Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows the last several weeks clearly indicated a momentum move. The top net sells were all down. The top buys were all up. This week saw reversion.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND saw net buys of HK$3.5bn this week, breaking a nascent sell streak. Meituan dip-buying Wednesday to Friday was worth the entire net buy.</li>
<li>High-Div SOEs remain mixed. CNOOC (883) saw decent net buying, and China Mobile saw decent net selling. Again.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND flows the last several weeks clearly indicated a momentum move. The top net sells were all down. The top buys were all up. This week saw reversion.
SOUTHBOUND saw net buys of HK$3.5bn this week, breaking a nascent sell streak. Meituan dip-buying Wednesday to Friday was worth the entire net buy.
High-Div SOEs remain mixed. CNOOC (883) saw decent net buying, and China Mobile saw decent net selling. Again.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Dec 23); Meituan Dip-Buyings Leads Inflows; CNOOC Vs 941 on SOEs

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Meituan reported C3Q23 top line (1.0%)/0.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP net income (9.7%)/8.3% vs our estimate/consensus. Subsidies and investment in in-store business is the main reason for bottom-line miss.</li>
<li>Meituan in-store GTV increased 90% YoY in 3Q23, effectively counteracted Douyin’s attack and maintained size ratio at 3:1 vs. Douyin in-store, which scarified profit.</li>
<li>Meituan OPM lowered 2.5ppt QoQ to 4.4% in 3Q23, and we expect it decline to 2.4% in 4Q23.</li>
</ul>


Meituan reported C3Q23 top line (1.0%)/0.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP net income (9.7%)/8.3% vs our estimate/consensus. Subsidies and investment in in-store business is the main reason for bottom-line miss.
Meituan in-store GTV increased 90% YoY in 3Q23, effectively counteracted Douyin’s attack and maintained size ratio at 3:1 vs. Douyin in-store, which scarified profit.
Meituan OPM lowered 2.5ppt QoQ to 4.4% in 3Q23, and we expect it decline to 2.4% in 4Q23.


[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$118) TP Change]: Deeply Cultivate Domestic While Wait for Overseas

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>The stock has been declining for about three years and plummeted after the 3Q23 results.</li>
<li>However, we believe MT and its corporate clients have been recovering and MT’s profits will rise by 129% in 2024.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 132% and a price target of HK$209 for 2024. Buy.</li>
</ul>


The stock has been declining for about three years and plummeted after the 3Q23 results.
However, we believe MT and its corporate clients have been recovering and MT’s profits will rise by 129% in 2024.
We set an upside of 132% and a price target of HK$209 for 2024. Buy.


2024 High Conviction: Meituan / MT (3690 HK) - Big Opportunity Emerging After Plunge

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Meituan reported (28 Nov) its 3Q23 results: revenue was RMB76.5bn, up 22% YoY, 1% higher than both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimate.</li><li>Adjusted net profit during 3Q23 reached RMB5.7bn, better than our forecast/consensus by 3/8%, due to better-than-expected operating profit (OP) generated from core local commerce (CLC) business, and slightly narrower than expected loss generated from new business.</li><li>Meituan is adopting proactive strategies to stimulate food delivery business growth, and to stay vigilant in the long-lasting competition with Douyin. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Meituan reported (28 Nov) its 3Q23 results: revenue was RMB76.5bn, up 22% YoY, 1% higher than both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimate.Adjusted net profit during 3Q23 reached RMB5.7bn, better than our forecast/consensus by 3/8%, due to better-than-expected operating profit (OP) generated from core local commerce (CLC) business, and slightly narrower than expected loss generated from new business.Meituan is adopting proactive strategies to stimulate food delivery business growth, and to stay vigilant in the long-lasting competition with Douyin. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> 's 3Q2023 revenues beat estimates while OP for the quarter was well below consensus estimates.</li>
<li>There were clear signs of slowdown in earnings growth due to macroeconomic challenges and weaker demand. 4Q earnings are expected to decline further.</li>
<li>Meituan’s share price went down by about 11% following its earnings announcement as slowdown in core local commerce and weakening earnings have concerned investors.</li>
</ul>



Meituan (3690 HK) 's 3Q2023 revenues beat estimates while OP for the quarter was well below consensus estimates.
There were clear signs of slowdown in earnings growth due to macroeconomic challenges and weaker demand. 4Q earnings are expected to decline further.
Meituan’s share price went down by about 11% following its earnings announcement as slowdown in core local commerce and weakening earnings have concerned investors.


China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Meituan (3690 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Dec 23); Meituan Dip-Buyings Leads Inflows; CNOOC Vs 941 on SOEs

Quiddity's SOUTHBOUND Connect Monitor: Large net buys on Meituan after the dip make up all of the last week's net buys. Other names see smaller...

Travis Lundy

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$118) TP Change]: Deeply Cultivate Domestic While Wait for Overseas

Meituan's Q3 results show lower than expected top line and net income due to subsidies and investment in in-store business. Despite increased...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2024 High Conviction: Meituan / MT (3690 HK) - Big Opportunity Emerging After Plunge

The stock has been declining for three years and plummeted after the 3Q23 results. However, we believe MT and its corporate clients have been...

Ming Lu

Meituan (3690 HK) – 29 Nov 2023

Meituan reported (28 Nov) its 3Q23 results: revenue was RMB76.5bn, up 22% YoY, 1% higher than both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimate.

CMB International

Meituan: Earnings to Weaken Further

As we expected, there were clear signs of a slowdown in Meituan's earnings due to macroeconomic challenges, weaker demand and intensifying...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Dec 23); Meituan Dip-Buyings Leads Inflows; CNOOC Vs 941 on SOEs

Quiddity's SOUTHBOUND Connect Monitor: Large net buys on Meituan after the dip make up all of the last week's net buys. Other names see smaller...

Travis Lundy

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$118) TP Change]: Deeply Cultivate Domestic While Wait for Overseas

​Meituan's Q3 results show lower than expected top line and net income due to subsidies and investment in in-store business. Despite increased...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2024 High Conviction: Meituan / MT (3690 HK) - Big Opportunity Emerging After Plunge

The stock has been declining for three years and plummeted after the 3Q23 results. However, we believe MT and its corporate clients have been...

Ming Lu

Meituan (3690 HK) – 29 Nov 2023

Meituan reported (28 Nov) its 3Q23 results: revenue was RMB76.5bn, up 22% YoY, 1% higher than both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimate.

CMB International

Meituan: Earnings to Weaken Further

As we expected, there were clear signs of a slowdown in Meituan's earnings due to macroeconomic challenges, weaker demand and intensifying...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Meituan's Q3 results show lower than expected top line and net income due to subsidies and investment in in-store business. Despite increased...