Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Anthropic's and OpenAI's annualized revenue run rates (ARRs) are being portrayed as a viable metric for investors as their IPOs approach, although the numbers are a "black box".</li>
<li>The most significant distortion in both companies' ARR figures is the circular financing loop: the hyperscalers who invest equity capital into Anthropic and OpenAI then route traffic back to them.</li>
<li>Investors should treat ARR with skepticism and not as a reliable basis for valuation. It's a directional indicator of growth momentum from a low revenue base that obfuscates actual performance.</li>
</ul>


Anthropic's and OpenAI's annualized revenue run rates (ARRs) are being portrayed as a viable metric for investors as their IPOs approach, although the numbers are a "black box".
The most significant distortion in both companies' ARR figures is the circular financing loop: the hyperscalers who invest equity capital into Anthropic and OpenAI then route traffic back to them.
Investors should treat ARR with skepticism and not as a reliable basis for valuation. It's a directional indicator of growth momentum from a low revenue base that obfuscates actual performance.


ANTHROPIC & OPENAI - ARR: Every Bubble Has a Gimmick

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Its ability to empower a bioterrorist to kill hundreds of millions, exists today. A cyber attack ability that scrambles all bank accounts, shuts down the electric grid, that exists today.</li>
<li>In the next few years, we cross over thresholds for accounting, legal work, telesales, tele-support, where 24 hours a day in every language with infinite trivia capability and no urgency.</li>
<li>AI makes nuclear weapons look like nothing. We said we would engage and we crossed those thresholds and there was complete silence.</li>
</ul>


Its ability to empower a bioterrorist to kill hundreds of millions, exists today. A cyber attack ability that scrambles all bank accounts, shuts down the electric grid, that exists today.
In the next few years, we cross over thresholds for accounting, legal work, telesales, tele-support, where 24 hours a day in every language with infinite trivia capability and no urgency.
AI makes nuclear weapons look like nothing. We said we would engage and we crossed those thresholds and there was complete silence.


Bill Gates AI Doomsday Warnings On The Ezra Klein Show. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Anthropic launched Claude Haiku 5.5 at up to 90% lower prices, Reflection AI unveiled its Beam open-weight model, and OpenAI's annualized revenue was below recent estimates.</li>
<li>OpenAI rolled GPT-6 out across ChatGPT, AWS added Zhipu's GLM-5.3 to Bedrock, TSMC's third-quarter revenue rose 50.9% YoY and Samsung guided record operating profit.</li>
<li>DeepSeek neared USD 12bn of new funding, Moonshot closed at about USD 50bn, Firmus withdrew its ASX IPO and SpaceX sought about USD 40bn of debt for Nvidia chips.</li>
</ul>


Anthropic launched Claude Haiku 5.5 at up to 90% lower prices, Reflection AI unveiled its Beam open-weight model, and OpenAI's annualized revenue was below recent estimates.
OpenAI rolled GPT-6 out across ChatGPT, AWS added Zhipu's GLM-5.3 to Bedrock, TSMC's third-quarter revenue rose 50.9% YoY and Samsung guided record operating profit.
DeepSeek neared USD 12bn of new funding, Moonshot closed at about USD 50bn, Firmus withdrew its ASX IPO and SpaceX sought about USD 40bn of debt for Nvidia chips.


This Week in AI (Oct 4-10): Haiku 5.5's Throat-Cutting Prices; OpenAI Revenue Trails Expectation

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Microsoft is moving into a critical new phase of its artificial intelligence strategy: turning massive infrastructure investment into recurring revenue.</li><li>The company has unveiled an upgraded Copilot “super app” that brings Office creation directly into Copilot while introducing Autopilot, an autonomous agent capable of monitoring conversations, following up on tasks and continuing recurring work without waiting for another prompt.</li><li>The launch arrives after Microsoft spent $41 billion on capital expenditures in its latest quarter and added 88 data centers during fiscal 2026 as demand for Azure and AI capacity continued to exceed available supply.</li></ul>

Microsoft is moving into a critical new phase of its artificial intelligence strategy: turning massive infrastructure investment into recurring revenue.The company has unveiled an upgraded Copilot “super app” that brings Office creation directly into Copilot while introducing Autopilot, an autonomous agent capable of monitoring conversations, following up on tasks and continuing recurring work without waiting for another prompt.The launch arrives after Microsoft spent $41 billion on capital expenditures in its latest quarter and added 88 data centers during fiscal 2026 as demand for Azure and AI capacity continued to exceed available supply.

Microsoft Spent Billions On AI—Can Copilot Finally Deliver The Payoff?

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Urbem (HK) Limited

<ul>
<li>Microsoft's 17× under Satya Nadella was a double play: EPS rose about 6.6× while the P/E more than doubled from a value-trap 13.8×.</li>
<li>It was a relay: the Ballmer era built the enterprise channel and incubated Azure; Nadella removed the anchors and redirected capital toward cloud and AI.</li>
<li>The next setup pairs a re-founder with an inherited distribution channel and an unpriced option; IBM had a franchise and an insider CEO but lacked the option and the reallocation.</li>
</ul>


Microsoft's 17× under Satya Nadella was a double play: EPS rose about 6.6× while the P/E more than doubled from a value-trap 13.8×.
It was a relay: the Ballmer era built the enterprise channel and incubated Azure; Nadella removed the anchors and redirected capital toward cloud and AI.
The next setup pairs a re-founder with an inherited distribution channel and an unpriced option; IBM had a franchise and an insider CEO but lacked the option and the reallocation.


The Relay Behind Microsoft's 17-Bagger: How to Find the Next Nadella

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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ANTHROPIC & OPENAI - ARR: Every Bubble Has a Gimmick

Anthropic's and OpenAI's annualized revenue run rates (ARRs) are being portrayed as a viable metric for investors as their IPOs approach, although...

David Mudd

Bill Gates AI Doomsday Warnings On The Ezra Klein Show. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

Its ability to empower a bioterrorist to kill hundreds of millions, exists today. A cyber attack ability that scrambles all bank accounts, shuts...

William Keating

This Week in AI (Oct 4-10): Haiku 5.5's Throat-Cutting Prices; OpenAI Revenue Trails Expectation

This week in AI: Anthropic cut prices by up to 90% with Claude Haiku 5.5, OpenAI's annualized revenue reached about USD 50bn, and Moonshot closed...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Microsoft Spent Billions On AI—Can Copilot Finally Deliver The Payoff?

Microsoft is moving into a critical new phase of its artificial intelligence strategy: turning massive infrastructure investment into recurring...

Baptista Research

The Relay Behind Microsoft's 17-Bagger: How to Find the Next Nadella

Microsoft's 17-bagger under a hired CEO was a relay: the Ballmer era built the enterprise engine and incubated Azure; Nadella changed its direction...

Urbem Capital

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