Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.</li>
<li>Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.</li>
<li>If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!</li>
</ul>


Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are getting the test of the lows we have been calling for, following some indiscriminate selling late last week which produced back-to-back 80%+ downside volume days on the NYSE.</li>
<li>There can certainly be more 80%-90%+ downside days that take the indexes to new lows.</li>
<li>We need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside day on the NYSE in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is in place</li>
</ul>


We are getting the test of the lows we have been calling for, following some indiscriminate selling late last week which produced back-to-back 80%+ downside volume days on the NYSE.
There can certainly be more 80%-90%+ downside days that take the indexes to new lows.
We need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside day on the NYSE in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is in place


Panic Selling Achieved, Now Waiting for Panic Buying; Major Indexes At/Near Support

Today we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the broad market. Still, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

Today we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the broad market. Still, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Short-selling opportunity in American whiskey prices, with MGPI as a target</li><li>Stock price of company declined 15% after reporting, but author sees larger downward trend</li><li>Changing market dynamics provide significant upside potential for short position, timed well to capitalize on industry changes.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Short-selling opportunity in American whiskey prices, with MGPI as a targetStock price of company declined 15% after reporting, but author sees larger downward trendChanging market dynamics provide significant upside potential for short position, timed well to capitalize on industry changes.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Mgp Ingredients Inc (MGPI) - Thursday, Feb 22, 2024

Key points (machine generated)<ul><li>MGP Ingredients is a producer and supplier of premium distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients.</li><li>The company started as a third-party supplier of premium food grade alcohols to American whiskey manufacturers and has expanded its operations through acquisitions.</li><li>MGP Ingredients operates in three segments: distilling solutions, branded spirits, and specialty ingredients. </li></ul>This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points (machine generated)MGP Ingredients is a producer and supplier of premium distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients.The company started as a third-party supplier of premium food grade alcohols to American whiskey manufacturers and has expanded its operations through acquisitions.MGP Ingredients operates in three segments: distilling solutions, branded spirits, and specialty ingredients. This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Mgp Ingredients (MGPI) - Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023

United States

MGP Ingredients, Inc. produces and markets ingredients and distillery products. The Company's ingredients include specialty wheat starches and specialty wheat proteins for food and non-food applications, commodity ingredients, including commodity wheat starches and vital wheat gluten, and mill feeds.  MGP's distillery products consist of food-grade alcohol.

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MGP Ingredients (MGPI US)

Monday Delight: 24/03/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help...

Contrarian Cashflows

Panic Selling Achieved, Now Waiting for Panic Buying; Major Indexes At/Near Support

Now that we have seen indiscriminate panic selling, we are now looking for panic buying in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is...

Vermilion Research

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Below we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the...

Vermilion Research

Mgp Ingredients Inc (MGPI) - Thursday, Feb 22, 2024

Short-selling opportunity in American whiskey prices, with MGPI as a target. Stock price of company declined 15% after reporting, but author sees...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Mgp Ingredients (MGPI) - Wednesday, Nov 8, 2023

The company started as a third-party supplier of premium food grade alcohols to American whiskey manufacturers and has expanded its operations...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)