New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>There is a ~65% probability of an El Niño event developing by the end of July 2026 with a strong likelihood that it develops into a ‘strong’ event by spring, peaking by the end of this year.</li><li>We see the potential earnings impact on NZX listed companies as minor, though think the risk premium for exposed names is likely to increase.</li><li>If a strong El Niño event leads to a meaningful deterioration in agricultural production, this could weigh on the domestic growth outlook and add to the risk of a more stagflationary economic environment.</li></ul>

There is a ~65% probability of an El Niño event developing by the end of July 2026 with a strong likelihood that it develops into a ‘strong’ event by spring, peaking by the end of this year.We see the potential earnings impact on NZX listed companies as minor, though think the risk premium for exposed names is likely to increase.If a strong El Niño event leads to a meaningful deterioration in agricultural production, this could weigh on the domestic growth outlook and add to the risk of a more stagflationary economic environment.

Equity Strategy El Nino—More Than Just Hot Air

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>With Brex's $5.15B exit to Capital One, the private B2B finance landscape is now defined by Ramp at $1B in annualized revenue (up 110% YoY) expanding from cards &amp; expense management into treasury &amp; deposits, versus Mercury at $650M in annualized revenue expanding from startup banking into the finance backoffice with corporate cards, bill pay &amp; expense management.</li><li>Mercury has decided to transition from neobank to a bank via its December 2025 application for a national bank charter with the OCC and FDIC deposit insurance, vertically integrating to own its underlying banking infrastructure, particularly after the Synapse bankruptcy (April 2024) froze $200M in customer funds and Evolve Bank's cease-and-desist (June 2024) forced Mercury through a painful account migration to Column &amp; Choice Financial Group.</li><li>Unlike Mercury &amp; Brex (which built its own card infrastructure), Ramp has chosen to maximize customer-facing product velocity, focus exclusively on the application layer and partner with infrastructure providers like Marqeta &amp; Stripe on card issuing and Increase for banking, betting that it can transform its majority interchange revenue into a software &amp; AI-heavy revenue mix, maintain 100%+ YoY growth rate and meet &amp; surpass its $32B valuation (32x revenue) as a high-growth AI company, not as a fintech or bank.</li></ul>

With Brex's $5.15B exit to Capital One, the private B2B finance landscape is now defined by Ramp at $1B in annualized revenue (up 110% YoY) expanding from cards &amp; expense management into treasury &amp; deposits, versus Mercury at $650M in annualized revenue expanding from startup banking into the finance backoffice with corporate cards, bill pay &amp; expense management.Mercury has decided to transition from neobank to a bank via its December 2025 application for a national bank charter with the OCC and FDIC deposit insurance, vertically integrating to own its underlying banking infrastructure, particularly after the Synapse bankruptcy (April 2024) froze $200M in customer funds and Evolve Bank's cease-and-desist (June 2024) forced Mercury through a painful account migration to Column &amp; Choice Financial Group.Unlike Mercury &amp; Brex (which built its own card infrastructure), Ramp has chosen to maximize customer-facing product velocity, focus exclusively on the application layer and partner with infrastructure providers like Marqeta &amp; Stripe on card issuing and Increase for banking, betting that it can transform its majority interchange revenue into a software &amp; AI-heavy revenue mix, maintain 100%+ YoY growth rate and meet &amp; surpass its $32B valuation (32x revenue) as a high-growth AI company, not as a fintech or bank.

<ul><li>Sacra estimates that Mercury hit $650M in annualized revenue in September 2025, up from $500M in 2024.</li><li>The company experienced explosive growth following Silicon Valley Bank&#39;s collapse in early 2023, capturing $2B in new deposits within just five days as startups sought safer banking alternatives.</li><li>Mercury&#39;s business model benefits significantly from the current high interest rate environment.</li></ul>

Sacra estimates that Mercury hit $650M in annualized revenue in September 2025, up from $500M in 2024.The company experienced explosive growth following Silicon Valley Bank&#39;s collapse in early 2023, capturing $2B in new deposits within just five days as startups sought safer banking alternatives.Mercury&#39;s business model benefits significantly from the current high interest rate environment.

<ul><li>Mercury both moved customers off of its former banking partner Evolve Bank &amp; Trust and continued to grow in the face of interest rate cuts.</li><li>Sacra estimates Mercury hit $650M in annualized revenue as of September 2025, up from $500M at the end of 2024.</li><li>Two Fed interest rate cuts in the fall of 2025 impacted Mercury’s revenue growth, which centers on interest revenue from deposits, trending at 41% YoY in 2025 down from 97% YoY in 2024.</li></ul>

Mercury both moved customers off of its former banking partner Evolve Bank &amp; Trust and continued to grow in the face of interest rate cuts.Sacra estimates Mercury hit $650M in annualized revenue as of September 2025, up from $500M at the end of 2024.Two Fed interest rate cuts in the fall of 2025 impacted Mercury’s revenue growth, which centers on interest revenue from deposits, trending at 41% YoY in 2025 down from 97% YoY in 2024.

<ul><li>Sacra estimates that Slash hit $255M in annualized revenue in March 2026, up from $235M at the end of 2025.</li><li>Slash raised $41.6 million in Series B funding in May 2025 led by Goodwater Capital, bringing its valuation to $370 million.</li><li>The company processes over $3 billion in annualized card spend across 5,000+ business customers.</li></ul>

Sacra estimates that Slash hit $255M in annualized revenue in March 2026, up from $235M at the end of 2025.Slash raised $41.6 million in Series B funding in May 2025 led by Goodwater Capital, bringing its valuation to $370 million.The company processes over $3 billion in annualized card spend across 5,000+ business customers.

United States

Banking software for startups offering checking accounts, cards, treasury, and venture debt

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Mercury (MERCURY US)

Equity Strategy El Nino—More Than Just Hot Air

There is a ~65% probability of an El Niño event developing by the end of July 2026 with a strong likelihood that it develops into a ‘strong’ event...

Forsyth Barr

Post-Brex Ramp Vs Mercury

TL;DR: While Ramp and Mercury are converging on product with treasury, bank accounts, corporate cards & expense management, they’re diverging on...

Sacra

Primer: Mercury - 10 Mar 2026

Banking software for startups offering checking accounts, cards, treasury, and venture debt

Sacra

Mercury At $650M/year

TL;DR: Confronting two major challenges in 2025, Mercury both moved customers off of its former banking partner Evolve Bank & Trust and continued...

Sacra

Primer: Slash - 21 May 2026

Business banking platform offering deposit accounts, corporate cards, and industry-specific financial solutions

Sacra

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