Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector</li>
<li>Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months</li>
<li>Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle</li>
</ul>


There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector
Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months
Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle


Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>First, let’s talk about Huawei. I want to highlight how lackadaisically the export restrictions have even been applied.</li><li>BIS granted validated end-user status to SMIC in 2007, which meant that as late as 2020, multiple SMIC entities were still receiving tools from American companies.</li><li>BIS got lobbied by tool makers to undo commerce control list regulations in 2018. Also, AMEC has outright stolen tools from US companies.</li></ul>

First, let’s talk about Huawei. I want to highlight how lackadaisically the export restrictions have even been applied.BIS granted validated end-user status to SMIC in 2007, which meant that as late as 2020, multiple SMIC entities were still receiving tools from American companies.BIS got lobbied by tool makers to undo commerce control list regulations in 2018. Also, AMEC has outright stolen tools from US companies.

Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>DRAM Q2'23 revenues amounted to ~$11 billion, up 14.6% sequentially but down 56% YoY.</li>
<li>NAND Q2'23 revenues amounted to $9 billion, up 7.7% sequentially but down ~50% YoY.</li>
<li>Despite the modest uptick in Q2'23, there's a long and winding road back to sustainable profitability...</li>
</ul>


DRAM Q2'23 revenues amounted to ~$11 billion, up 14.6% sequentially but down 56% YoY.
NAND Q2'23 revenues amounted to $9 billion, up 7.7% sequentially but down ~50% YoY.
Despite the modest uptick in Q2'23, there's a long and winding road back to sustainable profitability...


<ul>
<li>China is considering banning gallium and germanium shipments to the US</li>
<li>Semiconductors consume well under 20% of world gallium production, and an almost immeasurably small amount of germanium</li>
<li>Very little of the consumption is in the US, indicating that the impact of a boycott should be very small</li>
</ul>


China is considering banning gallium and germanium shipments to the US
Semiconductors consume well under 20% of world gallium production, and an almost immeasurably small amount of germanium
Very little of the consumption is in the US, indicating that the impact of a boycott should be very small


Is China's Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?

<ul>
<li>Q2’23 revenues of NT$ 7,027 million, up 9.4% sequentially but down 61% YoY. Net losses declined QoQ, mainly due to favourable Fx and Income tax charges</li>
<li>Similar to Micron, while bit shipments increased QoQ, ASPs declined. This is not a road to recovery out of the memory segment downturn</li>
<li>While customer inventories have largely normalised, supplier inventories remain elevated. Until this corrects or demand surges, Nanya and peers will remain in the doldrums. </li>
</ul>


Q2’23 revenues of NT$ 7,027 million, up 9.4% sequentially but down 61% YoY. Net losses declined QoQ, mainly due to favourable Fx and Income tax charges
Similar to Micron, while bit shipments increased QoQ, ASPs declined. This is not a road to recovery out of the memory segment downturn
While customer inventories have largely normalised, supplier inventories remain elevated. Until this corrects or demand surges, Nanya and peers will remain in the doldrums. 


United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Jim Handy

Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs

A news filled week in semiconductors. Let's discuss. First, let’s talk about Huawei. I want to highlight how lackadaisically the export...

Fabricated Knowledge

Q2'23 Memory Segment Review

DRAM Q2'23 revenue ~$11 billion, up 14.6% QoQ, down 56% YoY. NAND Q2'23 revenue ~$9 billion, up 7.7% QoQ, down ~50% YoY. H1'23 was loss making...

William Keating

Is China's Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?

Although China has threatened to boycott shipments of germanium and gallium to the US, the impact of such a move is likely to be very small. This...

Jim Handy

Nanya Q2'23 Results. Doldrums Ahoy!

Q2’23 revenue NT$ 7,027 million, +9.4% QoQ , -61% YoY. Customer inventories ~normalised, supplier inventories remain ++. Until this corrects or...

William Keating

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Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

​The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Jim Handy

Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs

A news filled week in semiconductors. Let's discuss. First, let’s talk about Huawei. I want to highlight how lackadaisically the export...

Fabricated Knowledge

Q2'23 Memory Segment Review

DRAM Q2'23 revenue ~$11 billion, up 14.6% QoQ, down 56% YoY. NAND Q2'23 revenue ~$9 billion, up 7.7% QoQ, down ~50% YoY. H1'23 was loss making...

William Keating

Is China's Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?

Although China has threatened to boycott shipments of germanium and gallium to the US, the impact of such a move is likely to be very small. This...

Jim Handy

Nanya Q2'23 Results. Doldrums Ahoy!

Q2’23 revenue NT$ 7,027 million, +9.4% QoQ , -61% YoY. Customer inventories ~normalised, supplier inventories remain ++. Until this corrects or...

William Keating

The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...