Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This Insight analyses <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.</li>
<li>These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. With implied volatility below its median and below realized volatility, all strategies reviewed are long volatility.</li>
<li>Almost 20% of all strategies are Calendar or Diagonal Spreads. Diagonal spreads can even earn premium in the current volatility environment. A live strategy is examined.</li>
</ul>


This Insight analyses Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) multi-leg option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. With implied volatility below its median and below realized volatility, all strategies reviewed are long volatility.
Almost 20% of all strategies are Calendar or Diagonal Spreads. Diagonal spreads can even earn premium in the current volatility environment. A live strategy is examined.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades - Strategies That Stand Out.

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US recession chatter is back. During past recessions, US declined less than Asia. Within Asia, select consumer staples, telecommunication, energy outperformed. Surprisingly, so did Korea and Taiwan tech, HK industrials.</li>
<li>Asian equity drawdown was driven more by valuation derating than by earnings decline. During every US recession, all Asian currencies depreciated and FIIs sold almost all Asian markets. </li>
<li>In the event of a US recession, we think Asia would outperform US. We like attractively valued domestic-focused sectors and stocks, unless a globally linked stock is egregiously undervalued.</li>
</ul>


US recession chatter is back. During past recessions, US declined less than Asia. Within Asia, select consumer staples, telecommunication, energy outperformed. Surprisingly, so did Korea and Taiwan tech, HK industrials.
Asian equity drawdown was driven more by valuation derating than by earnings decline. During every US recession, all Asian currencies depreciated and FIIs sold almost all Asian markets. 
In the event of a US recession, we think Asia would outperform US. We like attractively valued domestic-focused sectors and stocks, unless a globally linked stock is egregiously undervalued.


Asian Equities: What if There's a US Recession?

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our take is JD.com's expansion to O2O/Food Delivery is still measured and constrained. It mainly serves the premium members;</li>
<li>Meituan, PDD' and Beike posted results broadly both in-line/slightly exceed expectations. Meituan and Beike raised AI capex while PDD and JD.com didn't mention;</li>
<li>Game received first official recognition in government's 30 stimulative measures for consumption.  Our TOP PICK is NTES.</li>
</ul>


Our take is JD.com's expansion to O2O/Food Delivery is still measured and constrained. It mainly serves the premium members;
Meituan, PDD' and Beike posted results broadly both in-line/slightly exceed expectations. Meituan and Beike raised AI capex while PDD and JD.com didn't mention;
Game received first official recognition in government's 30 stimulative measures for consumption.  Our TOP PICK is NTES.


[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 12/52]: The Tug of War Between JD and Meituan Intensifies

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> is looking to raise around US$5.3bn via selling 3% additional shares.</li>
<li>The shares have done exceedingly well this year and are now trading at their all time highs.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) is looking to raise around US$5.3bn via selling 3% additional shares.
The shares have done exceedingly well this year and are now trading at their all time highs.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Xiaomi US$5.3bn Placement - Relatively Small, Strong Momentum but Is Expensive

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Genting Berhad, Road King, Meituan, AAC Technologies</li>
<li>In the US, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the inflation impact from tariffs could be transitory, if the duties are limited in scope and there is no retaliation from other countries.</li>
<li>He added that the Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach for now, albeit he believes rates will be lower 12-18 months from now if inflation remains contained in the long run. Separately, New York Fed President John Williams expressed support for the Fed's rate pause last week, stating that "the current modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy is entirely appropriate given the solid labour market and inflation still running somewhat above our 2% goal".</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Genting Berhad, Road King, Meituan, AAC Technologies
In the US, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the inflation impact from tariffs could be transitory, if the duties are limited in scope and there is no retaliation from other countries.
He added that the Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach for now, albeit he believes rates will be lower 12-18 months from now if inflation remains contained in the long run. Separately, New York Fed President John Williams expressed support for the Fed's rate pause last week, stating that "the current modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy is entirely appropriate given the solid labour market and inflation still running somewhat above our 2% goal".


China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades - Strategies That Stand Out.

Analysis of Alibaba's multi-leg option strategies on the HK Exchange shows traders taking calculated bets with long volatility strategies,...

Gaudenz Schneider

Asian Equities: What if There's a US Recession?

US recession chatter is back. US declined less than Asia in past recessions. This time it could be different. Valn derating, not EPS cuts, drove...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 12/52]: The Tug of War Between JD and Meituan Intensifies

JD.com's measured expansion into O2O/Food Delivery targets premium members. Government recognition of gaming in consumption stimulus measures...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Xiaomi US$5.3bn Placement - Relatively Small, Strong Momentum but Is Expensive

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) is looking to raise around US$5.3bn via selling 3% additional shares. In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sumeet Singh

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Genting Berhad, Road King, Meituan,...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades - Strategies That Stand Out.

​Analysis of Alibaba's multi-leg option strategies on the HK Exchange shows traders taking calculated bets with long volatility strategies,...

Gaudenz Schneider

Asian Equities: What if There's a US Recession?

​US recession chatter is back. US declined less than Asia in past recessions. This time it could be different. Valn derating, not EPS cuts, drove...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 12/52]: The Tug of War Between JD and Meituan Intensifies

​JD.com's measured expansion into O2O/Food Delivery targets premium members. Government recognition of gaming in consumption stimulus measures...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Xiaomi US$5.3bn Placement - Relatively Small, Strong Momentum but Is Expensive

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) is looking to raise around US$5.3bn via selling 3% additional shares. In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sumeet Singh

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Genting Berhad, Road King, Meituan,...

Lucror Analytics

Analysis of Alibaba's multi-leg option strategies on the HK Exchange shows traders taking calculated bets with long volatility strategies,...

US recession chatter is back. US declined less than Asia in past recessions. This time it could be different. Valn derating, not EPS cuts, drove...

JD.com's measured expansion into O2O/Food Delivery targets premium members. Government recognition of gaming in consumption stimulus measures...