Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Merdeka Gold Resources / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Largest IPO 2025: EMAS IJ raised ~USD 281m, 4.6× oversubscribed, spun off from MDKA to fund Sulawesi’s Pani Gold Project.</li>
<li>Asset Scale: Pani holds 1.9 Moz reserves, 7 Moz resources; production to ramp from 145 koz (2026) to ~500 koz (2032).</li>
<li>Valuation &amp; Risks: IPO EV ~USD 3.2 bn; ~8–9× EV/EBITDA during 2026–29 heap leach, falling to ~2–3× at 2032 steady-state; execution, funding risks remain.</li>
</ul>


Largest IPO 2025: EMAS IJ raised ~USD 281m, 4.6× oversubscribed, spun off from MDKA to fund Sulawesi’s Pani Gold Project.
Asset Scale: Pani holds 1.9 Moz reserves, 7 Moz resources; production to ramp from 145 koz (2026) to ~500 koz (2032).
Valuation &amp; Risks: IPO EV ~USD 3.2 bn; ~8–9× EV/EBITDA during 2026–29 heap leach, falling to ~2–3× at 2032 steady-state; execution, funding risks remain.


Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ): Indonesia’s Largest IPO of 2025

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>MDKA recorded strong earnings of US$11.3mn in 4Q24 that was supported by strong Gold ASP and lower Copper cash cost.</li><li>Pani gold’s timeline is intact, with expected commissioning by late FY25.</li><li>We revised our FY25-27F earnings by -43%/-10%/0%, maintaining our TP at Rp2,400; reiterate Buy rating on upsides from growth projects.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

MDKA recorded strong earnings of US$11.3mn in 4Q24 that was supported by strong Gold ASP and lower Copper cash cost.Pani gold’s timeline is intact, with expected commissioning by late FY25.We revised our FY25-27F earnings by -43%/-10%/0%, maintaining our TP at Rp2,400; reiterate Buy rating on upsides from growth projects.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA.IJ) Anticipating Pani Gold to Boost Earnings..

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>The largest passive flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dayamitra-telekomunikasi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Dayamitra Telekomunikasi</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/map-aktif-adiperkasa-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27291:1" rel="noopener">MAP Aktif Adiperkasa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciputra-development-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5513:1" rel="noopener">Ciputra Development</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata</a>.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Indosat, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, MAP Aktif Adiperkasa, Bank Mandiri Persero, Ciputra Development and XL Axiata.
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 8 stocks listed in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines that could be deleted from passive portfolios in February.</li>
<li>There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$50m flow and between 3.5-64x ADV. Positioning is not very high in a lot of the stocks.</li>
<li>Stocks could avoid deletion if they move higher in the next week or two. But increased positioning could keep a lid on that.</li>
</ul>


There are 8 stocks listed in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines that could be deleted from passive portfolios in February.
There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$50m flow and between 3.5-64x ADV. Positioning is not very high in a lot of the stocks.
Stocks could avoid deletion if they move higher in the next week or two. But increased positioning could keep a lid on that.


Southeast Asia: The Passive Axe Hangs as Positioning Increases

Merdeka Battery Materials / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes each for the IDX30 Index, LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 October.</li>
<li>The largest passive flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-battery-materials-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36864:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Battery Materials</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-minerals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35927:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Minerals</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6061:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Energy</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indo-tambangraya-megah-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15891:1" rel="noopener">Indo Tambangraya Megah</a>.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes each for the IDX30 Index, LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 October.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Merdeka Battery Materials, Mitra Adiperkasa, Adaro Minerals, Bank Mandiri Persero, Amman Mineral Internasional, Adaro Energy and Indo Tambangraya Megah.
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Large Flows in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

Indonesia

PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk is an Indonesian metal and mineral mining holding company that explores, extracts, and produces gold, silver, copper, and other related minerals. The company operates the Tujuh Bukit Gold Mine, Wetar Copper Mine, and is developing the Pani Gold Mine and Tujuh Bukit Copper Project, along with Merdeka Battery Materials for nickel production. It was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ)

Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ): Indonesia’s Largest IPO of 2025

EMAS IJ's successful IPO raised $281m to fund Sulawesi's Pani Gold Project, with production expected to ramp up to 500 koz by 2032. Valuation at...

Rahul Jain