Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$27.2bn this week, on small two-way volumes. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> dominated as it reached dividend ex-date. Other high-div SOEs also saw buying.</li>
<li>It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, and the KPIs for SOE CEOs to raise prices and payout ratios, but it continues.</li>
<li>Valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$27.2bn this week, on small two-way volumes. China Mobile (941 HK) dominated as it reached dividend ex-date. Other high-div SOEs also saw buying.
It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, and the KPIs for SOE CEOs to raise prices and payout ratios, but it continues.
Valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 June 2024); China Mobile, Energy, Financials All Bought Bigly

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 31st.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Akeso, China Longyuan, Meituan, Baba, BOC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 31st.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Akeso, China Longyuan, Meituan, Baba, BOC.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Akeso, China Longyuan, Meituan, Baba, BOC

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Meituan reported C1Q24 revenue 6.0%/6.2% higher our estimate/consensus, and adjusted net income 19%/29% higher than our estimate/consensus. The stock fell on lower takeout order and in-store revenue guidance for C2Q24;</li>
<li>The stock has two uncertainties:(1)Strategic moves by Douyin and Eleme,(2)success of overseas expansion. There are no easy answers to these two questions but we believe the corner has been turned</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY rating and raise TP to HK$156/share to factor in the improvement in profitability.</li>
</ul>


Meituan reported C1Q24 revenue 6.0%/6.2% higher our estimate/consensus, and adjusted net income 19%/29% higher than our estimate/consensus. The stock fell on lower takeout order and in-store revenue guidance for C2Q24;
The stock has two uncertainties:(1)Strategic moves by Douyin and Eleme,(2)success of overseas expansion. There are no easy answers to these two questions but we believe the corner has been turned
We maintain the stock as BUY rating and raise TP to HK$156/share to factor in the improvement in profitability.


[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$156) TP Change]: Counting on Execution to Navigate the Uncertainties

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jun 7th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jun 7th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 7th): Tencent, Aia, Xiaomi Corporation

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Meituan reported (6 Jun) its 1Q24 results: revenue was RMB73.3bn, up 25% YoY, 4/6% higher than our estimate/Bloomberg consensus estimate.</li><li>Adjusted net profit during 1Q24 reached RMB7.5bn, better than our estimate/consensus at RMB5.5bn/5.8bn, due to both better-than-expected operating profit (OP) generated from core local commerce (CLC) business, aided by better-thanexpected order volume growth of on-demand delivery business, and narrowerthan-expected loss generated from new business, in particular the narrowerthan-expected loss generated from Meituan Select.</li><li>We are more positive on Meituan’s 2024E net profit growth prospects, given its likely better unit economics (UE) outlook for on-demand delivery business with the optimization of subsidies and increase in monetization from advertising business, as well as potentially greater loss reduction from Meituan Select. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Meituan reported (6 Jun) its 1Q24 results: revenue was RMB73.3bn, up 25% YoY, 4/6% higher than our estimate/Bloomberg consensus estimate.Adjusted net profit during 1Q24 reached RMB7.5bn, better than our estimate/consensus at RMB5.5bn/5.8bn, due to both better-than-expected operating profit (OP) generated from core local commerce (CLC) business, aided by better-thanexpected order volume growth of on-demand delivery business, and narrowerthan-expected loss generated from new business, in particular the narrowerthan-expected loss generated from Meituan Select.We are more positive on Meituan’s 2024E net profit growth prospects, given its likely better unit economics (UE) outlook for on-demand delivery business with the optimization of subsidies and increase in monetization from advertising business, as well as potentially greater loss reduction from Meituan Select. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Meituan (3690 HK) - 1Q Results Pointed to a Better Full-Year Earnings Growth Outlook

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 June 2024); China Mobile, Energy, Financials All Bought Bigly

Big net buying on HK Connect by SOUTHBOUND. This week it was China Mobile (ex-div on 6 June), energy, and financials again. MMG was sold on the...

Travis Lundy

HK Short Interest Weekly: Akeso, China Longyuan, Meituan, Baba, BOC

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 31st and highlight short interest changes in Akeso, China Longyuan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$156) TP Change]: Counting on Execution to Navigate the Uncertainties

Meituan beats revenue and net income estimates in Q1 but stock falls on lower guidance for Q2. Uncertainties remain with competition and overseas...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 7th): Tencent, Aia, Xiaomi Corporation

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Meituan (3690 HK) - 1Q Results Pointed to a Better Full-Year Earnings Growth Outlook

Meituan reported (6 Jun) its 1Q24 results: revenue was RMB73.3bn, up 25% YoY, 4/6% higher than our estimate/Bloomberg consensus estimate.

CMB International

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 June 2024); China Mobile, Energy, Financials All Bought Bigly

Big net buying on HK Connect by SOUTHBOUND. This week it was China Mobile (ex-div on 6 June), energy, and financials again. MMG was sold on the...

Travis Lundy

HK Short Interest Weekly: Akeso, China Longyuan, Meituan, Baba, BOC

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 31st and highlight short interest changes in Akeso, China Longyuan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$156) TP Change]: Counting on Execution to Navigate the Uncertainties

​Meituan beats revenue and net income estimates in Q1 but stock falls on lower guidance for Q2. Uncertainties remain with competition and overseas...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 7th): Tencent, Aia, Xiaomi Corporation

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Meituan (3690 HK) - 1Q Results Pointed to a Better Full-Year Earnings Growth Outlook

Meituan reported (6 Jun) its 1Q24 results: revenue was RMB73.3bn, up 25% YoY, 4/6% higher than our estimate/Bloomberg consensus estimate.

CMB International

Meituan beats revenue and net income estimates in Q1 but stock falls on lower guidance for Q2. Uncertainties remain with competition and overseas...