Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>I’ve compiled a large set of financial data to measure the impact of the AI Capex boom on the financial health of the 4 hyperscalers.</li>
<li>We can't measure the ROI of AI, but very clear that 1) operating margins and operating cash flow are increasing 2) higher Capex puts mild pressure on Free Cash Flow.</li>
<li>The major negative is that asset turns keep declining. This isn’t AI-specific, it started 10 years ago. Hyperscalers have become asset-heavy, high fixed costs companies. </li>
</ul>


I’ve compiled a large set of financial data to measure the impact of the AI Capex boom on the financial health of the 4 hyperscalers.
We can't measure the ROI of AI, but very clear that 1) operating margins and operating cash flow are increasing 2) higher Capex puts mild pressure on Free Cash Flow.
The major negative is that asset turns keep declining. This isn’t AI-specific, it started 10 years ago. Hyperscalers have become asset-heavy, high fixed costs companies. 


Hyperscalers: Is AI Capex Too High? What’s AI Return on Investment?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>3nm and below now accounts for 48% of total revenue, up from near-zero two years ago, as TSMC affiliate GUC becomes the go-to partner for hyperscaler custom silicon</li>
<li>Full-Year revenue grew 36% to NT$34.1bn, outpacing the broader semiconductor industry as custom AI chip demand accelerates</li>
<li>Companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta have publicly discussed or deployed custom chips for AI inference and training, and GUC's results suggest these programs are reaching meaningful volume.</li>
</ul>


3nm and below now accounts for 48% of total revenue, up from near-zero two years ago, as TSMC affiliate GUC becomes the go-to partner for hyperscaler custom silicon
Full-Year revenue grew 36% to NT$34.1bn, outpacing the broader semiconductor industry as custom AI chip demand accelerates
Companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta have publicly discussed or deployed custom chips for AI inference and training, and GUC's results suggest these programs are reaching meaningful volume.


GUC's 3nm Breakout Quarter Reveals How Taiwan's ASIC Leaders Are Capturing AI Chip Demand

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>2025 marked our tenth year covering Equity Capital Markets (ECM) in Asia Pacific. In 2025, IPO volumes were driven by a strong rebound in HK, while India flow remained resilient.</li>
<li>We ended 2025 with an accuracy rate of 72.2% across 119 IPOs that we covered and 64.3% across 125 placements.</li>
<li>For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.</li>
</ul>


2025 marked our tenth year covering Equity Capital Markets (ECM) in Asia Pacific. In 2025, IPO volumes were driven by a strong rebound in HK, while India flow remained resilient.
We ended 2025 with an accuracy rate of 72.2% across 119 IPOs that we covered and 64.3% across 125 placements.
For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.


Aequitas 2025 IPOs and Placements Performance Review - HK Breached COVID Peak, India Flow Strong

<ul>
<li>Hyperscalers (AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT) revenues accelerating from 1Q25. Total revenues in 2025 ~$1.15tn, up 17% YoY.</li>
<li>Cloud (AWS, GOOG, MSFT) revenues accelerating. 2025 Cloud revenues in 2025 ~$375bn, up 25% YoY.</li>
<li>2025 Capex up 63% YoY to $376bn. 2026 Capex will increase by ~46% YoY to reach ~$550bn. I estimate ~30% increase in 2027 to reach $715bn.</li>
</ul>


Hyperscalers (AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT) revenues accelerating from 1Q25. Total revenues in 2025 ~$1.15tn, up 17% YoY.
Cloud (AWS, GOOG, MSFT) revenues accelerating. 2025 Cloud revenues in 2025 ~$375bn, up 25% YoY.
2025 Capex up 63% YoY to $376bn. 2026 Capex will increase by ~46% YoY to reach ~$550bn. I estimate ~30% increase in 2027 to reach $715bn.


Hyperscalers’ Cloud Revenue and Capex Update

<ul>
<li>Review of the conventional arguments (Bloomberg article): the timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue.</li>
<li>Review of history of Tech Bubbles (Krugman): not clear if AI is a bubble, it could keep going for years, but if it bursts it will be worse than 1999-2003.</li>
<li>Best AI comp is Cloud Computing. Both enable new data analytics, new applications. Both are platforms. US Cloud Computing revenues increased 25x in 10 years (2015 to 2024).</li>
</ul>


Review of the conventional arguments (Bloomberg article): the timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue.
Review of history of Tech Bubbles (Krugman): not clear if AI is a bubble, it could keep going for years, but if it bursts it will be worse than 1999-2003.
Best AI comp is Cloud Computing. Both enable new data analytics, new applications. Both are platforms. US Cloud Computing revenues increased 25x in 10 years (2015 to 2024).


What Are the Arguments in Favor and Against an AI Bubble?

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Hyperscalers: Is AI Capex Too High? What’s AI Return on Investment?

financial data shows the AI Capex boom is boosting operating margins and cash flow for hyperscalers, but increasing Capex is putting mild pressure...

Nicolas Baratte

GUC's 3nm Breakout Quarter Reveals How Taiwan's ASIC Leaders Are Capturing AI Chip Demand

TSMC affiliate GUC sees surge in revenue from hyperscaler custom silicon, driven by demand for custom AI chips from tech giants like Amazon and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Aequitas 2025 IPOs and Placements Performance Review - HK Breached COVID Peak, India Flow Strong

2025 marked our tenth year covering Equity Capital Markets (ECM) in Asia Pacific. In 2025, IPO volumes were driven by a strong rebound in HK, while...

Sumeet Singh

Hyperscalers’ Cloud Revenue and Capex Update

Hyperscalers' revenues and cloud revenues are accelerating from 1Q25, Capex set to increase significantly in the coming years.

Nicolas Baratte

What Are the Arguments in Favor and Against an AI Bubble?

Timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue, AI could be a bubble worse than 1999-2003, Cloud Computing is the best AI comp with...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hyperscalers: Is AI Capex Too High? What’s AI Return on Investment?

​financial data shows the AI Capex boom is boosting operating margins and cash flow for hyperscalers, but increasing Capex is putting mild pressure...

Nicolas Baratte

GUC's 3nm Breakout Quarter Reveals How Taiwan's ASIC Leaders Are Capturing AI Chip Demand

​TSMC affiliate GUC sees surge in revenue from hyperscaler custom silicon, driven by demand for custom AI chips from tech giants like Amazon and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Aequitas 2025 IPOs and Placements Performance Review - HK Breached COVID Peak, India Flow Strong

2025 marked our tenth year covering Equity Capital Markets (ECM) in Asia Pacific. In 2025, IPO volumes were driven by a strong rebound in HK, while...

Sumeet Singh

Hyperscalers’ Cloud Revenue and Capex Update

​Hyperscalers' revenues and cloud revenues are accelerating from 1Q25, Capex set to increase significantly in the coming years.

Nicolas Baratte

What Are the Arguments in Favor and Against an AI Bubble?

​Timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue, AI could be a bubble worse than 1999-2003, Cloud Computing is the best AI comp with...

Nicolas Baratte

financial data shows the AI Capex boom is boosting operating margins and cash flow for hyperscalers, but increasing Capex is putting mild pressure...

TSMC affiliate GUC sees surge in revenue from hyperscaler custom silicon, driven by demand for custom AI chips from tech giants like Amazon and...

Hyperscalers' revenues and cloud revenues are accelerating from 1Q25, Capex set to increase significantly in the coming years.

Timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue, AI could be a bubble worse than 1999-2003, Cloud Computing is the best AI comp with...