Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Memory names have rallied strongly, with Nanya Tech outperforming since the start of November.</li>
<li>DRAM bottomed and NAND flash prices have jumped. Micron says that 2025E could be a record year for the Memory industry.</li>
<li>High valuations make near-term upside for Memory names uncertain. For Long/Shorts one can consider Long Micron vs. Short SK Hynix or Long Micron vs. Short Nanya Tech.</li>
</ul>


Memory names have rallied strongly, with Nanya Tech outperforming since the start of November.
DRAM bottomed and NAND flash prices have jumped. Micron says that 2025E could be a record year for the Memory industry.
High valuations make near-term upside for Memory names uncertain. For Long/Shorts one can consider Long Micron vs. Short SK Hynix or Long Micron vs. Short Nanya Tech.


Memory Monitor: Micron Expects 2025E to Be Best-Ever for Memory; But Valuations Have Run Up a Lot

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.</li>
<li>We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.</li>
<li>We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.</li>
</ul>


We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.
We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.
We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.


First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

<ul>
<li>Micron's earnings results will be released September 27th. We expect the company to describe a trough for memory pricing happening now and provide a positive outlook for rising prices.</li>
<li>Micron and Nanya Tech have outperformed SK Hynix recently. Our 'reversion catch up' trade has worked. Going forward we believe Micron looks compelling on a relative basis.</li>
<li>SK Hynix was ahead of peers developing HBM DRAM needed for AI. However, Micron could now convince the market it can catch up by focusing on the next advanced version.</li>
</ul>


Micron's earnings results will be released September 27th. We expect the company to describe a trough for memory pricing happening now and provide a positive outlook for rising prices.
Micron and Nanya Tech have outperformed SK Hynix recently. Our 'reversion catch up' trade has worked. Going forward we believe Micron looks compelling on a relative basis.
SK Hynix was ahead of peers developing HBM DRAM needed for AI. However, Micron could now convince the market it can catch up by focusing on the next advanced version.


Micron's Results Likely to Call a Memory Market Trough and Highlight New HBM DRAM for AI

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Micron's Sept 29 4QF22 earnings call met the company's low guidance for the quarter</li>
<li>The company's current-quarter outlook is for a significantly worse 4QF22</li>
<li>This phenomenon will impact the earnings for all of Micron's competition in upcoming calls</li>
</ul>


Micron's Sept 29 4QF22 earnings call met the company's low guidance for the quarter
The company's current-quarter outlook is for a significantly worse 4QF22
This phenomenon will impact the earnings for all of Micron's competition in upcoming calls


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Micron Technology's fiscal fourth quarter 2024 earnings call underscores a period of noteworthy developments and strategic pivots, reflecting both positives and challenges that face the company.</li><li>The call, led by Sumit Sadana and other executives, provided insights into various aspects including demand trends, inventory levels, operational execution, and financial outlook which are critical for understanding Micron’s trajectory and market dynamics.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Micron Technology's fiscal fourth quarter 2024 earnings call underscores a period of noteworthy developments and strategic pivots, reflecting both positives and challenges that face the company.The call, led by Sumit Sadana and other executives, provided insights into various aspects including demand trends, inventory levels, operational execution, and financial outlook which are critical for understanding Micron’s trajectory and market dynamics.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Micron Technology Inc.: Tackling The Shifts in Customer Demand & Evolving Market Dynamics! - Major Drivers

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Memory Monitor: Micron Expects 2025E to Be Best-Ever for Memory; But Valuations Have Run Up a Lot

High valuations and the recent bull run make near-term upside for Memory names uncertain. For Long/Shorts one can consider Long Micron vs. Short SK...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

After the first Run of global semis' guidance, it tells early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone but weaknesses in automotive and industrial,...

Andrew Lu

Micron's Results Likely to Call a Memory Market Trough and Highlight New HBM DRAM for AI

SK Hynix was ahead of peers developing HBM DRAM needed for AI. However, Micron could now convince the market it can catch up by focusing on the...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron FYQ4: Bad, and About to Get Worse

Micron announced revenues down 23% Quarter on Quarter and guided down another 36% Q/Q for the current quarter. This shows what upcoming results...

Jim Handy

Micron Technology Inc.: Tackling The Shifts in Customer Demand & Evolving Market Dynamics! - Major Drivers

Micron Technology's fiscal fourth quarter 2024 earnings call underscores a period of noteworthy developments and strategic pivots, reflecting both...

Baptista Research

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