High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We won’t be generation heads-down forever. Handsets are impractical as our primary device to interact with information technology.</li><li>When we use them, we lose touch to the real world. Headsets are the obvious next step to allow for a more integrated experience.</li><li>Meta has been betting on the handset-to-headset transition for more than a decade. And they have been doing so with courage and determination.</li></ul>

We won’t be generation heads-down forever. Handsets are impractical as our primary device to interact with information technology.When we use them, we lose touch to the real world. Headsets are the obvious next step to allow for a more integrated experience.Meta has been betting on the handset-to-headset transition for more than a decade. And they have been doing so with courage and determination.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>On Monday, June 30, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced the creation of Meta Superintelligence Labs, staffing it with a host of leading researchers from the likes of OpenAI and Google </li>
<li>With astronomical hiring bonuses and lucrative compensation packages, this newly assembled team will struggle to gel and likely drive an exodus of existing Meta AI employees elsewhere</li>
<li>Yann LeCun is sidelined in the MSL memo. He believes LLMs are not the way to achieve human-level AI. It appears that Mark Zuckerberg disagrees. Let's see...</li>
</ul>


On Monday, June 30, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced the creation of Meta Superintelligence Labs, staffing it with a host of leading researchers from the likes of OpenAI and Google 
With astronomical hiring bonuses and lucrative compensation packages, this newly assembled team will struggle to gel and likely drive an exodus of existing Meta AI employees elsewhere
Yann LeCun is sidelined in the MSL memo. He believes LLMs are not the way to achieve human-level AI. It appears that Mark Zuckerberg disagrees. Let's see...


Meta Superintelligence Labs. Genius Move Or Desperate Gamble?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Meta Platforms, Inc.'s first-quarter results of 2025 reflect a complex landscape of opportunities and challenges, driven significantly by the integration and expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) across its platforms.</li><li>The company reported strong financial performance with total revenue reaching $42.3 billion, a 16% increase year over-year.</li><li>This growth was driven largely by its Family of Apps, which includes Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, contributing $41.9 billion to total revenue.</li></ul>

Meta Platforms, Inc.'s first-quarter results of 2025 reflect a complex landscape of opportunities and challenges, driven significantly by the integration and expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) across its platforms.The company reported strong financial performance with total revenue reaching $42.3 billion, a 16% increase year over-year.This growth was driven largely by its Family of Apps, which includes Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, contributing $41.9 billion to total revenue.

Meta’s $14.8 Billion AI Power Play: Can Zuckerberg’s “Founder Mode” Save Its Superintelligence Bet?

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.</li>
<li>TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.</li>
<li>We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.</li>
</ul>


Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.
TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.
We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.


From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>KLA had a rare miss. The guidance was a bit light for the inspection execution machine.</li><li>KLA rarely misses and is by far the best financially managed of the large-cap semicap companies.</li><li>KLA reports Q2 EPS $6.16 ex-items vs FactSet $5.91</li></ul>

KLA had a rare miss. The guidance was a bit light for the inspection execution machine.KLA rarely misses and is by far the best financially managed of the large-cap semicap companies.KLA reports Q2 EPS $6.16 ex-items vs FactSet $5.91

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

Meta Just Bought into EssilorLuxottica.

We won’t be generation heads-down forever. Handsets are impractical as our primary device to interact with information technology.

Fallacy Alarm

Meta Superintelligence Labs. Genius Move Or Desperate Gamble?

Yann LeCun is sidelined in the Meta Superintelligence Labs memo. He believes LLMs are not the way to achieve human-level AI. It appears that Mark...

William Keating

Meta’s $14.8 Billion AI Power Play: Can Zuckerberg’s “Founder Mode” Save Its Superintelligence Bet?

Meta Platforms, Inc.'s first-quarter results of 2025 reflect a complex landscape of opportunities and challenges, driven significantly by the...

Baptista Research

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories? Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news already factored into the share price. We...

Andrew Lu

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

Another week of earnings, with KLA having a rare miss and the guidance being a bit light for the inspection execution machine.

Fabricated Knowledge

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