Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q3FY26 results will be out on 24/Jun, consensus expectation of EPS US$19.72 (+9.3x YoY) is above management guidance and will be a new record. </li>
<li>HBM sold out through 2026; Micron meeting only 50–60% of customer requests — locked-in NCNR contracts and pricing power driving gross margin from 75% toward 81%.</li>
<li>Our FV US$1,400/share — premised on 14.3x FY27E EPS of US$97.77, on par with its historical mean. This implied +23% UPSIDE potential from current market price. </li>
</ul>


Q3FY26 results will be out on 24/Jun, consensus expectation of EPS US$19.72 (+9.3x YoY) is above management guidance and will be a new record. 
HBM sold out through 2026; Micron meeting only 50–60% of customer requests — locked-in NCNR contracts and pricing power driving gross margin from 75% toward 81%.
Our FV US$1,400/share — premised on 14.3x FY27E EPS of US$97.77, on par with its historical mean. This implied +23% UPSIDE potential from current market price. 


Micron Technology (MU US): The Memory Supercycle's Moment of Truth — Q3FY26 Preview

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>HBM TAM forecast to hit 100B by 2028 far earlier than projected.</li>
<li>Q2 2026 guidance projects 68% margins.High financial flexibility, but risks persist from cyclicality and geopolitical tensions.</li>
<li>Record revenue and cash flow mean potential upside for Micron.</li>
</ul>


HBM TAM forecast to hit 100B by 2028 far earlier than projected.
Q2 2026 guidance projects 68% margins.High financial flexibility, but risks persist from cyclicality and geopolitical tensions.
Record revenue and cash flow mean potential upside for Micron.


The Memory Wall Breaker: Micron’s ‘Sold Out’ 2026 HBM Supply and the Case for JUN26 Options

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Micron Technology has become one of the clearest battlegrounds in the AI infrastructure trade after its market value briefly crossed the $1 trillion mark following a dramatic UBS price target increase.</li><li>The move was driven by a powerful argument: high-bandwidth memory is no longer being treated as a cyclical commodity, but as a critical AI infrastructure component with sold-out capacity, customer prepayments, and long-term supply agreements that could reshape the company’s earnings profile.</li><li>Yet the same trading session also produced a sharply different warning from Northland Capital Markets, which argued that hyperscalers are becoming increasingly constrained after raising $260 billion in debt since the start of last year.</li></ul>

Micron Technology has become one of the clearest battlegrounds in the AI infrastructure trade after its market value briefly crossed the $1 trillion mark following a dramatic UBS price target increase.The move was driven by a powerful argument: high-bandwidth memory is no longer being treated as a cyclical commodity, but as a critical AI infrastructure component with sold-out capacity, customer prepayments, and long-term supply agreements that could reshape the company’s earnings profile.Yet the same trading session also produced a sharply different warning from Northland Capital Markets, which argued that hyperscalers are becoming increasingly constrained after raising $260 billion in debt since the start of last year.

Micron Hits $1 Trillion, But Wall Street’s AI Memory War Is Just Beginning!

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>YMTC currently has patent infringement lawsuits filed against Micron in California, Texas, Beijing, Shanghai, London, Dusseldorf &amp; Munich.</li>
<li>YMTC has also filed a complaint against Micron for false advertising, product disparagement, and unfair competition. They claim that anti-YMTC content on the chinatechthreat.com website was funded by Micron</li>
<li>The US patent litigation is currently in a stalemate. The UK and German litigation could proceed much faster compared to the US, and be much more problematic for Micron...</li>
</ul>


YMTC currently has patent infringement lawsuits filed against Micron in California, Texas, Beijing, Shanghai, London, Dusseldorf &amp; Munich.
YMTC has also filed a complaint against Micron for false advertising, product disparagement, and unfair competition. They claim that anti-YMTC content on the chinatechthreat.com website was funded by Micron
The US patent litigation is currently in a stalemate. The UK and German litigation could proceed much faster compared to the US, and be much more problematic for Micron...


<ul>
<li>Our financial outlook has strengthened since our last earnings call. We're on track for another substantial record free cash flow in fiscal Q3. Our balance sheet has never been stronger</li>
<li>Greenfield expansion is now mandatory. The industry needs new clean-room space, not just new tools, and clean-room construction is measured in years, not quarters.</li>
<li>Multi-Year EUV supply agreement with ASML has been concluded covering 1-delta and subsequent generations. EUV deployment will increase materially at 1-delta versus 1-gamma.</li>
</ul>


Our financial outlook has strengthened since our last earnings call. We're on track for another substantial record free cash flow in fiscal Q3. Our balance sheet has never been stronger
Greenfield expansion is now mandatory. The industry needs new clean-room space, not just new tools, and clean-room construction is measured in years, not quarters.
Multi-Year EUV supply agreement with ASML has been concluded covering 1-delta and subsequent generations. EUV deployment will increase materially at 1-delta versus 1-gamma.


Micron @ JPM 54th Annual TMT Conference: Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)