Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We upgrade Meituan because we believe its success in Hong Kong might be replicable on a global scale. </li>
<li>The upcoming autonomous driving (ADS) revolution has deep and fundamental implications in permanently cutting Meituan’s logistic cost;</li>
<li>We upgrade the stock from SELL to BUY and raise TP to HK$150/share</li>
</ul>


We upgrade Meituan because we believe its success in Hong Kong might be replicable on a global scale. 
The upcoming autonomous driving (ADS) revolution has deep and fundamental implications in permanently cutting Meituan’s logistic cost;
We upgrade the stock from SELL to BUY and raise TP to HK$150/share


[Meituan (3690 HK,BUY,TP HK$150) Rating Change]: A Turning Point Might Have Arrived on Two Catalysts

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>Meituan has navigated through its most challenging period since IPO as competition moderates and reorg comes close to completion. </li>
<li>1Q results should kick off an upward earnings cycle through to the end of 2024 when the company’s efforts to revamp loss-making new initiative businesses gather pace. </li>
<li>That said, lack of clear topline driver remains the key reason for our cautious view about the sustainability of re-rating. Maintain neutral.</li>
</ul>


Meituan has navigated through its most challenging period since IPO as competition moderates and reorg comes close to completion. 
1Q results should kick off an upward earnings cycle through to the end of 2024 when the company’s efforts to revamp loss-making new initiative businesses gather pace. 
That said, lack of clear topline driver remains the key reason for our cautious view about the sustainability of re-rating. Maintain neutral.


Meituan (3690 HK): Lack of Clear Topline Driver Remains a Concern

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Total revenue grew by 22.6% YoY in 4Q23, three percentage points higher than we expected.</li>
<li>MT’s operating profit broke even for the fiscal year 2023.</li>
<li>We conclude an upside of 113% and a price target of HK$188. Buy.</li>
</ul>


Total revenue grew by 22.6% YoY in 4Q23, three percentage points higher than we expected.
MT’s operating profit broke even for the fiscal year 2023.
We conclude an upside of 113% and a price target of HK$188. Buy.


MT / Meituan (3690 HK): 2023 - Broke Even for First Year

<ul>
<li>In 4Q23, we believe total revenue will grow by 20% YoY and MT will have the fourth profitable quarter.</li>
<li>We believe Douyin will not threaten MT in the long run according to other competitors’ failure.</li>
<li>We believe EPS will reach RMB0.35 in 4Q23 and RMB2.23 in 2023.</li>
</ul>


In 4Q23, we believe total revenue will grow by 20% YoY and MT will have the fourth profitable quarter.
We believe Douyin will not threaten MT in the long run according to other competitors’ failure.
We believe EPS will reach RMB0.35 in 4Q23 and RMB2.23 in 2023.


MT/ Meituan (3690 HK) Earnings Preview: Fourth Positive EPS, 99% Upside

<ul>
<li>Meituan reported C4Q23 revenue beat our estimate/consensus by 0.7%/1.4%; operating profit beat our estimate/consensus by 37.3%/48.6%, mainly due to order volume surprise, which is unsustainable in our view.</li>
<li>However, we think Meituan’s near term pressures did not change: (1) core biz OPM drop due to rising low-price orders and subsidies; (2) resuming competition from Eleme/Douyin/PDD</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as SELL rating but raise TP by HK$13 to HK$70 to factor in the loss cutting commitment in the community group buying biz.</li>
</ul>


Meituan reported C4Q23 revenue beat our estimate/consensus by 0.7%/1.4%; operating profit beat our estimate/consensus by 37.3%/48.6%, mainly due to order volume surprise, which is unsustainable in our view.
However, we think Meituan’s near term pressures did not change: (1) core biz OPM drop due to rising low-price orders and subsidies; (2) resuming competition from Eleme/Douyin/PDD
We maintain the stock as SELL rating but raise TP by HK$13 to HK$70 to factor in the loss cutting commitment in the community group buying biz.


[Meituan (3690 HK, SELL, TP HK$70) TP Change]: Margin Reflects Persistent Competitive Pressure

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

[Meituan (3690 HK,BUY,TP HK$150) Rating Change]: A Turning Point Might Have Arrived on Two Catalysts

We upgrade Meituan because we believe its success in Hong Kong might be replicable on a global scale. Evidence has also emerged that domestic...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Meituan (3690 HK): Lack of Clear Topline Driver Remains a Concern

While we expect 1Q24 to kick off an upward earnings cycle for Meituan, lack of clear topline driver remains a concern given its valuation premium...

Eric Chen

MT / Meituan (3690 HK): 2023 - Broke Even for First Year

In 4Q23, the revenue growth rate was three percentage points higher than we expected. MT’s operating profit broke even for the first year. We...

Ming Lu

MT/ Meituan (3690 HK) Earnings Preview: Fourth Positive EPS, 99% Upside

In 4Q23, we believe total revenue will grow by 20% YoY and MT will book the fourth profitable quarter. We believe Douyin will not threat MT in the...

Ming Lu

[Meituan (3690 HK, SELL, TP HK$70) TP Change]: Margin Reflects Persistent Competitive Pressure

Meituan beats revenue and profit estimates, but unsustainable order volume surprise. Near-term pressures remain, stock maintained as SELL with...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Meituan (3690 HK,BUY,TP HK$150) Rating Change]: A Turning Point Might Have Arrived on Two Catalysts

We upgrade Meituan because we believe its success in Hong Kong might be replicable on a global scale. Evidence has also emerged that domestic...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Meituan (3690 HK): Lack of Clear Topline Driver Remains a Concern

​While we expect 1Q24 to kick off an upward earnings cycle for Meituan, lack of clear topline driver remains a concern given its valuation premium...

Eric Chen

MT / Meituan (3690 HK): 2023 - Broke Even for First Year

In 4Q23, the revenue growth rate was three percentage points higher than we expected. MT’s operating profit broke even for the first year. We...

Ming Lu

MT/ Meituan (3690 HK) Earnings Preview: Fourth Positive EPS, 99% Upside

In 4Q23, we believe total revenue will grow by 20% YoY and MT will book the fourth profitable quarter. We believe Douyin will not threat MT in the...

Ming Lu

[Meituan (3690 HK, SELL, TP HK$70) TP Change]: Margin Reflects Persistent Competitive Pressure

​Meituan beats revenue and profit estimates, but unsustainable order volume surprise. Near-term pressures remain, stock maintained as SELL with...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

While we expect 1Q24 to kick off an upward earnings cycle for Meituan, lack of clear topline driver remains a concern given its valuation premium...

Meituan beats revenue and profit estimates, but unsustainable order volume surprise. Near-term pressures remain, stock maintained as SELL with...