Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Results and Guidance beat, driven by HBM very fast growth. HBM also generates higher margins and sucks up DRAM capacity, a secondary benefit. </li>
<li>HBM is still in year-2 of a 5-year journey. Industry revenues double in 2025 and Micron HBM revenue increase 5x in FY25. Expect Micron HBM to double in FY26. </li>
<li>Consensus is a tad too low for FY26, likely 10% too low. Consensus is very low for FY27, likely 25-30% too low. It’s hard for the sell-side to forecast hyper-growth.</li>
</ul>


Results and Guidance beat, driven by HBM very fast growth. HBM also generates higher margins and sucks up DRAM capacity, a secondary benefit. 
HBM is still in year-2 of a 5-year journey. Industry revenues double in 2025 and Micron HBM revenue increase 5x in FY25. Expect Micron HBM to double in FY26. 
Consensus is a tad too low for FY26, likely 10% too low. Consensus is very low for FY27, likely 25-30% too low. It’s hard for the sell-side to forecast hyper-growth.


Micron 3Q25 Beats by 13%, 4Q Guidance Beats by 14%. Consensus Forecasts for FY27 Too Low by 25-30%

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q325 revenues of $9.3 billion, up 15% QoQ and up 37% YoY and $500 million above the guided midpoint. This represented a new quarterly revenue record for the company</li>
<li>Micron forecasted current quarter revenues of $10.7 billion, up 15% QoQ, with gross margin of 42%, up 300 basis points sequentially</li>
<li>HBM negotiations for 2026 supply &amp; pricing still ongoing. Could Micron be holding out for a better deal?</li>
</ul>


Q325 revenues of $9.3 billion, up 15% QoQ and up 37% YoY and $500 million above the guided midpoint. This represented a new quarterly revenue record for the company
Micron forecasted current quarter revenues of $10.7 billion, up 15% QoQ, with gross margin of 42%, up 300 basis points sequentially
HBM negotiations for 2026 supply &amp; pricing still ongoing. Could Micron be holding out for a better deal?


Micron Q325 Earnings: NAND's Surprising Rebound While HBM Already @$6 Billion Annual Run Rate.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Micron Results Beat Across the Board, AI Product Mix Drives Gross Margin Upside</li>
<li>No Evidence Yet of Hyperscaler Pullback, But No Significant Increase in Outlook Either</li>
<li>Conclusion: AI-Driven Strength Continues, But Divergence Across the Memory Supply Chain Persists</li>
</ul>


Micron Results Beat Across the Board, AI Product Mix Drives Gross Margin Upside
No Evidence Yet of Hyperscaler Pullback, But No Significant Increase in Outlook Either
Conclusion: AI-Driven Strength Continues, But Divergence Across the Memory Supply Chain Persists


Memory Monitor: Micron Reinforces AI Memory Tailwinds, But Broader Supply Chain Recovery Gradual

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Micron is doing very well lately, mainly from its position in HBM, and this is likely to be a key positive factor in their upcoming June 25 earnings call</li>
<li>Hyperscaler CapEx has slowed, but the CapEx share of revenues continues to rise, indicating speculation that AI growth will come</li>
<li>Despite the above, Nvidia revenues have continued to grow, which is a positive indication for HBM sales</li>
</ul>


Micron is doing very well lately, mainly from its position in HBM, and this is likely to be a key positive factor in their upcoming June 25 earnings call
Hyperscaler CapEx has slowed, but the CapEx share of revenues continues to rise, indicating speculation that AI growth will come
Despite the above, Nvidia revenues have continued to grow, which is a positive indication for HBM sales


Micron Upcoming Earnings Vs.Hyperscaler CapEx Slowdown

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Earlier expectation on Micron will have rooms to raise becoming a reality, largely driven by over 30% q/q NAND bit price jump for storage business in 1Q24.</li>
<li>10ppts stronger 2Q24 sales guidance and 3-6ppts higher gross margin guidance are driving free cash flow improvement.</li>
<li>AI server, PC, and smartphone driving DRAM bit demand and HBM3e/HBM4 and 1-gamma EUV DRAM slowing bit supply growth both are positive except MOI remains 15% above 5 years average. </li>
</ul>


Earlier expectation on Micron will have rooms to raise becoming a reality, largely driven by over 30% q/q NAND bit price jump for storage business in 1Q24.
10ppts stronger 2Q24 sales guidance and 3-6ppts higher gross margin guidance are driving free cash flow improvement.
AI server, PC, and smartphone driving DRAM bit demand and HBM3e/HBM4 and 1-gamma EUV DRAM slowing bit supply growth both are positive except MOI remains 15% above 5 years average. 


The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Micron 3Q25 Beats by 13%, 4Q Guidance Beats by 14%. Consensus Forecasts for FY27 Too Low by 25-30%

Micron's strong results and guidance driven by rapid growth of HBM, with potential for significant revenue increases in the coming years. Sell...

Nicolas Baratte

Micron Q325 Earnings: NAND's Surprising Rebound While HBM Already @$6 Billion Annual Run Rate.

Micron's HBM negotiations for 2026 supply & pricing are still ongoing. Could they be holding out for a better deal? Let's see...

William Keating

Memory Monitor: Micron Reinforces AI Memory Tailwinds, But Broader Supply Chain Recovery Gradual

Micron's strong results driven by AI products, but memory supply chain divergence persists with no significant outlook increase.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron Upcoming Earnings Vs.Hyperscaler CapEx Slowdown

Micron's strong position in HBM and Nvidia's continued revenue growth suggest positive outcomes for upcoming earnings calls, despite a slowdown in...

Jim Handy

The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI

The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI; AI server, PC, and smartphone driving DRAM bit demand and HBM3e/HBM4 and 1-gamma EUV...

Andrew Lu

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Micron 3Q25 Beats by 13%, 4Q Guidance Beats by 14%. Consensus Forecasts for FY27 Too Low by 25-30%

​Micron's strong results and guidance driven by rapid growth of HBM, with potential for significant revenue increases in the coming years. Sell...

Nicolas Baratte

Micron Q325 Earnings: NAND's Surprising Rebound While HBM Already @$6 Billion Annual Run Rate.

Micron's HBM negotiations for 2026 supply & pricing are still ongoing. Could they be holding out for a better deal? Let's see...

William Keating

Memory Monitor: Micron Reinforces AI Memory Tailwinds, But Broader Supply Chain Recovery Gradual

​Micron's strong results driven by AI products, but memory supply chain divergence persists with no significant outlook increase.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron Upcoming Earnings Vs.Hyperscaler CapEx Slowdown

​Micron's strong position in HBM and Nvidia's continued revenue growth suggest positive outcomes for upcoming earnings calls, despite a slowdown in...

Jim Handy

The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI

The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI; AI server, PC, and smartphone driving DRAM bit demand and HBM3e/HBM4 and 1-gamma EUV...

Andrew Lu

Micron's strong results and guidance driven by rapid growth of HBM, with potential for significant revenue increases in the coming years. Sell...

Micron's strong results driven by AI products, but memory supply chain divergence persists with no significant outlook increase.

Micron's strong position in HBM and Nvidia's continued revenue growth suggest positive outcomes for upcoming earnings calls, despite a slowdown in...