Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This Insight analyses <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> tailor-made option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility insights are provided.</li>
<li>The vast majority of traders opt for bearish strategies, but there are examples of contrarian trades.</li>
<li>Although one-month implied volatility is historically low in its 7th percentile, it is above realized volatility. With an implied just below 40%, option premiums are significant in absolute terms.</li>
</ul>


This Insight analyses Meituan (3690 HK) tailor-made option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility insights are provided.
The vast majority of traders opt for bearish strategies, but there are examples of contrarian trades.
Although one-month implied volatility is historically low in its 7th percentile, it is above realized volatility. With an implied just below 40%, option premiums are significant in absolute terms.


EQD | Meituan (3690 HK) In the Bear's Grip - Popular Option Strategies and Top Trades

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>O2O has made a huge impact on China's e-commerce scene in 2024. The Coupang-invented model suits mega cities with dense population and order volumes;</li>
<li>Online drug O2O, in particular, has gained momentum because drugs, prescription and non-prescription have robust storage and distribution needs on the ground for O2O use;</li>
<li>Meituan's drug sales has grown its overall market share from 3.6% in 2022 to 7.1% in 2024. We project it to grow to 12.3% by 2030. </li>
</ul>


O2O has made a huge impact on China's e-commerce scene in 2024. The Coupang-invented model suits mega cities with dense population and order volumes;
Online drug O2O, in particular, has gained momentum because drugs, prescription and non-prescription have robust storage and distribution needs on the ground for O2O use;
Meituan's drug sales has grown its overall market share from 3.6% in 2022 to 7.1% in 2024. We project it to grow to 12.3% by 2030. 


Meituan (3690 HK): Online Drug Sales Is the First Sweet Spot of O2O Vs. E-Commerce

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 1 change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>Depending on the stocks included in the universe, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> could be deleted and that could lead to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technologie" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)</a>'s inclusion. </li>
<li>If the add and deletes are as forecast, one-way turnover will be 4.25% and will result in a round-trip trade of HK$25.3bn (US$3.22bn).</li>
</ul>


There could be 1 change for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.
Depending on the stocks included in the universe, ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) could be deleted and that could lead to Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)'s inclusion. 
If the add and deletes are as forecast, one-way turnover will be 4.25% and will result in a round-trip trade of HK$25.3bn (US$3.22bn).


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Can Leapmotor Leap into the Index?

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a> has begun to generate positive EBITDA after several challenging years post-IPO.  With a high degree of operating leverage, the company is poised to grow quickly.
</li>
<li>Didi which maintains a 70% market share in the ride-hailing industry in China is expanding into Tier 3 cities where there is a large untapped opportunity.</li>
<li>The company has indicated that it wants to list in Hong Kong in 2025 providing a catalyst for share price re-rating next year.</li>
</ul>



DiDi Global (DIDI US) has begun to generate positive EBITDA after several challenging years post-IPO.  With a high degree of operating leverage, the company is poised to grow quickly.

Didi which maintains a 70% market share in the ride-hailing industry in China is expanding into Tier 3 cities where there is a large untapped opportunity.
The company has indicated that it wants to list in Hong Kong in 2025 providing a catalyst for share price re-rating next year.


2025 High Conviction Idea - DIDI Global, Smooth Ride to Higher Profits

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.</li>
<li>Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.</li>
<li>In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.</li>
</ul>


2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.
Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.
In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.


Hong Kong 2025 Placements - Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

EQD | Meituan (3690 HK) In the Bear's Grip - Popular Option Strategies and Top Trades

Analysis of Meituan's option strategies on HK Exchange shows majority bearish, some contrarian trades. Despite historically low implied...

Gaudenz Schneider

Meituan (3690 HK): Online Drug Sales Is the First Sweet Spot of O2O Vs. E-Commerce

O2O revolutionizes China's e-commerce, especially in online drug sales with Meituan leading the way to significant market share growth. The share...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Can Leapmotor Leap into the Index?

Leapmotor could be added to the HSTECH in Dec, replacing ASMPT - it's a close call. Impact on the stocks is pretty big. Even with no stock changes,...

Brian Freitas

2025 High Conviction Idea - DIDI Global, Smooth Ride to Higher Profits

Didi's share price has now broken major resistance levels at $5 and $6 on surging volume. The company's profit remains on track to double in 2025....

David Mudd

Hong Kong 2025 Placements - Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

1H25 saw a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | Meituan (3690 HK) In the Bear's Grip - Popular Option Strategies and Top Trades

​Analysis of Meituan's option strategies on HK Exchange shows majority bearish, some contrarian trades. Despite historically low implied...

Gaudenz Schneider

Meituan (3690 HK): Online Drug Sales Is the First Sweet Spot of O2O Vs. E-Commerce

​O2O revolutionizes China's e-commerce, especially in online drug sales with Meituan leading the way to significant market share growth. The share...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Can Leapmotor Leap into the Index?

Leapmotor could be added to the HSTECH in Dec, replacing ASMPT - it's a close call. Impact on the stocks is pretty big. Even with no stock changes,...

Brian Freitas

2025 High Conviction Idea - DIDI Global, Smooth Ride to Higher Profits

Didi's share price has now broken major resistance levels at $5 and $6 on surging volume. The company's profit remains on track to double in 2025....

David Mudd

Hong Kong 2025 Placements - Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

1H25 saw a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Analysis of Meituan's option strategies on HK Exchange shows majority bearish, some contrarian trades. Despite historically low implied...

O2O revolutionizes China's e-commerce, especially in online drug sales with Meituan leading the way to significant market share growth. The share...