Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> looked like a classic deletion, not addition.</li>
<li>93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.</li>
<li>It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.</li>
</ul>


Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. Shift Inc (3697 JP) looked like a classic deletion, not addition.
93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.


[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

<ul>
<li>Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-nikkei-225-sep25-review-shift-3697-in-citizen-watch-7762-out-kokusai-misses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200727" rel="noopener">[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses</a>. </li>
<li>That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. </li>
<li>It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!</li>
</ul>


Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses. 
That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. 
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

<ul>
<li>Today, in the latest announcement in 17 years, the Nikkei Index Committee announced there would be only one change to the Nikkei 225 at the 30 Sep close. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> is IN. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citizen-watch-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8571:1" rel="noopener">Citizen Watch (7762 JP)</a> is OUT. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> is uplifted. Sony Financial Spin is out 29 Sep. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>? MIA. </li>
<li>In dollar terms it is smallish. In ADV terms there are some big changes. And this puts Kokusai Electric back possibly years. </li>
</ul>


Today, in the latest announcement in 17 years, the Nikkei Index Committee announced there would be only one change to the Nikkei 225 at the 30 Sep close. 

Shift Inc (3697 JP) is IN. Citizen Watch (7762 JP) is OUT. BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) is uplifted. Sony Financial Spin is out 29 Sep. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)? MIA. 
In dollar terms it is smallish. In ADV terms there are some big changes. And this puts Kokusai Electric back possibly years. 


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 8th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD15,664m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Furukawa Electric, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, SoftBank, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Nintendo, IHI, Chugai Pharmaceutical, Toyota Motor, Furukawa Electric, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 8th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD15,664m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Furukawa Electric, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, SoftBank, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Nintendo, IHI, Chugai Pharmaceutical, Toyota Motor, Furukawa Electric, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 8th): Furukawa Electric, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, SoftBank

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6597:1" rel="noopener">Melco Holdings (6676 JP)</a> chairman Hiroyuki MAKI bought up a 14% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> in just under two weeks. It was done quite transparently. He announced daily.</li>
<li>He wants to get to 30% in a Tender Offer. The method, approach, lack of transparency, and similarity to previous situations where he invested has the company wary. </li>
<li>This looks like a Poison Pill case in the offing. It WAS a cheap stock. It is not expensive now. But it is not clear what the endgame is here.</li>
</ul>



Melco Holdings (6676 JP) chairman Hiroyuki MAKI bought up a 14% stake in BASE Inc (4477 JP) in just under two weeks. It was done quite transparently. He announced daily.
He wants to get to 30% in a Tender Offer. The method, approach, lack of transparency, and similarity to previous situations where he invested has the company wary. 
This looks like a Poison Pill case in the offing. It WAS a cheap stock. It is not expensive now. But it is not clear what the endgame is here.


Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) - Interesting Situation

Japan

Mercari, Inc. operates as an electronic commercial company. The Company offers electronic commercial software, operation management, marketing planning, and other marketplace services. Mercari serves customers worldwide.

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Mercari (4385 JP)

[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

The Sep 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal was not a "right-way" event for the ADD (Shift (3697)). The March 2026 rebal looks also to be a 1 IN 1 OUT affair,...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

The Sep25 Nikkei 225 Periodic Review is announced. That means the Mar26 review can be predicted with a fair bit of accuracy. I see one ADD one...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses

The Nikkei Index Committee chose to just change one name. Again disappointing. Kokusai misses out as Shift is added, Citizen Watch removed. ADV...

Travis Lundy

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 8th): Furukawa Electric, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, SoftBank

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Furukawa Electric (5801 JP), Disco (6146 JP), Mitsubishi Heavy...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) - Interesting Situation

Maki-san launched his tender at ¥400 on 7 May, 7 weeks after I wrote this as a sell at ¥496. The shares were higher. They came down. The company...

Travis Lundy

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