in April following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>'s acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Then there could be another change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the regular rebalance in June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade between 4.5-18 days of ADV on the potential adds/ deletes. Short interest has started to increase on a couple of stocks.</li>
</ul>


There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in April following OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)'s acquisition by BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU).
Then there could be another change for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the regular rebalance in June.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 4.5-18 days of ADV on the potential adds/ deletes. Short interest has started to increase on a couple of stocks.


S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 3rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD41.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Woodside Energy, Medibank Private, Arafura Rare Ear, New Hope, Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Fortescue Metals.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 3rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD41.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Woodside Energy, Medibank Private, Arafura Rare Ear, New Hope, Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Fortescue Metals.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 3rd): Woodside Energy, Medibank Private, Arafura Rare Ear, New Hope

Australia

Megaport Limited operates as a software-based elastic connectivity provider. The Company develops an elastic connectivity platform that provides customers interconnectivity and flexibility between other networks and cloud providers connected to the platform. Megaport serves customers worldwide.

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Megaport Ltd (MP1 AU)

Ventia (VNT AU) - Placement Could Lead to ASX200 Inclusion in June

Apollo & CIMIC sold 14% of Ventia yesterday. That increases Ventia's float and should result in ASX200 inclusion in June. The placement was...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 28th): BHP, Pilbara, Newcrest Mining, Macquarie, Rio Tinto, Igo

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Bhp, Pilbara Minerals, Newcrest Mining, Macquarie,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Korea, Taiwan and Australia stocks over Q1 and highlights large increases/decreases in...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

There could be one change for the ASX100 & ASX200 in April and one change for the ASX200 in June. Passive trackers will trade between 4.5-18x ADV...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 3rd): Woodside Energy, Medibank Private, Arafura Rare Ear, New Hope

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Woodside Energy, Medibank Private, Arafura Rare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ventia (VNT AU) - Placement Could Lead to ASX200 Inclusion in June

Apollo & CIMIC sold 14% of Ventia yesterday. That increases Ventia's float and should result in ASX200 inclusion in June. The placement was...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 28th): BHP, Pilbara, Newcrest Mining, Macquarie, Rio Tinto, Igo

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Bhp, Pilbara Minerals, Newcrest Mining, Macquarie,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Korea, Taiwan and Australia stocks over Q1 and highlights large increases/decreases in...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

There could be one change for the ASX100 & ASX200 in April and one change for the ASX200 in June. Passive trackers will trade between 4.5-18x ADV...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 3rd): Woodside Energy, Medibank Private, Arafura Rare Ear, New Hope

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Woodside Energy, Medibank Private, Arafura Rare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June