Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 1 change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>Depending on the stocks included in the universe, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> could be deleted and that could lead to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technologie" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)</a>'s inclusion. </li>
<li>If the add and deletes are as forecast, one-way turnover will be 4.25% and will result in a round-trip trade of HK$25.3bn (US$3.22bn).</li>
</ul>


There could be 1 change for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.
Depending on the stocks included in the universe, ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) could be deleted and that could lead to Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)'s inclusion. 
If the add and deletes are as forecast, one-way turnover will be 4.25% and will result in a round-trip trade of HK$25.3bn (US$3.22bn).


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Can Leapmotor Leap into the Index?

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a> has begun to generate positive EBITDA after several challenging years post-IPO.  With a high degree of operating leverage, the company is poised to grow quickly.
</li>
<li>Didi which maintains a 70% market share in the ride-hailing industry in China is expanding into Tier 3 cities where there is a large untapped opportunity.</li>
<li>The company has indicated that it wants to list in Hong Kong in 2025 providing a catalyst for share price re-rating next year.</li>
</ul>



DiDi Global (DIDI US) has begun to generate positive EBITDA after several challenging years post-IPO.  With a high degree of operating leverage, the company is poised to grow quickly.

Didi which maintains a 70% market share in the ride-hailing industry in China is expanding into Tier 3 cities where there is a large untapped opportunity.
The company has indicated that it wants to list in Hong Kong in 2025 providing a catalyst for share price re-rating next year.


2025 High Conviction Idea - DIDI Global, Smooth Ride to Higher Profits

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.</li>
<li>Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.</li>
<li>In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.</li>
</ul>


2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.
Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.
In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.


Hong Kong 2025 Placements - Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back above US$13bn a day this past 4-day week. Net buying back below US$500mm/day.</li>
<li>Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is INFO TECH again. 8 weeks in a row negative.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back above US$13bn a day this past 4-day week. Net buying back below US$500mm/day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is INFO TECH again. 8 weeks in a row negative.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pony-ai-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44035:1" rel="noopener">Pony AI (PONY US)</a> raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Pony AI IPO Lockup - US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Can Leapmotor Leap into the Index?

Leapmotor could be added to the HSTECH in Dec, replacing ASMPT - it's a close call. Impact on the stocks is pretty big. Even with no stock changes,...

Brian Freitas

2025 High Conviction Idea - DIDI Global, Smooth Ride to Higher Profits

Didi's share price has now broken major resistance levels at $5 and $6 on surging volume. The company's profit remains on track to double in 2025....

David Mudd

Hong Kong 2025 Placements - Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

1H25 saw a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024. In this...

Sumeet Singh

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

SOUTHBOUND bought another HK$14bn+ last week in the four-day week. ENERGY was big again, as was CONSUMER DISC though some of the latter was index...

Travis Lundy

Pony AI IPO Lockup - US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales

Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

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