Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.</li>
<li>Most of the U.S. and Asian stocks we track are overbought, with Asian markets showing the strongest overbought conditions. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta (META US)</a>  and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300)</a>  offer bargain-hunting opportunities for tactical investors.
</li>
</ul>


A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.
Most of the U.S. and Asian stocks we track are overbought, with Asian markets showing the strongest overbought conditions. 


Meta (META US)  and the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300)  offer bargain-hunting opportunities for tactical investors.



Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?(Nov 4, 2025)

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nearly every comment on Japanese equities is focused on the half of the market that trades below book, but last week, Advantest, which trades at 18x book, exploded 30%.</li>
<li>Searches for “AI Bubble” on google are up 90%, but Advantest’s share price exploded because it became clear that investors were underestimating demand for AI related hardware.</li>
<li>Fear and Hype on both sides proved overdone. When I searched for the truth, I found only 1 red flag, 2 green, and 7 yellow.  </li>
</ul>


Nearly every comment on Japanese equities is focused on the half of the market that trades below book, but last week, Advantest, which trades at 18x book, exploded 30%.
Searches for “AI Bubble” on google are up 90%, but Advantest’s share price exploded because it became clear that investors were underestimating demand for AI related hardware.
Fear and Hype on both sides proved overdone. When I searched for the truth, I found only 1 red flag, 2 green, and 7 yellow.  


Advantest (6857) Bubble Watch: 1 Red Flag, 2 Green, 7 Yellow. You Decide.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>First 3 hyperscalers to report (GOOG, META, MSFT). GOOG and META increase 2025 Capex. GOOG and META mention “significant increase” or “larger increase” in 2026.</li>
<li>MSFT is in 1Q26, ending June-27. In FY25 Capex increased by 58% YoY. FY 26 capex will increase more than in FY25.</li>
<li>Altogether it looks like a ~50% Capex increase in 2026.</li>
</ul>


First 3 hyperscalers to report (GOOG, META, MSFT). GOOG and META increase 2025 Capex. GOOG and META mention “significant increase” or “larger increase” in 2026.
MSFT is in 1Q26, ending June-27. In FY25 Capex increased by 58% YoY. FY 26 capex will increase more than in FY25.
Altogether it looks like a ~50% Capex increase in 2026.


Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Active Global funds averaged +15.5% YTD, trailing the SPDR ACWI ETF’s +18.8%, with 73% underperforming the benchmark.</li>
<li>Value strategies led performance; Aggressive Growth funds lagged sharply, averaging just +10.15%.</li>
<li>Underweights in US Tech names like NVIDIA and Palantir, plus 2.4% cash holdings, drove relative losses.</li>
</ul>


Active Global funds averaged +15.5% YTD, trailing the SPDR ACWI ETF’s +18.8%, with 73% underperforming the benchmark.
Value strategies led performance; Aggressive Growth funds lagged sharply, averaging just +10.15%.
Underweights in US Tech names like NVIDIA and Palantir, plus 2.4% cash holdings, drove relative losses.


Global Active Funds Struggle to Close the Gap in 2025

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Companies in the public cloud are refreshing their server infrastructure every four to five years, but may accelerate this cycle due to the performance benefits of new CPUs and GPUs.</li><li>Despite advances in technology, older GPUs are still being used and making money for data centers, leading to questions about the economic lifespan of GPU systems.</li><li>Hyperscalers have adjusted their accounting policies to depreciate server hardware over longer periods, potentially impacting depreciation expenses.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Companies in the public cloud are refreshing their server infrastructure every four to five years, but may accelerate this cycle due to the performance benefits of new CPUs and GPUs.Despite advances in technology, older GPUs are still being used and making money for data centers, leading to questions about the economic lifespan of GPU systems.Hyperscalers have adjusted their accounting policies to depreciate server hardware over longer periods, potentially impacting depreciation expenses.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EP 138: Talking GPU Depreciation, OCP Takeaways

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?(Nov 4, 2025)

Our probabilistic analysis shows extreme overbought conditions across both US and Asian equities, with Asia being the most overheated. META and CSI...

Nico Rosti

Advantest (6857) Bubble Watch: 1 Red Flag, 2 Green, 7 Yellow. You Decide.

Half of Japan’s stocks trade below book value, while google searches for “AI bubble” have increased 90%, so Advantest, trading at 18x book just...

Michael Allen

Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?

GOOG and META plan significant Capex increase in 2026, while MSFT saw a 58% YoY increase in FY25 and expects more in FY26. Overall, a ~50% Capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Global Active Funds Struggle to Close the Gap in 2025

Global active funds face another uphill year—Value shines, but benchmark dominance, missed US Tech winners, and high cash weights keep most...

Steven Holden

EP 138: Talking GPU Depreciation, OCP Takeaways

Public cloud infrastructure refreshes involve periodically replacing servers with new CPUs, but the longer economic lifespan of older GPUs like...

The Circuit

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?(Nov 4, 2025)

Our probabilistic analysis shows extreme overbought conditions across both US and Asian equities, with Asia being the most overheated. META and CSI...

Nico Rosti

Advantest (6857) Bubble Watch: 1 Red Flag, 2 Green, 7 Yellow. You Decide.

Half of Japan’s stocks trade below book value, while google searches for “AI bubble” have increased 90%, so Advantest, trading at 18x book just...

Michael Allen

Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?

​GOOG and META plan significant Capex increase in 2026, while MSFT saw a 58% YoY increase in FY25 and expects more in FY26. Overall, a ~50% Capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Global Active Funds Struggle to Close the Gap in 2025

Global active funds face another uphill year—Value shines, but benchmark dominance, missed US Tech winners, and high cash weights keep most...

Steven Holden

EP 138: Talking GPU Depreciation, OCP Takeaways

Public cloud infrastructure refreshes involve periodically replacing servers with new CPUs, but the longer economic lifespan of older GPUs like...

The Circuit

GOOG and META plan significant Capex increase in 2026, while MSFT saw a 58% YoY increase in FY25 and expects more in FY26. Overall, a ~50% Capex...