TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Roblox initially fell 17% on earnings, but ended the week up 8%... why? Third party data is driving stock price action.</li>
<li>Reacceleration of DAUs, engagement, and bookings is beginning to play out...bullish ST.</li>
<li>LT EBITDA margins are anyone's guess right now, which makes the coming 9/9 Analyst Day an important catalyst to frame up the size and margin impact of TAM extensions.</li>
</ul>


Roblox initially fell 17% on earnings, but ended the week up 8%... why? Third party data is driving stock price action.
Reacceleration of DAUs, engagement, and bookings is beginning to play out...bullish ST.
LT EBITDA margins are anyone's guess right now, which makes the coming 9/9 Analyst Day an important catalyst to frame up the size and margin impact of TAM extensions.


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Reuters and several other news media outlets reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> is looking to raise its stake in French game publisher Ubisoft as it seeks to expand overseas.</li>
<li>Tencent owns approx. 5.0% of Ubisoft which was acquired in 2018 and is said to have reached out to the founding family Guillemot to buy a stake from their ownership.</li>
<li>As we mentioned in our previous insight, Tencent has been excluded for the fourth time from new game approvals which had impacted its online games biz.</li>
</ul>


Reuters and several other news media outlets reported that Tencent (700 HK) is looking to raise its stake in French game publisher Ubisoft as it seeks to expand overseas.
Tencent owns approx. 5.0% of Ubisoft which was acquired in 2018 and is said to have reached out to the founding family Guillemot to buy a stake from their ownership.
As we mentioned in our previous insight, Tencent has been excluded for the fourth time from new game approvals which had impacted its online games biz.


Tencent Looking to Raise Its Stake in Ubisoft at a Huge Premium

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Despite the massive size of its revenues, Microsoft has proven to be a remarkable story in terms of percentage-basis top-line growth over the past few years.</li><li>The Microsoft Cloud achieved a quarterly revenue milestone of $25 billion for the first time, up 28% and 33% in constant currency.</li><li>Additionally, Microsoft acquired the cyber threat research and analysis company Miburo to advance threat intelligence gathering on fresh foreign cyber threats.</li></ul>

Despite the massive size of its revenues, Microsoft has proven to be a remarkable story in terms of percentage-basis top-line growth over the past few years.The Microsoft Cloud achieved a quarterly revenue milestone of $25 billion for the first time, up 28% and 33% in constant currency.Additionally, Microsoft acquired the cyber threat research and analysis company Miburo to advance threat intelligence gathering on fresh foreign cyber threats.

Microsoft Corporation: The Continuing Cloud Momentum

<ul>
<li>Profitability ready to kick in again as Amazon grows into the overbuilt warehouse capacity and headcount from the past few quarters. 3Q22's guidance clearly conservative based on 2Q22's outperformance.</li>
<li>Revenue reacceleration beginning to play out. 2Q22's 7% leading to 3Q22's 15%, and back to the 20%s by 2023.</li>
<li>AWS continues its indomitable run. $79B TTM revenues are growing 37% with 31% margins.</li>
</ul>


Profitability ready to kick in again as Amazon grows into the overbuilt warehouse capacity and headcount from the past few quarters. 3Q22's guidance clearly conservative based on 2Q22's outperformance.
Revenue reacceleration beginning to play out. 2Q22's 7% leading to 3Q22's 15%, and back to the 20%s by 2023.
AWS continues its indomitable run. $79B TTM revenues are growing 37% with 31% margins.


Amazon 2Q22: Delivering an Inflection Point

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Microsoft Corporation is the most widely held stock among active US equity investors. Of the 297 active strategies in our analysis, 80.1% own Microsoft at an average weight of 5.10%</li>
<li>There is a growing dispersion between Value and Growth managers in MSFT.  Growth managers are at record levels of ownership, whereas Value managers are running their largest underweight on record.</li>
<li>US Growth managers are relying on Microsoft to deliver an increasing proportion of the Growth within their portfolios. The cost of that growth is coming under scrutiny by Value managers</li>
</ul>


Microsoft Corporation is the most widely held stock among active US equity investors. Of the 297 active strategies in our analysis, 80.1% own Microsoft at an average weight of 5.10%
There is a growing dispersion between Value and Growth managers in MSFT.  Growth managers are at record levels of ownership, whereas Value managers are running their largest underweight on record.
US Growth managers are relying on Microsoft to deliver an increasing proportion of the Growth within their portfolios. The cost of that growth is coming under scrutiny by Value managers


Microsoft: Growth Bulls Versus Value Bears

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)

Roblox 2Q22: 15% or 35% EBITDA Margins?

Roblox had a largely bullish quarter, with monetization and engagement metrics starting to show promised acceleration. Key will be 9/9/22 analyst...

Aaron Gabin

Tencent Looking to Raise Its Stake in Ubisoft at a Huge Premium

Tencent is looking to raise its stake in Ubisoft as it seeks to expand overseas. Stake increase would help Tencent expand into console gaming,...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Microsoft Corporation: The Continuing Cloud Momentum

Despite the massive size of its revenues, Microsoft has proven to be a remarkable story in terms of percentage-basis top-line growth over the past...

Baptista Research

Amazon 2Q22: Delivering an Inflection Point

Amazon's revenue growth is beginning to reaccelerate. Its cost growth is decelerating. Advertising is the best house in a tough digital...

Aaron Gabin

Microsoft: Growth Bulls Versus Value Bears

US Growth managers are relying on Microsoft to deliver an increasing proportion of the Growth within their portfolios. The cost of that growth is...

Steven Holden

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