Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.</li>
<li>Semiconductor inventory to sales and gross margins near record levels, hardware metrics are high as well but less extreme.</li>
<li>Formosa SUMCO, Macronix, Nanya Technology, Hon Hai Precision, and Flexium appear ahead of the inventory correction curve and well-placed as long positions for the current phase of the cycle.</li>
</ul>


We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.
Semiconductor inventory to sales and gross margins near record levels, hardware metrics are high as well but less extreme.
Formosa SUMCO, Macronix, Nanya Technology, Hon Hai Precision, and Flexium appear ahead of the inventory correction curve and well-placed as long positions for the current phase of the cycle.


Taiwan Tech: Who's Ahead of the Inventory Cycle?

Taiwan Tech Focused Asia L/S Analyst

Henry King

<ul>
<li>Our latest checks with VGA card makers, ABF substate companies and mining system thermal suppliers all indicate VGA card demand is weakening.</li>
<li>Sanction on Russia and Shenzhen lockdown also dampens the VGA card downward trend</li>
<li>GPU prices remain unchanged though VGA card prices continue to fall. VGA card makers' sales and profit premium from the ASP hike shrinks gradually.</li>
</ul>


Our latest checks with VGA card makers, ABF substate companies and mining system thermal suppliers all indicate VGA card demand is weakening.
Sanction on Russia and Shenzhen lockdown also dampens the VGA card downward trend
GPU prices remain unchanged though VGA card prices continue to fall. VGA card makers' sales and profit premium from the ASP hike shrinks gradually.


More Evidences Show VGA Card Demand Is Weakening. Maintain Our Conservative View on VGA Card Market

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance remains higher for global equities (MSCI ACWI). As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a positive outlook is warranted. Support levels to watch include $75 on ACWI-US, $44 on ACWX-US, $41 on EEM-US, and $60 on EFA-US. We recap significant technical levels across major markets and highlight specific opportunities within the Technology and Materials Sectors.

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance remains higher for global equities (MSCI ACWI). As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a positive outlook is warranted. Support levels to watch include $75 on ACWI-US, $44 on ACWX-US, $41 on EEM-US, and $60 on EFA-US. We recap significant technical levels across major markets and highlight specific opportunities within the Technology and Materials Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally. These ongoing improvements further cement our positive overall outlook, and we continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are poised for additional strength moving forward. In our April International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our overall positive outlook, along with areas within the world's markets where we see immediate opportunity.

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally. These ongoing improvements further cement our positive overall outlook, and we continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are poised for additional strength moving forward. In our April International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our overall positive outlook, along with areas within the world's markets where we see immediate opportunity.

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Positive Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight China

In our June International Strategy, we explore the following themes in detail:<ul><li> Early-stage MSCI ACWI uptrend combined with constructive breadth indicators helps support our increasingly bullish outlook.</li><li>Cyclical and growth Sectors are leadership. Within Consumer Discretionary we highlight Restaurants, and within Technology we highlight Semiconductors.</li><li>Within International Developed, overweight small-caps, Japan, and Norway.</li><li>Broad Emerging Market relative strength is deteriorating. Be selective.</li></ul>

In our June International Strategy, we explore the following themes in detail: Early-stage MSCI ACWI uptrend combined with constructive breadth indicators helps support our increasingly bullish outlook.Cyclical and growth Sectors are leadership. Within Consumer Discretionary we highlight Restaurants, and within Technology we highlight Semiconductors.Within International Developed, overweight small-caps, Japan, and Norway.Broad Emerging Market relative strength is deteriorating. Be selective.

Global Equity Strategy: ACWI and EM Testing Support

Taiwan

Micro-Star International Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets motherboards and video graphic accelerate (VGA) cards.  The Company exports its products to Europe, North America, and other Asian countries.

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Micro Star International (2377 TT)

Taiwan Tech: Who's Ahead of the Inventory Cycle?

We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

More Evidences Show VGA Card Demand Is Weakening. Maintain Our Conservative View on VGA Card Market

After several years of robust growth on mining demand, we are likely to see the turning point for VGA cards in 1H22. We see more data points in...

Henry King

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance remains higher for global equities (MSCI ACWI). As long as...

Vermilion Research

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Positive Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight China

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally....

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: ACWI and EM Testing Support

In our June International Strategy, we explore the following themes in detail: Early-stage MSCI ACWI uptrend combined with constructive breadth...

Vermilion Research

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