European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Mediaset España Comunicación, S.A. / Event-Driven

Mediaset España Comunicación, S.A. (TL5 SM)

<ul>
<li>MFE improves the cash component to €2.16/share, taking the package value to €4.75 (6 June). The acceptance period has been suspended; the CNMV will inform of the new acceptance period.</li>
<li>The sweetened price seems more reasonable. The Board of Mediaset España is now minded to recommend the offer, but the low valuation of both companies does not help the deal.</li>
<li>Holdouts may expose themselves to being trapped in a group with an even stronger control by MFE with no qualms about running its subsidiary for its own interests.</li>
</ul>


MFE improves the cash component to €2.16/share, taking the package value to €4.75 (6 June). The acceptance period has been suspended; the CNMV will inform of the new acceptance period.
The sweetened price seems more reasonable. The Board of Mediaset España is now minded to recommend the offer, but the low valuation of both companies does not help the deal.
Holdouts may expose themselves to being trapped in a group with an even stronger control by MFE with no qualms about running its subsidiary for its own interests.


MFE/​​Mediaset España: Sweetened Offer

<ul>
<li>On 26 May, the CNMV authorized the bid. The offer period will end on 28 June. Mediaset España shareholders do not seem very excited about the offer though.</li>
<li>Analysts' median TP (Refinitiv) of Mediaset España  is €6.58/share, vs. the package worth €4.452 as of 30 May, 19.4% below value upon offer announcement. Market sentiment is negative.</li>
<li>As of 30 May, risk arb spread is 4.2% (MFE dividend not included). It seems increasingly unlikely that the offer is successful and Mediaset España delisted, in my view.</li>
</ul>


On 26 May, the CNMV authorized the bid. The offer period will end on 28 June. Mediaset España shareholders do not seem very excited about the offer though.
Analysts' median TP (Refinitiv) of Mediaset España  is €6.58/share, vs. the package worth €4.452 as of 30 May, 19.4% below value upon offer announcement. Market sentiment is negative.
As of 30 May, risk arb spread is 4.2% (MFE dividend not included). It seems increasingly unlikely that the offer is successful and Mediaset España delisted, in my view.


MFE/​Mediaset España: Start of Offer Period with Lower Success Expectations

<ul>
<li>Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market gains.</li>
<li>Recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Investor AB, SSAB.</li>
<li>Recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson Handelsbanken, Roche, Schroders.</li>
</ul>


Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market gains.
Recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Investor AB, SSAB.
Recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson Handelsbanken, Roche, Schroders.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '22 Report

<ul>
<li>MFEA lower-voting ordinary shares are trading at a 33.6% discount relative to the MFEB high-ordinary shares, which seems excessive (and above the 32% average since listing of A-shares).</li>
<li>If the offer for TL5 SM succeeds, MFEA would represent 0.68x the number of MFEB and 6.81x the number of votes of MFEB, thus increased percentage of votes and liquidity.</li>
<li>Estimated settlement of the takeover is 1 September. I target a 25% discount and recommend long 1 MFEA IM/short 1 MFEB IM.</li>
</ul>


MFEA lower-voting ordinary shares are trading at a 33.6% discount relative to the MFEB high-ordinary shares, which seems excessive (and above the 32% average since listing of A-shares).
If the offer for TL5 SM succeeds, MFEA would represent 0.68x the number of MFEB and 6.81x the number of votes of MFEB, thus increased percentage of votes and liquidity.
Estimated settlement of the takeover is 1 September. I target a 25% discount and recommend long 1 MFEA IM/short 1 MFEB IM.


Media for Europe: Catalyst for Tightening of the Discount of A Shares

<ul>
<li>Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market gains.</li>
<li>Recommendations Long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Svenska Handelsbanken, Ericsson.</li>
<li>Recommendations Long prefs / short ords: Danieli, Sixt, Atlas Copco, Grifols, Telecom Italia, Volvo AB, Volkswagen, Schroders.</li>
</ul>


Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market gains.
Recommendations Long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Svenska Handelsbanken, Ericsson.
Recommendations Long prefs / short ords: Danieli, Sixt, Atlas Copco, Grifols, Telecom Italia, Volvo AB, Volkswagen, Schroders.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘22 Report

Italy

MFE-MediaForEurope NV is an international holding company specializing in free-to-air and pay-TV production and distribution across multiple platforms, alongside film and multimedia production, distribution, and advertising sales. The company offers commercial television, radio, digital, and on-demand services, and is a major shareholder in European broadcasters. It was founded in 2021 and has its headquarters in Cologno Monzese, Italy, with a registered office in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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MFE-MediaForEurope (MFEB IM)

MFE/Mediaset España: Sweetened Offer

MFE sweetness the offer in small steps to ensure success. It has now increased the cash consideration in order to revive the deal.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE/Mediaset España: Start of Offer Period with Lower Success Expectations

The offer period has started, but MEdiasset España shareholders do not seem too keen on the offer as the consideration package is c. 20% below its...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '22 Report

Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market gains. Schroders announced a share class unification.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Media for Europe: Catalyst for Tightening of the Discount of A Shares

In the event that the offer for TL5 is accepted by all shareholders, the number of low-voting MFEA would increase relative to high-voting MFEB, and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘22 Report

Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe in line with the recent market gains. Danieli, Media for Europe, Schroders and Sixt...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MFE/​​Mediaset España: Sweetened Offer

MFE sweetness the offer in small steps to ensure success. It has now increased the cash consideration in order to revive the deal.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE/​Mediaset España: Start of Offer Period with Lower Success Expectations

The offer period has started, but MEdiasset España shareholders do not seem too keen on the offer as the consideration package is c. 20% below its...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '22 Report

Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market gains. Schroders announced a share class unification.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Media for Europe: Catalyst for Tightening of the Discount of A Shares

In the event that the offer for TL5 is accepted by all shareholders, the number of low-voting MFEA would increase relative to high-voting MFEB, and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘22 Report

Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe in line with the recent market gains. Danieli, Media for Europe, Schroders and Sixt...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE/Mediaset España: Sweetened Offer

MFE/Mediaset España: Start of Offer Period with Lower Success Expectations