Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
I’m fascinated by the market for second-hand goods.
</li>
<li>
eBay has existed for many decades, but it was only with the smartphone that the market took off.
</li>
<li>
With a smartphone, you could snap a photo of your item and post it online within minutes. 
</li>
</ul>



I’m fascinated by the market for second-hand goods.


eBay has existed for many decades, but it was only with the smartphone that the market took off.


With a smartphone, you could snap a photo of your item and post it online within minutes. 



Mercari (4385 JP): Japan’s Leading C2C Trading App at 14x P/E with Margin Uplift Potential

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>
Record Margins: Q2 OP surged 82% YoY to ¥7.1b, with Japan profitability up and losses narrowing in Fintech and the US.</li>
<li>
US Breakeven Play: Aggressive cost-cutting led to 12ppt margin improvement; if growth stalls, a sale or exit could boost margins by 200bps.</li>
<li>
Fintech Upside: Losses peaked last year, with 16ppt OPM improvement; breaking even could add 400bps to group margins.</li>
</ul>



Record Margins: Q2 OP surged 82% YoY to ¥7.1b, with Japan profitability up and losses narrowing in Fintech and the US.

US Breakeven Play: Aggressive cost-cutting led to 12ppt margin improvement; if growth stalls, a sale or exit could boost margins by 200bps.

Fintech Upside: Losses peaked last year, with 16ppt OPM improvement; breaking even could add 400bps to group margins.


Mercari (4385) | Profitability on the Rise with More Levers to Pull

<ul>
<li>Q4 results were a mixed bag with GMV growth slowing to just 6%. However, costs came in better than expected, boosting margins</li>
<li>Management surprise the market with bullish FY6/25 guidance. Expects GMV growth to accelerate to +10% and sees OP at a healthy 22-25 billion yen</li>
<li>Activist investor Oasis has taken a stake in the company. There is an obvious restructuring angle in addition to significant upside from fintech expansion </li>
</ul>


Q4 results were a mixed bag with GMV growth slowing to just 6%. However, costs came in better than expected, boosting margins
Management surprise the market with bullish FY6/25 guidance. Expects GMV growth to accelerate to +10% and sees OP at a healthy 22-25 billion yen
Activist investor Oasis has taken a stake in the company. There is an obvious restructuring angle in addition to significant upside from fintech expansion 


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.</li>
<li>Recently, Yanai-san sold more <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>. There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).</li>
<li>There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).
There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>3690 HK: Meituan Food Delivery Daily Orders Reach 90 Million (+)</li>
<li>JD US: JD Officially Launches OTA Hotel and Travel Business with Three-Year Zero Commission Policy(+/-/-)</li>
<li>1439927D CH/4689 JP/4755 JP/4385 JP: TikTok Announces Launch of Japan E-commerce Business as Early as This Month (+/-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


3690 HK: Meituan Food Delivery Daily Orders Reach 90 Million (+)
JD US: JD Officially Launches OTA Hotel and Travel Business with Three-Year Zero Commission Policy(+/-/-)
1439927D CH/4689 JP/4755 JP/4385 JP: TikTok Announces Launch of Japan E-commerce Business as Early as This Month (+/-/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/JD US/1439927D CH/4689 JP/4755 JP/4385 JP/700 HK/NTESUS/BABAUS

Japan

Mercari, Inc. operates as an electronic commercial company. The Company offers electronic commercial software, operation management, marketing planning, and other marketplace services. Mercari serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Mercari (4385 JP)

Mercari (4385 JP): Japan’s Leading C2C Trading App at 14x P/E with Margin Uplift Potential

I’m fascinated by the market for second-hand goods. eBay has existed for many decades, but it was only with the smartphone that the market took off.

Asian Century Stocks

Mercari (4385) | Profitability on the Rise with More Levers to Pull

Q2 saw record margins with Japan profitability up and losses narrowing in Fintech and the US; A US exit could lead to further margin improvement,...

Mark Chadwick

Mercari (4385) | Activist to Add Urgency

Q4 results show slowing GMV growth but better costs, management bullish on FY6/25 guidance, activist investor sees restructuring and fintech upside.

Mark Chadwick

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/JD US/1439927D CH/4689 JP/4755 JP/4385 JP/700 HK/NTESUS/BABAUS

Meituan Food Delivery hits 90 million daily orders, JD launches OTA hotel and travel business with zero commission policy, TikTok to launch Japan...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mercari (4385 JP): Japan’s Leading C2C Trading App at 14x P/E with Margin Uplift Potential

I’m fascinated by the market for second-hand goods. eBay has existed for many decades, but it was only with the smartphone that the market took off.

Asian Century Stocks

Mercari (4385) | Profitability on the Rise with More Levers to Pull

​Q2 saw record margins with Japan profitability up and losses narrowing in Fintech and the US; A US exit could lead to further margin improvement,...

Mark Chadwick

Mercari (4385) | Activist to Add Urgency

​Q4 results show slowing GMV growth but better costs, management bullish on FY6/25 guidance, activist investor sees restructuring and fintech upside.

Mark Chadwick

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/JD US/1439927D CH/4689 JP/4755 JP/4385 JP/700 HK/NTESUS/BABAUS

​Meituan Food Delivery hits 90 million daily orders, JD launches OTA hotel and travel business with zero commission policy, TikTok to launch Japan...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Q2 saw record margins with Japan profitability up and losses narrowing in Fintech and the US; A US exit could lead to further margin improvement,...

Q4 results show slowing GMV growth but better costs, management bullish on FY6/25 guidance, activist investor sees restructuring and fintech upside.

Meituan Food Delivery hits 90 million daily orders, JD launches OTA hotel and travel business with zero commission policy, TikTok to launch Japan...