Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Meituan reported C4Q23 revenue beat our estimate/consensus by 0.7%/1.4%; operating profit beat our estimate/consensus by 37.3%/48.6%, mainly due to order volume surprise, which is unsustainable in our view.</li>
<li>However, we think Meituan’s near term pressures did not change: (1) core biz OPM drop due to rising low-price orders and subsidies; (2) resuming competition from Eleme/Douyin/PDD</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as SELL rating but raise TP by HK$13 to HK$70 to factor in the loss cutting commitment in the community group buying biz.</li>
</ul>


Meituan reported C4Q23 revenue beat our estimate/consensus by 0.7%/1.4%; operating profit beat our estimate/consensus by 37.3%/48.6%, mainly due to order volume surprise, which is unsustainable in our view.
However, we think Meituan’s near term pressures did not change: (1) core biz OPM drop due to rising low-price orders and subsidies; (2) resuming competition from Eleme/Douyin/PDD
We maintain the stock as SELL rating but raise TP by HK$13 to HK$70 to factor in the loss cutting commitment in the community group buying biz.


[Meituan (3690 HK, SELL, TP HK$70) TP Change]: Margin Reflects Persistent Competitive Pressure

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial</a> (SBBI) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO.</li>
<li>SBBI sells new-style tea drinks through its ChaPanda stores. According to F&amp;S, SBBI ranked third in China’s new-style tea shop market with a market share of 6.8% in FY23.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (SBBI) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO.
SBBI sells new-style tea drinks through its ChaPanda stores. According to F&amp;S, SBBI ranked third in China’s new-style tea shop market with a market share of 6.8% in FY23.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.


Sichuan Baicha Baidao Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Store Additions Driving Growth as SSSG Lags

<ul>
<li>ChrysCap is looking to raise around US$295m via selling a 2.8% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma</a>.</li>
<li>MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.</li>
<li>We have looked at the IPO, lock-up release and prior placement in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the current deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


ChrysCap is looking to raise around US$295m via selling a 2.8% stake in Mankind Pharma.
MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.
We have looked at the IPO, lock-up release and prior placement in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the current deal dynamics.


Mankind Pharma Placement - Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Well but Its Expensive

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Meituan reported (22 Mar) its 4Q23 results: revenue was RMB73.7bn, up 23% YoY, 1% higher than Bloomberg consensus estimate.</li><li>Adjusted net profit during 4Q23 reached RMB4.4bn, better than consensus at RMB2.9bn, due to both better-than-expected operating profit (OP) generated from core local commerce (CLC) business, and narrower-than-expected loss generated from new business.</li><li>Management highlighted that it will make strategic changes and refine business model of Meituan Select in 2024, aiming to significantly reduce the operating loss, which we believe should drive c.49% YoY non-IFRS net profit growth in 2024E. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Meituan reported (22 Mar) its 4Q23 results: revenue was RMB73.7bn, up 23% YoY, 1% higher than Bloomberg consensus estimate.Adjusted net profit during 4Q23 reached RMB4.4bn, better than consensus at RMB2.9bn, due to both better-than-expected operating profit (OP) generated from core local commerce (CLC) business, and narrower-than-expected loss generated from new business.Management highlighted that it will make strategic changes and refine business model of Meituan Select in 2024, aiming to significantly reduce the operating loss, which we believe should drive c.49% YoY non-IFRS net profit growth in 2024E. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Meituan (3690 HK) - Expect Significant Loss Reduction for New Businesses

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Meituan has released FY 2023 numbers that were excellent in our view, with significantly improved profitability and solid cash generation. The financial risk profile has strengthened further, with a large and growing net cash position coupled with robust leverage and coverage ratios. Liquidity is sound. We expect FY 2024 to be a better year for the company. We revise our Credit Bias on Meituan to “Positive” from "Stable", given the material increase in profitability and strong cash-flow generation following the pandemic. That said, we do not expect ratings upgrades in the near future.

  Meituan has released FY 2023 numbers that were excellent in our view, with significantly improved profitability and solid cash generation. The financial risk profile has strengthened further, with a large and growing net cash position coupled with robust leverage and coverage ratios. Liquidity is sound. We expect FY 2024 to be a better year for the company.   We revise our Credit Bias on Meituan to “Positive” from "Stable", given the material increase in profitability and strong cash-flow generation following the pandemic. That said, we do not expect ratings upgrades in the near future. 

Meituan - Earnings Flash - FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

[Meituan (3690 HK, SELL, TP HK$70) TP Change]: Margin Reflects Persistent Competitive Pressure

Meituan beats revenue and profit estimates, but unsustainable order volume surprise. Near-term pressures remain, stock maintained as SELL with...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Store Additions Driving Growth as SSSG Lags

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (SBBI) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. In this note, we talk about the PHIP updates.

Sumeet Singh

Mankind Pharma Placement - Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Well but Its Expensive

ChrysCap is looking to raise around US$295m via selling a 2.8% stake in Mankind Pharma. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Meituan (3690 HK) - Expect Significant Loss Reduction for New Businesses

Adjusted net profit during 4Q23 reached RMB4.4bn, better than consensus at RMB2.9bn, due to both better-than-expected operating profit (OP)...

CMB International

Meituan - Earnings Flash - FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Meituan has released FY 2023 numbers that were excellent in our view, with significantly improved profitability and solid cash generation. The...

Lucror Analytics

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Meituan (3690 HK, SELL, TP HK$70) TP Change]: Margin Reflects Persistent Competitive Pressure

​Meituan beats revenue and profit estimates, but unsustainable order volume surprise. Near-term pressures remain, stock maintained as SELL with...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Store Additions Driving Growth as SSSG Lags

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (SBBI) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. In this note, we talk about the PHIP updates.

Sumeet Singh

Mankind Pharma Placement - Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Well but Its Expensive

ChrysCap is looking to raise around US$295m via selling a 2.8% stake in Mankind Pharma. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Meituan (3690 HK) - Expect Significant Loss Reduction for New Businesses

Adjusted net profit during 4Q23 reached RMB4.4bn, better than consensus at RMB2.9bn, due to both better-than-expected operating profit (OP)...

CMB International

Meituan - Earnings Flash - FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Meituan has released FY 2023 numbers that were excellent in our view, with significantly improved profitability and solid cash generation. The...

Lucror Analytics

Meituan beats revenue and profit estimates, but unsustainable order volume surprise. Near-term pressures remain, stock maintained as SELL with...