Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China and HK stocks dominate the list of rising exposures among EM funds</li>
<li>Trip.com, CATL, and Xiaomi have reached new highs following sustained rotation, while Meituan and JD.com are rebounding after periods of consolidation</li>
<li>Aubrey and Putnam initiate stakes in Xiaomi, GIB open Trip.com exposure, and the Alger EM fund enters Meituan.</li>
</ul>


China and HK stocks dominate the list of rising exposures among EM funds
Trip.com, CATL, and Xiaomi have reached new highs following sustained rotation, while Meituan and JD.com are rebounding after periods of consolidation
Aubrey and Putnam initiate stakes in Xiaomi, GIB open Trip.com exposure, and the Alger EM fund enters Meituan.


EM Stock Rotation: China & HK Stocks Take Centre Stage

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>US recession chatter is back. During past recessions, US declined less than Asia. Within Asia, select consumer staples, telecommunication, energy outperformed. Surprisingly, so did Korea and Taiwan tech, HK industrials.</li>
<li>Asian equity drawdown was driven more by valuation derating than by earnings decline. During every US recession, all Asian currencies depreciated and FIIs sold almost all Asian markets. </li>
<li>In the event of a US recession, we think Asia would outperform US. We like attractively valued domestic-focused sectors and stocks, unless a globally linked stock is egregiously undervalued.</li>
</ul>


US recession chatter is back. During past recessions, US declined less than Asia. Within Asia, select consumer staples, telecommunication, energy outperformed. Surprisingly, so did Korea and Taiwan tech, HK industrials.
Asian equity drawdown was driven more by valuation derating than by earnings decline. During every US recession, all Asian currencies depreciated and FIIs sold almost all Asian markets. 
In the event of a US recession, we think Asia would outperform US. We like attractively valued domestic-focused sectors and stocks, unless a globally linked stock is egregiously undervalued.


Asian Equities: What if There's a US Recession?

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our take is JD.com's expansion to O2O/Food Delivery is still measured and constrained. It mainly serves the premium members;</li>
<li>Meituan, PDD' and Beike posted results broadly both in-line/slightly exceed expectations. Meituan and Beike raised AI capex while PDD and JD.com didn't mention;</li>
<li>Game received first official recognition in government's 30 stimulative measures for consumption.  Our TOP PICK is NTES.</li>
</ul>


Our take is JD.com's expansion to O2O/Food Delivery is still measured and constrained. It mainly serves the premium members;
Meituan, PDD' and Beike posted results broadly both in-line/slightly exceed expectations. Meituan and Beike raised AI capex while PDD and JD.com didn't mention;
Game received first official recognition in government's 30 stimulative measures for consumption.  Our TOP PICK is NTES.


[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 12/52]: The Tug of War Between JD and Meituan Intensifies

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>One key element was the linking of consumption to the wealth effect</li>
<li>Continuation of targeted support for certain vulnerable sections of society</li>
<li>Tactical changes as well as structural ones to support consumption longer-term</li>
</ul>


One key element was the linking of consumption to the wealth effect
Continuation of targeted support for certain vulnerable sections of society
Tactical changes as well as structural ones to support consumption longer-term


China Consumption Plan: How Special Is This “Special Plan”?

<ul>
<li>Competitors tried to leverage LLM to capture Baidu's search market share;</li>
<li>JD.com is actively seeking new, post-subsidy growth drivers, the latest being Europe while Red Notes launched US expansion. Deliveroo ceded HK market to Meituan;</li>
<li>NetEase competitor announced major layoffs. Weibo disappointed in its C4Q24 earnings. Kingsoft has a winner game in pocket.</li>
</ul>


Competitors tried to leverage LLM to capture Baidu's search market share;
JD.com is actively seeking new, post-subsidy growth drivers, the latest being Europe while Red Notes launched US expansion. Deliveroo ceded HK market to Meituan;
NetEase competitor announced major layoffs. Weibo disappointed in its C4Q24 earnings. Kingsoft has a winner game in pocket.


[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

China

Meituan is a Chinese technology company that operates a platform for local services, including on-demand food delivery, in-store services, consumer reviews, hotel and travel bookings, and instant retail. The company also offers bike sharing, e-moped sharing, and grocery delivery services. Meituan is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 2010.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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P/E	0.00
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Meituan (3690 HK)

EM Stock Rotation: China & HK Stocks Take Centre Stage

Over the past six months, China and HK stocks have dominated the list of rising exposures among active emerging market funds.

Steven Holden

Asian Equities: What if There's a US Recession?

US recession chatter is back. US declined less than Asia in past recessions. This time it could be different. Valn derating, not EPS cuts, drove...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 12/52]: The Tug of War Between JD and Meituan Intensifies

JD.com's measured expansion into O2O/Food Delivery targets premium members. Government recognition of gaming in consumption stimulus measures...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Consumption Plan: How Special Is This “Special Plan”?

One key new element is the linking consumption to the wealth effect, while continuing targeted support for vulnerable groups and structural changes

Rikki Malik

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

Competitors target Baidu's search market, JD.com seeks new growth in Europe, Weibo disappoints in earnings, Kingsoft has successful game.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EM Stock Rotation: China & HK Stocks Take Centre Stage

Over the past six months, China and HK stocks have dominated the list of rising exposures among active emerging market funds.

Steven Holden

Asian Equities: What if There's a US Recession?

​US recession chatter is back. US declined less than Asia in past recessions. This time it could be different. Valn derating, not EPS cuts, drove...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 12/52]: The Tug of War Between JD and Meituan Intensifies

​JD.com's measured expansion into O2O/Food Delivery targets premium members. Government recognition of gaming in consumption stimulus measures...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Consumption Plan: How Special Is This “Special Plan”?

One key new element is the linking consumption to the wealth effect, while continuing targeted support for vulnerable groups and structural changes

Rikki Malik

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

​Competitors target Baidu's search market, JD.com seeks new growth in Europe, Weibo disappoints in earnings, Kingsoft has successful game.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

US recession chatter is back. US declined less than Asia in past recessions. This time it could be different. Valn derating, not EPS cuts, drove...

JD.com's measured expansion into O2O/Food Delivery targets premium members. Government recognition of gaming in consumption stimulus measures...

Competitors target Baidu's search market, JD.com seeks new growth in Europe, Weibo disappoints in earnings, Kingsoft has successful game.