Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation is market cap of US$5.4 billion or target price of US$35.9 per share, which is 20% higher than high end of the IPO price range (US$30).</li>
<li>We estimate Astera Labs (ALAB US) to generate revenue of $221.3 million (up 91.1% YoY) in 2024 and $304.5 million (up 37.5% YoY) in 2025.</li>
<li>Many investors are willing to take extra risk to invest in companies such as Astera Labs that could generate strong sales growth amid rush to aggressively expand AI capabilities.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation is market cap of US$5.4 billion or target price of US$35.9 per share, which is 20% higher than high end of the IPO price range (US$30).
We estimate Astera Labs (ALAB US) to generate revenue of $221.3 million (up 91.1% YoY) in 2024 and $304.5 million (up 37.5% YoY) in 2025.
Many investors are willing to take extra risk to invest in companies such as Astera Labs that could generate strong sales growth amid rush to aggressively expand AI capabilities.


<ul>
<li>Astera Labs (ALAB US) is scheduled to debut its IPO on 20 March. The company is offering 17.8 million shares at a price of $27 to $30 per share. </li>
<li>Founded in 2017, Astera Labs is a fabless semiconductor company headquartered in Silicon Valley. The company designs and sells semiconductor technology, but the production is outsourced.</li>
<li>Astera Labs' major competitors include Montage Technology (688008 CH), Parade Technologies (4966 TT), Broadcom (AVGO US), Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO US), and Marvell Technology (MRVL US).</li>
</ul>


Astera Labs (ALAB US) is scheduled to debut its IPO on 20 March. The company is offering 17.8 million shares at a price of $27 to $30 per share. 
Founded in 2017, Astera Labs is a fabless semiconductor company headquartered in Silicon Valley. The company designs and sells semiconductor technology, but the production is outsourced.
Astera Labs' major competitors include Montage Technology (688008 CH), Parade Technologies (4966 TT), Broadcom (AVGO US), Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO US), and Marvell Technology (MRVL US).


Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Astera Labs, a cloud- and AI connectivity-focused semiconductor company, filed to go public. Top-tier underwriters Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan are leading the offering.</li>
<li>The fabless semiconductor unicorn plans to raise up to $500M. Selling stockholders intend to sell shares and the number of shares is yet to be announced.</li>
<li>I like the long-term, AI/cloud story. However, the IPO may look too pricey at more than $3B valuation despite the company’s revenue acceleration and improving profitability.</li>
</ul>


Astera Labs, a cloud- and AI connectivity-focused semiconductor company, filed to go public. Top-tier underwriters Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan are leading the offering.
The fabless semiconductor unicorn plans to raise up to $500M. Selling stockholders intend to sell shares and the number of shares is yet to be announced.
I like the long-term, AI/cloud story. However, the IPO may look too pricey at more than $3B valuation despite the company’s revenue acceleration and improving profitability.


Astera Labs IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Will Pricey IPO Frighten The Investors Off?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Microchip Technology, a leading provider of microcontroller and analogue semiconductors, reported its third quarter 2024 financial results which were below expectations as net sales dropped 21.7% sequentially and 18.6% year-over-year due to increased business uncertainty, slowing economic activity, and higher inventory levels among customers.</li><li>Despite a challenging environment, the company's non-GAAP gross and operating margins showed some resilience at 63.8% and 41.2% respectively.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Microchip Technology, a leading provider of microcontroller and analogue semiconductors, reported its third quarter 2024 financial results which were below expectations as net sales dropped 21.7% sequentially and 18.6% year-over-year due to increased business uncertainty, slowing economic activity, and higher inventory levels among customers.Despite a challenging environment, the company's non-GAAP gross and operating margins showed some resilience at 63.8% and 41.2% respectively.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Microchip Technology: How Their Latest Innovations Are Set to Dominate the Market! - Major Drivers

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>Mobileye surprised markets with <a href="https://substack.com/redirect/3fc360ae-f88e-43b3-82aa-f1bfc3fe83c0?j=eyJ1IjoiMmh6Z2Z6In0.muIDtmM5oyqUKBSSZiLNsipOMwhSsKSSacAB3JlN14Y" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://substack.com/redirect/3fc360ae-f88e-43b3-82aa-f1bfc3fe83c0?j%3DeyJ1IjoiMmh6Z2Z6In0.muIDtmM5oyqUKBSSZiLNsipOMwhSsKSSacAB3JlN14Y&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1704936787096000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3gN2WPAAz1H7pZBsCshbzm" rel="noopener">an extensive guide down to their results</a>.</li>
<li>Shares reacted poorly, but at first blush, it makes sense given the magnitude of the guide.  Let’s walk through the release.</li>
<li>It starts with inventory, and it’s clear their customers have too much inventory.</li>
</ul>


Mobileye surprised markets with an extensive guide down to their results.
Shares reacted poorly, but at first blush, it makes sense given the magnitude of the guide.  Let’s walk through the release.
It starts with inventory, and it’s clear their customers have too much inventory.


Mobileye Guides Down; Automotive Inventory, Memory Strength, and Marvell

United States

Microchip Technology Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets microcontrollers, related mixed-signal and memory products, and application development systems for high-volume embedded control applications. The Company also designs, develops, and markets linear/mixed-signal, power management, and thermal management products.

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Microchip Technology (MCHP US)

Astera Labs IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Astera Labs is market cap of US$5.4 billion or target price of US$35.9 per share, which is 20% higher than high end of...

Douglas Kim

Astera Labs IPO Preview

Astera Labs (ALAB US) is scheduled to debut its IPO on 20 March. The company is offering 17.8 million shares at a price of $27 to $30 per share.

Douglas Kim

Astera Labs IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Will Pricey IPO Frighten The Investors Off?

California-based Astera Labs has filed for an IPO and plans to raise up to $500M. The fabless semiconductor unicorn may be valued at more than $3B,...

Andrei Zakharov

Microchip Technology: How Their Latest Innovations Are Set to Dominate the Market! - Major Drivers

Microchip Technology, a leading provider of microcontroller and analogue semiconductors, reported its third quarter 2024 financial results which...

Baptista Research

Mobileye Guides Down; Automotive Inventory, Memory Strength, and Marvell

Mobileye surprised markets with an extensive guide down to their results. Shares reacted poorly, but at first blush, it makes sense given the...

Fabricated Knowledge

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