Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Shanghai United Imaging Health / Index Rebalance

Shanghai United Imaging Health (688271 CH)

<ul>
<li>Nearly 90% of the way through the review period, we see 4 changes using a 12 month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6 month minimum listing history.</li>
<li>There are overlaps in the inclusions using 6/12 month minimum listing history, so there is less risk if the index committee switches from 6 to 12 months at the review.</li>
<li>Using a 6 month minimum listing history, one-way turnover is estimated at 5.07% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 2,795m.</li>
</ul>


Nearly 90% of the way through the review period, we see 4 changes using a 12 month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6 month minimum listing history.
There are overlaps in the inclusions using 6/12 month minimum listing history, so there is less risk if the index committee switches from 6 to 12 months at the review.
Using a 6 month minimum listing history, one-way turnover is estimated at 5.07% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 2,795m.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four or Five Changes in December

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The main logic of Micro-Tech’s performance growth is import substitution, but the Company is facing some challenges in the short term, such as centralized procurement, pandemic, inflation, etc.</li>
<li>Micro-Tech will face lower-than-expected performance growth in 2022. Since the whole series of products would be covered by centralized procurement, the valuation of Micro-Tech should be lower than Mindray.</li>
<li>However, there are possibilities for Micro-Tech to achieve a turnaround (with bottom-fishing opportunity) if it could make a breakthrough in internationalization and product innovation. We recommend investors follow Micro-Tech closely.</li>
</ul>


The main logic of Micro-Tech’s performance growth is import substitution, but the Company is facing some challenges in the short term, such as centralized procurement, pandemic, inflation, etc.
Micro-Tech will face lower-than-expected performance growth in 2022. Since the whole series of products would be covered by centralized procurement, the valuation of Micro-Tech should be lower than Mindray.
However, there are possibilities for Micro-Tech to achieve a turnaround (with bottom-fishing opportunity) if it could make a breakthrough in internationalization and product innovation. We recommend investors follow Micro-Tech closely.


Micro-Tech Nanjing (688029.CH) - Potential for Reversals Despite Short-Term Pressure on Performance

<ul>
<li>Over 96% of the way through the review period, we see 1 change using a 12 month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6 month minimum listing history.</li>
<li>We expect the index committee to continue using the shorter minimum listing history since the potential adds have much larger market caps than the potential deletes.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month and there could be more once the current consolidation is complete.</li>
</ul>


Over 96% of the way through the review period, we see 1 change using a 12 month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6 month minimum listing history.
We expect the index committee to continue using the shorter minimum listing history since the potential adds have much larger market caps than the potential deletes.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month and there could be more once the current consolidation is complete.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Adds Outperforming the Deletes

<ul>
<li>With only one change expected in September using a 12 month minimum listing history, we expect the index committee to continue using a 6 month minimum listing history.</li>
<li>That will see the maximum of 5 changes that are permitted at a single rebalance resulting in a one-way turnover just shy of 5%.</li>
<li>Over the last few rebalances, the adds have outperformed the deletes post the end of the review period. That's expected given passive trackers need to buy/sell a lot of stock.</li>
</ul>


With only one change expected in September using a 12 month minimum listing history, we expect the index committee to continue using a 6 month minimum listing history.
That will see the maximum of 5 changes that are permitted at a single rebalance resulting in a one-way turnover just shy of 5%.
Over the last few rebalances, the adds have outperformed the deletes post the end of the review period. That's expected given passive trackers need to buy/sell a lot of stock.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Change Is the Only Constant

Equity Capital Markets

Betters Medical Investment Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

Betters Medical Investment Holdings (BMI HK)

<ul>
<li>The MWA market that Betters belongs to has showed rapid growth and large potential. Obviously, Betters would benefit from it based on its existing products and leading market position.</li>
<li>However, the medical device industry in China is subject to strict policy supervision. It cannot rule out the possibility that the Company’s products would be included in the centralized procurement.</li>
<li>In terms of valuation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micro-tech-nanjing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30320:1" rel="noopener">Micro-Tech Nanjing Co Ltd (688029 CH)</a> could be a comparable company,  but Betters' valuation should be lower than it.</li>
</ul>


The MWA market that Betters belongs to has showed rapid growth and large potential. Obviously, Betters would benefit from it based on its existing products and leading market position.
However, the medical device industry in China is subject to strict policy supervision. It cannot rule out the possibility that the Company’s products would be included in the centralized procurement.
In terms of valuation, Micro-Tech Nanjing Co Ltd (688029 CH) could be a comparable company,  but Betters' valuation should be lower than it.


Pre-IPO Betters Medical Investment Holdings - The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

China

Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes medical equipment. The Company produces gastrointestinal equipment, biliary equipment, pulmonary equipment, and other related equipment. Micro-Tech (Nanjing) also operates import and export businesses.

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Micro-Tech Nanjing (688029 CH)

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four or Five Changes in December

There could be 4/5 changes if a 12/6 month minimum listing history is used. Using a 6 month minimum listing history, one-way turnover is estimated...

Brian Freitas