European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.</li>
<li>The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A is at irrational highs (54.2%); the discount of Grifols B has tightened (Brookfield is again knocking at the door). </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.
The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A is at irrational highs (54.2%); the discount of Grifols B has tightened (Brookfield is again knocking at the door). 
Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '25 Report

<ul>
<li>PPF launched a superior partial cash offer at €7.00 per share, positioning itself as a white knight against MFE’s lower-value bid and supporting ProSiebenSat.1’s current strategy.</li>
<li>MFE’s mixed cash-share offer, based on a €5.70 valuation, lacks a premium and aims for creeping control; it has published its offer prospectus but hasn’t raised the price.</li>
<li>Risk arbitrageurs may find an attractive setup in long ProSiebenSat.1, short MFE trades, though apportionment and offer risks require careful sizing and attention to German takeover rules.</li>
</ul>


PPF launched a superior partial cash offer at €7.00 per share, positioning itself as a white knight against MFE’s lower-value bid and supporting ProSiebenSat.1’s current strategy.
MFE’s mixed cash-share offer, based on a €5.70 valuation, lacks a premium and aims for creeping control; it has published its offer prospectus but hasn’t raised the price.
Risk arbitrageurs may find an attractive setup in long ProSiebenSat.1, short MFE trades, though apportionment and offer risks require careful sizing and attention to German takeover rules.


Broadcast Battles: PPF’s White Knight Bid Challenges MFE’s Media Ambition

<ul>
<li>Since mid-March, amid sessions of significant volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.</li>
<li>The discount of Grifols B has widened although Brookfield is again knocking at the door; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 48% premium to A shares. </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-March, amid sessions of significant volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.
The discount of Grifols B has widened although Brookfield is again knocking at the door; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 48% premium to A shares. 
Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '25 Report

<ul>
<li>Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, <em>aiming</em> (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.</li>
<li>Following Telecom Italia's strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.</li>
<li>Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, aiming (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.
Following Telecom Italia's strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.
Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.


Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

<ul>
<li>MFE’s €5.70/share offer reflects strategic aims, not a traditional control premium, and values ProSieben near peer multiples amid industry disruption and weak organic growth prospects.</li>
<li>The deal structure and German takeover law enable MFE to carry out a creeping takeover strategy, allowing it to gradually increase its stake post-settlement without launching a new public offer.</li>
<li>Estimated net synergies of €1.00–1.39 per share, boosting the deal’s potential strategic return.Market skepticism is visible in the -10.2% gross spread.</li>
</ul>


MFE’s €5.70/share offer reflects strategic aims, not a traditional control premium, and values ProSieben near peer multiples amid industry disruption and weak organic growth prospects.
The deal structure and German takeover law enable MFE to carry out a creeping takeover strategy, allowing it to gradually increase its stake post-settlement without launching a new public offer.
Estimated net synergies of €1.00–1.39 per share, boosting the deal’s potential strategic return.Market skepticism is visible in the -10.2% gross spread.


MFE Tunes In to ProSieben for a Pan-European Broadcast Power Play

Italy

MFE-MediaForEurope N.V. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates television broadcasting, television production, signal broadcasting management, and music production businesses, as well as television stations. MFE-MediaForEurope serves customers in Europe.

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MFE-Media for Europe NV (MFEB IM)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '25 Report

Since mid-April, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Broadcast Battles: PPF’s White Knight Bid Challenges MFE’s Media Ambition

PPF launches a superior partial offer for ProSieben, challenging MFE's control bid. A pivotal contest in European media with clear risk-arb angles,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '25 Report

Since mid-March, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE Tunes In to ProSieben for a Pan-European Broadcast Power Play

MFE's offer for ProSieben reflects strategic aims, not a control premium, amid industry disruption and weak growth prospects. Market skepticism...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '25 Report

Since mid-April, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Broadcast Battles: PPF’s White Knight Bid Challenges MFE’s Media Ambition

PPF launches a superior partial offer for ProSieben, challenging MFE's control bid. A pivotal contest in European media with clear risk-arb angles,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '25 Report

Since mid-March, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

​Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE Tunes In to ProSieben for a Pan-European Broadcast Power Play

​MFE's offer for ProSieben reflects strategic aims, not a control premium, amid industry disruption and weak growth prospects. Market skepticism...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

MFE's offer for ProSieben reflects strategic aims, not a control premium, amid industry disruption and weak growth prospects. Market skepticism...