Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost</li>
<li>Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter</li>
<li>The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024</li>
</ul>


The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost
Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter
The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024


<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues remain in a decline, although that decline has slowed.</li>
<li>Prices appear to have reached cost.  They should follow cost declines until a shortage returns.</li>
<li>The timing of the next shortage is still in question.</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues remain in a decline, although that decline has slowed.
Prices appear to have reached cost.  They should follow cost declines until a shortage returns.
The timing of the next shortage is still in question.


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<ul><li>After breaking above the bear market trend line resistance area, last week’s banking sector contagion fears, spotlighted by Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) collapse, pushed the S&amp;P 500 back below its 200 day moving average on high volume.</li><li>Startup-focused lender SVB Financial Group is the largest US bank failure since 2008 and was the 16th biggest in the U.S. at the end of last year with about $209 billion in assets.</li><li>Silicon Valley Bank's failure is the largest since Washington Mutual went bust in 2008.</li></ul>

After breaking above the bear market trend line resistance area, last week’s banking sector contagion fears, spotlighted by Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) collapse, pushed the S&amp;P 500 back below its 200 day moving average on high volume.Startup-focused lender SVB Financial Group is the largest US bank failure since 2008 and was the 16th biggest in the U.S. at the end of last year with about $209 billion in assets.Silicon Valley Bank's failure is the largest since Washington Mutual went bust in 2008.

<ul>
<li>The semiconductor revenue decline took a short break in October.</li>
<li>Spot market prices for DRAM and NAND flash have slowed their decrease.</li>
<li>These are signs that the current market collapse is slowing, although we haven't hit bottom yet.</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor revenue decline took a short break in October.
Spot market prices for DRAM and NAND flash have slowed their decrease.
These are signs that the current market collapse is slowing, although we haven't hit bottom yet.


<ul>
<li>The current semiconductor market meltdown can be expected to continue through the end of 2024</li>
<li>This will reduce 2022 market growth to 5%, and will drive a decline of 19% in 2023</li>
<li>Stocks will be unevenly influenced by this, with the most dramatic declines hitting makers of volume commodities, smaller declines in differentiated products, and a weak impact on older technology products.</li>
</ul>


The current semiconductor market meltdown can be expected to continue through the end of 2024
This will reduce 2022 market growth to 5%, and will drive a decline of 19% in 2023
Stocks will be unevenly influenced by this, with the most dramatic declines hitting makers of volume commodities, smaller declines in differentiated products, and a weak impact on older technology products.


2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market

United States

Microchip Technology Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets microcontrollers, related mixed-signal and memory products, and application development systems for high-volume embedded control applications. The Company also designs, develops, and markets linear/mixed-signal, power management, and thermal management products.

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Microchip Technology (MCHP US)

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