Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Currently, we see three F100 changes and four F250 changes. Some of these index change expectations are related to the changes made to the UK Listing Rules in June 2024.</li>
<li>The final changes will be decided based on 3rd December 2024 closing prices.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
Currently, we see three F100 changes and four F250 changes. Some of these index change expectations are related to the changes made to the UK Listing Rules in June 2024.
The final changes will be decided based on 3rd December 2024 closing prices.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 24: LONGs Up 10% Vs Index in a Month; Time for New Trade

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-witan-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44039:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Witan (ALW LN)</a> is the main candidate for addition in Top 100 (footsie 100) replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vistry-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21858:1" rel="noopener">Vistry Group (VTY LN)</a> whose price recently plummeted more than 50%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-james-s-place-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22168:1" rel="noopener">St James's Place (STJ LN)</a> is the next candidate for addition in Top 100 replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22158:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Group (FRAS LN)</a> with both stocks being extremely close to the entry-exit rank.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-bank-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25601:1" rel="noopener">Metro Bank (MTRO LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/diversified-energy-co-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41329:1" rel="noopener">Diversified Energy (DEC LN)</a> are the top two addition candidates for Next 250 (footsie 250), replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pz-cussons-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22102:1" rel="noopener">PZ Cussons (PZC LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/close-brothers-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21866:1" rel="noopener">Close Brothers (CBG LN)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Alliance Witan (ALW LN) is the main candidate for addition in Top 100 (footsie 100) replacing Vistry Group (VTY LN) whose price recently plummeted more than 50%.

St James's Place (STJ LN) is the next candidate for addition in Top 100 replacing Frasers Group (FRAS LN) with both stocks being extremely close to the entry-exit rank.

Metro Bank (MTRO LN) and Diversified Energy (DEC LN) are the top two addition candidates for Next 250 (footsie 250), replacing PZ Cussons (PZC LN) and Close Brothers (CBG LN).


FOOTSIE UK December 2024 Forecasts: ALW and STJ for Top 100; MTRO and DEC for Next 250

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the F100 and F250 indices during the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Separately, we see multiple M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the next few months.</li>
<li>There could also be more regular changes during the December 2024 rebalanced event</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the F100 and F250 indices during the December 2024 index rebal event.
Separately, we see multiple M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the next few months.
There could also be more regular changes during the December 2024 rebalanced event


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Thoughts Deliveroo and Coca-Cola; More Intra-Review Changes

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Always The Magician: Founded in 2010, Metro Bank plc (MTRO.LN) [Metro] was the first de novo high street bank in the United Kingdom in over 150 years. After a period of rapid growth, Metro ran into some difficulties. Over the years, we have learned never to count out Founder Vernon Hill (former Chair and Founder of former Commerce Bancorp in New Jersey) who always walks between the raindrops. Metro has moved forward with the sale of its mortgage portfolio to Natwest Group plc on December 18, 2020; and *Large Capital Gain: The sold Metro portfolio should provide the company with and GBP 83mm gain on sale – representing 42% of market-cap. The sale of 20% of Metro’s loan portfolio also removes Metro’s need to issue expensive MREL debt versus its prior debt guidance issuance of between GBP 200-300 mn.

 *Always The Magician: Founded in 2010, Metro Bank plc (MTRO.LN) [Metro] was the first de novo high street bank in the United Kingdom in over 150 years. After a period of rapid growth, Metro ran into some difficulties. Over the years, we have learned never to count out Founder Vernon Hill (former Chair and Founder of former Commerce Bancorp in New Jersey) who always walks between the raindrops. Metro has moved forward with the sale of its mortgage portfolio to Natwest Group plc on December 18, 2020; and *Large Capital Gain: The sold Metro portfolio should provide the company with and GBP 83mm gain on sale – representing 42% of market-cap. The sale of 20% of Metro’s loan portfolio also removes Metro’s need to issue expensive MREL debt versus its prior debt guidance issuance of between GBP 200-300 mn. 

United Kingdom

Metro Bank Holdings Plc is a holding company that, through its subsidiary Metro Bank PLC, provides retail and commercial banking services in the United Kingdom. It focuses on deposit-taking and lending activities for personal and small and medium-sized commercial customers, offering various bank accounts, savings, borrowing services, insurance, and mortgages. The company is headquartered in London, United Kingdom, and was founded in 2010.

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Metro Bank (MTRO LN)

Focus on Outperforming EAFE SMID-Caps

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 24: LONGs Up 10% Vs Index in a Month; Time for New Trade

The Top 10 F250 potential ADDs from the last insight have outperformed the F250 index by 10% since 24th October 2024. It might be time to revise...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

FOOTSIE UK December 2024 Forecasts: ALW and STJ for Top 100; MTRO and DEC for Next 250

Alliance Witan (ALW) and St James's Place (STJ) are the current forecasted additions to the UK's Top 100 index (footsie 100) replacing Vistry...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Thoughts Deliveroo and Coca-Cola; More Intra-Review Changes

Deliveroo could get into F250 in December 2024 while Coca-Cola might have to wait until March 2025 to get into F100 due to a minimum listing period...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Metro Bank Plc – Emrys

METRO BANK PLC: Metro was the first de novo high street bank in the United Kingdom in over 150 years. Metro ran into some difficulties, and moved...

Thomas J. Monaco

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Focus on Outperforming EAFE SMID-Caps

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 24: LONGs Up 10% Vs Index in a Month; Time for New Trade

The Top 10 F250 potential ADDs from the last insight have outperformed the F250 index by 10% since 24th October 2024. It might be time to revise...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

FOOTSIE UK December 2024 Forecasts: ALW and STJ for Top 100; MTRO and DEC for Next 250

​Alliance Witan (ALW) and St James's Place (STJ) are the current forecasted additions to the UK's Top 100 index (footsie 100) replacing Vistry...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Thoughts Deliveroo and Coca-Cola; More Intra-Review Changes

Deliveroo could get into F250 in December 2024 while Coca-Cola might have to wait until March 2025 to get into F100 due to a minimum listing period...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Metro Bank Plc – Emrys

METRO BANK PLC: Metro was the first de novo high street bank in the United Kingdom in over 150 years. Metro ran into some difficulties, and moved...

Thomas J. Monaco

Alliance Witan (ALW) and St James's Place (STJ) are the current forecasted additions to the UK's Top 100 index (footsie 100) replacing Vistry...