Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Urbem (HK) Limited

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Eighteen S&amp;P 500 giants earned 20%-plus ROE through the 1990s; fourteen then trailed the index into 2026, the median by about 2.7 points a year.</li>
<li>Rich starting multiples, maturing runways, eroding moats and costly deals did the damage, while leverage and buybacks had flattered some of the returns on capital.</li>
<li>Microsoft renewed its runway and Altria started cheap; today's high-return screens should ask whether returns are still rising and whether the price still allows low-teens returns.</li>
</ul>


Eighteen S&amp;P 500 giants earned 20%-plus ROE through the 1990s; fourteen then trailed the index into 2026, the median by about 2.7 points a year.
Rich starting multiples, maturing runways, eroding moats and costly deals did the damage, while leverage and buybacks had flattered some of the returns on capital.
Microsoft renewed its runway and Altria started cheap; today's high-return screens should ask whether returns are still rising and whether the price still allows low-teens returns.


After They Were Giants: Why 2000's High-Return Stocks Mostly Lagged for 25 Years

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Sino Biopharmaceutical entered outlicensing agreement with Sanofi for rovadicitinib for upfront payment of $135M. Antengene entered outlicensing agreement with UCB for ATG-201 for upfront and near-term milestone payment of $80M.</li>
<li>FDA accepted Takeda’s NDA for polycythemia vera drug rusfertide and granted Priority Review.  Sumitomo Pharma received conditional and time‑limited approval in Japan for the allogeneic cell product Amchepry.</li>
<li>FDA has cleared ABL Bio’s application for a Phase 1 clinical trial of ABL209. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals received FDA approval for generic Flovent with 180-day CGT exclusivity.</li>
</ul>


Sino Biopharmaceutical entered outlicensing agreement with Sanofi for rovadicitinib for upfront payment of $135M. Antengene entered outlicensing agreement with UCB for ATG-201 for upfront and near-term milestone payment of $80M.
FDA accepted Takeda’s NDA for polycythemia vera drug rusfertide and granted Priority Review.  Sumitomo Pharma received conditional and time‑limited approval in Japan for the allogeneic cell product Amchepry.
FDA has cleared ABL Bio’s application for a Phase 1 clinical trial of ABL209. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals received FDA approval for generic Flovent with 180-day CGT exclusivity.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (March 8) – Sino Bio, Antengene, Takeda, Sumitomo Pharma, ABL Bio, Glenmark

<ul>
<li>Sichuan Kelun-Biotech announces Phase 3 trial success for ADC-Keytruda combination therapy in first-line lung cancer. ImmuneOnco received Phase 3 trial approval for IMM0306 lenalidomide combination for follicular lymphoma in China.</li>
<li>Otsuka received FDA accelerated approval of Voyxact for immunoglobulin A nephropathy. Eisai has completed FDA submission of Leqembi Iqlik subcutaneous autoinjector as a weekly starting dose for early Alzheimer’s disease.</li>
<li>Alteogen secures $15M milestone payment from Merck as Keytruda subcutaneous formulation gets EU approval. SK Biopharmaceuticals in-licenses second radiopharmaceutical candidate, which has potential to target clear cell renal cell carcinoma.  </li>
</ul>


Sichuan Kelun-Biotech announces Phase 3 trial success for ADC-Keytruda combination therapy in first-line lung cancer. ImmuneOnco received Phase 3 trial approval for IMM0306 lenalidomide combination for follicular lymphoma in China.
Otsuka received FDA accelerated approval of Voyxact for immunoglobulin A nephropathy. Eisai has completed FDA submission of Leqembi Iqlik subcutaneous autoinjector as a weekly starting dose for early Alzheimer’s disease.
Alteogen secures $15M milestone payment from Merck as Keytruda subcutaneous formulation gets EU approval. SK Biopharmaceuticals in-licenses second radiopharmaceutical candidate, which has potential to target clear cell renal cell carcinoma.  


APAC Healthcare Weekly (November 30) – Kelun Bio, ImmuneOnco, Otsuka, Eisai, Alteogen, SK Biopharma

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral</li>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here</li>
<li>Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200</li>
</ul>


We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral
The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here
Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200


Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

<ul>
<li>Fosun Pharma received approval for Fovinaciclib Citrate Capsules for certain types of breast cancers. Chugai’s oral GLP-1 drug candidate demonstrated semaglutide-beating result in Phase 3 trial being conducted by Lilly.</li>
<li>Astellas Pharma got conditional approval of Izervay in Japan. SK Biopharmaceuticals announced positive result from Phase 3 trial evaluating cenobamate for Primary Generalized Tonic-Clonic (PGTC) Seizures.</li>
<li>Alteogen’s partner Merck moved one step ahead toward European approval of subcutaneous version of Keytruda. HK inno.N has launched its acid-related gastrointestinal diseases drug, PCAB in India.</li>
</ul>


Fosun Pharma received approval for Fovinaciclib Citrate Capsules for certain types of breast cancers. Chugai’s oral GLP-1 drug candidate demonstrated semaglutide-beating result in Phase 3 trial being conducted by Lilly.
Astellas Pharma got conditional approval of Izervay in Japan. SK Biopharmaceuticals announced positive result from Phase 3 trial evaluating cenobamate for Primary Generalized Tonic-Clonic (PGTC) Seizures.
Alteogen’s partner Merck moved one step ahead toward European approval of subcutaneous version of Keytruda. HK inno.N has launched its acid-related gastrointestinal diseases drug, PCAB in India.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (September 21)– Fosun Pharm, Chugai, Astellas, SK Biopharm, Alteogen, HK Inno

United States

Merck & Co., Inc.  is a global health care company that delivers health solutions through its prescription medicines, vaccines, biologic therapies, animal health, and consumer care products, which it markets directly and through its joint ventures. The Company has operations in pharmaceutical, animal health, and consumer care.

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Merck & Co (MRK US)

After They Were Giants: Why 2000's High-Return Stocks Mostly Lagged for 25 Years

In 2000, America's highest-return giants looked like the safest quality stocks. Most then lagged the market for 25 years. Several warning signs...

Urbem Capital

APAC Healthcare Weekly (March 8) – Sino Bio, Antengene, Takeda, Sumitomo Pharma, ABL Bio, Glenmark

Sino Bio and Anetengene stuck outlicensing deals with Sanofi and UCB, respectively. FDA accepted Takeda’s NDA for rusfertide. Sumitomo Pharma got...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (November 30) – Kelun Bio, ImmuneOnco, Otsuka, Eisai, Alteogen, SK Biopharma

Kelun Bio announces Phase 3 trial success for ADC-Keytruda combo in first-line lung cancer. Otsuka got FDA approval for IgAN drug. Alteogen secures...

Tina Banerjee

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Near-Term Outlook to Neutral, But Still Bullish Intermediate-Term $SPX $QQQ; Downgrading...

Vermilion Research

APAC Healthcare Weekly (September 21)– Fosun Pharm, Chugai, Astellas, SK Biopharm, Alteogen, HK Inno

Fosun Pharma and Astellas got new drug approvals. Chugai and SK Biopharma announced positive Phase 3 trial result. Alteogen’s technology powered...

Tina Banerjee

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