Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; </li><li>Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; </li><li>If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; </li></ul>

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; 

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

International Container Terminal Services / Event-Driven

International Container Terminal Services (ICT PM)

International Container Terminal Services

<ul>
<li>This insight is part of a series of M&amp;A guides our Quiddity* team are publishing to aid investors in understanding the rules, parameters, possibilities, and processes when companies conduct M&amp;A.</li>
<li>The initial guide - <a href="https://skr.ma/XWKji" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Quiddity Philippines M&amp;A Guide 2019</a> - was published in May 2019. Since that time, there have been various new developments. </li>
<li>This is an update. These insights are designed to be used as a reference. They are not actionable. For a list of Quiddity M&amp;A Guides, click <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/search?q=%22quiddity%20M%26A%20Guide%22" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
</ul>


This insight is part of a series of M&amp;A guides our Quiddity* team are publishing to aid investors in understanding the rules, parameters, possibilities, and processes when companies conduct M&amp;A.
The initial guide - Quiddity Philippines M&amp;A Guide 2019 - was published in May 2019. Since that time, there have been various new developments. 
This is an update. These insights are designed to be used as a reference. They are not actionable. For a list of Quiddity M&amp;A Guides, click here.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Maynilad Water Services / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maynilad-water-services-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44852:1" rel="noopener">Maynilad Water Services</a> (MWS) raised around US$520m in its Philippines IPO.</li>
<li>MWS is a leading global water utility player operating the largest concession by population served within a single concession area in the Philippines and Southeast Asia (SEA), as per GlobalData.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Maynilad Water Services (MWS) raised around US$520m in its Philippines IPO.
MWS is a leading global water utility player operating the largest concession by population served within a single concession area in the Philippines and Southeast Asia (SEA), as per GlobalData.
We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Maynilad Water Services IPO Trading - Main Peer Has Corrected, Still at a Yield Discount

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://skr.ma/wK6xN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad's IPO Price Firmed</a>, I discussed Maynilad's upcoming IPO, a company controlled by MPIC, which in turn, is controlled by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Since that note, I have tracked down Maynilad's elusive prospectus.</li>
<li>This insight is largely a rehash of yesterday's note, together with updated numbers applying prospectus figures. I thought this warranted a fresh insight as opposed to a boomerang.</li>
</ul>


In First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad's IPO Price Firmed, I discussed Maynilad's upcoming IPO, a company controlled by MPIC, which in turn, is controlled by First Pacific Co (142 HK).
Since that note, I have tracked down Maynilad's elusive prospectus.
This insight is largely a rehash of yesterday's note, together with updated numbers applying prospectus figures. I thought this warranted a fresh insight as opposed to a boomerang.


First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad's IPO (Now With Prospectus Numbers)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a>'s 49.9%-held MPIC is spinning off Maynilad, a distributor of potable water and provider of sewage services, on the Philippine exchange.</li>
<li>The IPO has been priced at PHP 15/share, down 25% from earlier expectations. Proceeds may reach PHP 34bn (~US$580mn), in the largest Filipino IPO since 2021. </li>
<li>First Pac's NAV discount has drifted off a recent multi-year narrowing, but remains elevated for a multiple cross-border, difficult to short holdco.</li>
</ul>



First Pacific Co (142 HK)'s 49.9%-held MPIC is spinning off Maynilad, a distributor of potable water and provider of sewage services, on the Philippine exchange.
The IPO has been priced at PHP 15/share, down 25% from earlier expectations. Proceeds may reach PHP 34bn (~US$580mn), in the largest Filipino IPO since 2021. 
First Pac's NAV discount has drifted off a recent multi-year narrowing, but remains elevated for a multiple cross-border, difficult to short holdco.


First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad's IPO Price Firmed

Philippines

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation (MPIC) is a Philippine-based investment and management company focused on infrastructure. It holds diverse assets in water utilities, toll roads, electricity distribution, hospital operations, light rail, and agribusiness. MPIC was incorporated in the Philippines and registered with the SEC on March 20, 2006, and is headquartered in Pasig City, Philippines.

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Metro Pacific Investments (MPI PM)

Be Wary of High LDR Banks at Present

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity M&A Guide 2026: Philippines

This insight is part of a series of M&A guides our Quiddity* team are publishing to aid investors in understanding the rules, parameters,...

David Blennerhassett

Maynilad Water Services IPO Trading - Main Peer Has Corrected, Still at a Yield Discount

Maynilad Water Services (MWS) raised around US$520m in its Philippines IPO. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad's IPO (Now With Prospectus Numbers)

This insight is largely a rehash of yesterday's note, together with updated numbers applying prospectus figures. I thought this warranted a fresh...

David Blennerhassett

First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad's IPO Price Firmed

First Pac's NAV discount is elevated for a multiple cross-border, difficult to short holdco. Maynilad's IPO was priced below expectations. Plus the...

David Blennerhassett

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