European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Dowlais shareholders receive £0.43 cash plus 0.0881 AAM shares, valuing the stock near 82p. Current price 79.75p leaves a 2.9% spread, annualising to ~11–13% returns.</li>
<li>Both shareholder votes passed and AAM secured $3bn funding, reducing execution risk. Regulatory approvals across the US, EU, China, Brazil, and Mexico remain the final gating conditions to completion.</li>
<li>Downside if deal fails: shares could re-rate to pre-announcement 68–75p, ~5–15% downside. Market sees limited overlap, so main risk is delayed approvals pushing closing into early 2026.</li>
</ul>


Dowlais shareholders receive £0.43 cash plus 0.0881 AAM shares, valuing the stock near 82p. Current price 79.75p leaves a 2.9% spread, annualising to ~11–13% returns.
Both shareholder votes passed and AAM secured $3bn funding, reducing execution risk. Regulatory approvals across the US, EU, China, Brazil, and Mexico remain the final gating conditions to completion.
Downside if deal fails: shares could re-rate to pre-announcement 68–75p, ~5–15% downside. Market sees limited overlap, so main risk is delayed approvals pushing closing into early 2026.


AAM-Dowlais: Short-Dated Arb with Double-Digit Annualised Return

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Based on latest prices, there could be one change for F100 and four changes in F250 between now and the June 2023 Rebalance including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/al-noor-hospitals-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21813:1" rel="noopener">Mediclinic International (MDC LN)</a>'s intra-review change. </li>
<li>Many of the high-ranked F250 potential additions could have very high impact according to our estimates.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.
Based on latest prices, there could be one change for F100 and four changes in F250 between now and the June 2023 Rebalance including Mediclinic International (MDC LN)'s intra-review change. 
Many of the high-ranked F250 potential additions could have very high impact according to our estimates.


Quiddity Leaderboard for UK F100/​​250 June 23: 20+ Days to Buy for Top-Ranked F250 Potential ADDs

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns for major indexes around the globe. The path of least resistance remains higher and we continue to believe a melt-up is likely in the weeks/months ahead. The global <strong>Technology, Discretionary, </strong>and <strong>Manufacturing </strong>Sectors remain leadership -- add exposure/remain overweight. The <strong>Financial</strong> Sector has been playing catch-up and continues to show signs of price and RS bottoms as expectations rise for a global recovery -- add exposure.</p>

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns for major indexes around the globe. The path of least resistance remains higher and we continue to believe a melt-up is likely in the weeks/months ahead. The global Technology, Discretionary, and Manufacturing Sectors remain leadership -- add exposure/remain overweight. The Financial Sector has been playing catch-up and continues to show signs of price and RS bottoms as expectations rise for a global recovery -- add exposure.

Global Equity Strategy: Santa Claus Rally Underway

Equity analyst UK & Europe, UK Long Short

Peter Toeman

Equity analyst UK & Europe

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The UK stockmarket has enjoyed a buoyant first quarter keeping track with other developed markets. This might appear somewhat surprising given political turmoil and the existential risk posed by Brexit but it seems that investors always anticipated that Parliament would veto the most damaging "No-deal" option. In this regard investors have been more far-sighted than right-wing Conservative politicians.</p><p>So where to now for FTSE100 ? The index is back to the level of early 18Q4 which seems appropriate given the anticipated economic downturn recession failed to materialise. The old adage "Sell in May and go away" comes to mind. As strategy this has worked quite well. Over the 25 years the market has been lower at the at the end of the second quarter than at the beginning 42%  of the time, producing an average return of minus 0.4%.</p><p>In terms of individual companies, Tesco (which we had in the long portfolio) is amongst the top ten performers year-to-date, and Centrica (in the short portfolio) is the second worst.</p>

The UK stockmarket has enjoyed a buoyant first quarter keeping track with other developed markets. This might appear somewhat surprising given political turmoil and the existential risk posed by Brexit but it seems that investors always anticipated that Parliament would veto the most damaging "No-deal" option. In this regard investors have been more far-sighted than right-wing Conservative politicians.So where to now for FTSE100 ? The index is back to the level of early 18Q4 which seems appropriate given the anticipated economic downturn recession failed to materialise. The old adage "Sell in May and go away" comes to mind. As strategy this has worked quite well. Over the 25 years the market has been lower at the at the end of the second quarter than at the beginning 42%  of the time, producing an average return of minus 0.4%.In terms of individual companies, Tesco (which we had in the long portfolio) is amongst the top ten performers year-to-date, and Centrica (in the short portfolio) is the second worst.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket.  A tough market background and Brexit concerns have reduced in-flows into Wealth and Investment Management companies. This growth hiatus could last for some time.  </strong></p>
<h2><strong>Hargreaves Lansdown: What does it do ?</strong></h2>
<p>Hargreaves Lansdown is a wealth manager and private client stockbroker with a market value of  GBP8bn. It provides the UK's largest direct to investor platform administering £86bn of investments for more than 1.1m active clients</p>
<h2><strong>Why is it in the Short portfolio ?</strong></h2>
<p>Interim figures for the 6 months to December 2018, (published 29th Jan)  mark a deterioration in operating performance brought about by adverse market conditions. Assets under administration declined and net new business was 25% down on the prior year. Earnings per share increased 4%. The share price declined 6% on the day of the results but has subsequently been stable leaving the group on a forward multiple of over 30x. Unless the retail investment market recovers quickly this premium rating may prove vulnerable. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/444/original/port%202.PNG?1551297124" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80444"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">S&amp;P Capital IQ</div>

The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket.  A tough market background and Brexit concerns have reduced in-flows into Wealth and Investment Management companies. This growth hiatus could last for some time.  
Hargreaves Lansdown: What does it do ?
Hargreaves Lansdown is a wealth manager and private client stockbroker with a market value of  GBP8bn. It provides the UK's largest direct to investor platform administering £86bn of investments for more than 1.1m active clients
Why is it in the Short portfolio ?
Interim figures for the 6 months to December 2018, (published 29th Jan)  mark a deterioration in operating performance brought about by adverse market conditions. Assets under administration declined and net new business was 25% down on the prior year. Earnings per share increased 4%. The share price declined 6% on the day of the results but has subsequently been stable leaving the group on a forward multiple of over 30x. Unless the retail investment market recovers quickly this premium rating may prove vulnerable. 

S&amp;P Capital IQ

Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/:LN) No Flow, No Go

United Kingdom

Melrose Industries PLC operates as a global aerospace business. The Company acquires and holds securities of under performing businesses primarily in the manufacturing sector.

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Melrose Industries (MRO LN)

AAM-Dowlais: Short-Dated Arb with Double-Digit Annualised Return

AAM/Dowlais offers ~3% spread, annualising to low-teens return, with funding and votes secured. Only regulatory timing risk remains, creating an...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard for UK F100/250 June 23: 20+ Days to Buy for Top-Ranked F250 Potential ADDs

On average, there could be around 20 days of volume to buy for the top four F250 potential ADDs according to our estimates and I see a decent...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Global Equity Strategy: Santa Claus Rally Underway

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns across indexes, and we continue to...

Vermilion Research

FTSE 100 Long/Short: No 2 No Deal

The UK stockmarket has enjoyed a buoyant first quarter keeping track with other developed markets. This might appear somewhat surprising given...

Boost Research

Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/:LN) No Flow, No Go

The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket. A tough market...

Boost Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

AAM-Dowlais: Short-Dated Arb with Double-Digit Annualised Return

AAM/Dowlais offers ~3% spread, annualising to low-teens return, with funding and votes secured. Only regulatory timing risk remains, creating an...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard for UK F100/​​250 June 23: 20+ Days to Buy for Top-Ranked F250 Potential ADDs

On average, there could be around 20 days of volume to buy for the top four F250 potential ADDs according to our estimates and I see a decent...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Global Equity Strategy: Santa Claus Rally Underway

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns across indexes, and we continue to...

Vermilion Research

FTSE 100 Long/Short: No 2 No Deal

The UK stockmarket has enjoyed a buoyant first quarter keeping track with other developed markets. This might appear somewhat surprising given...

Boost Research

Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/:LN) No Flow, No Go

The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket. A tough market...

Boost Research

Quiddity Leaderboard for UK F100/250 June 23: 20+ Days to Buy for Top-Ranked F250 Potential ADDs