HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax (100 HK)</a> is a viable AI foundation model company, with highly ranked product suites and increasingly more adoption by customers around the world. </li>
<li>The fair value is at HK$216 per share, reflecting its strong potential to capture the AI growth, solid market position and the scarcity value on the Hong Kong market.</li>
<li>At fair FY27F P/S of 48.8x, this equals 18% discount to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moore-threads-intelligent-technology-beijing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40221:1" rel="noopener">Moore Threads Intelligent (688795 CH)</a> and 35% premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-biren-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39934:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Biren Technology (6082 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



MiniMax (100 HK) is a viable AI foundation model company, with highly ranked product suites and increasingly more adoption by customers around the world. 
The fair value is at HK$216 per share, reflecting its strong potential to capture the AI growth, solid market position and the scarcity value on the Hong Kong market.
At fair FY27F P/S of 48.8x, this equals 18% discount to the Moore Threads Intelligent (688795 CH) and 35% premium to Shanghai Biren Technology (6082 HK). 


MiniMax Group (100 HK) IPO: Estimate of Fair Value

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax (MINIMAX HK)</a>, a global AI foundation-model company, is seeking to raise up to US$540 million. Pricing is on 7 January.     </li>
<li>MiniMax’s models support a wide range of proprietary AI-native products, including MiniMax, Hailuo AI, MiniMax Audio, Talkie/Xingye, and Open Platform.</li>
<li>The investment case rests on high-ranking foundation models, rapid growth, improving gross margin, declining EBIT loss margin and a strong balance sheet. </li>
</ul>



MiniMax (MINIMAX HK), a global AI foundation-model company, is seeking to raise up to US$540 million. Pricing is on 7 January.     
MiniMax’s models support a wide range of proprietary AI-native products, including MiniMax, Hailuo AI, MiniMax Audio, Talkie/Xingye, and Open Platform.
The investment case rests on high-ranking foundation models, rapid growth, improving gross margin, declining EBIT loss margin and a strong balance sheet. 


MiniMax (100 HK) IPO: The Investment Case

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of MiniMax is HK$301 per share (82% higher than high end of the IPO price range of HK$165). </li>
<li>We believe many investors are willing to pay for the high valuations mainly due to MiniMax's position as one of the leaders in the LLM/AGI sector in China/globally.</li>
<li>We estimate MiniMax to generate revenue of US$183.9 million (up 127% YoY) in 2026 and US$356.2 million (up 94% YoY) in 2027.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of MiniMax is HK$301 per share (82% higher than high end of the IPO price range of HK$165). 
We believe many investors are willing to pay for the high valuations mainly due to MiniMax's position as one of the leaders in the LLM/AGI sector in China/globally.
We estimate MiniMax to generate revenue of US$183.9 million (up 127% YoY) in 2026 and US$356.2 million (up 94% YoY) in 2027.


<ul>
<li>MiniMax is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in early January 2026. MiniMax is expected to raise at least US$500 million and as much as US$700 million. </li>
<li>Backed by Alibaba (9988 HK), MiniMax is targeting a valuation of more than US$4 billion. </li>
<li>MiniMax develops multimodal AI models including MiniMax M1, Hailuo-02, Speech-02 and Music-01, which can process text, audio, images, video and music.</li>
</ul>


MiniMax is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in early January 2026. MiniMax is expected to raise at least US$500 million and as much as US$700 million. 
Backed by Alibaba (9988 HK), MiniMax is targeting a valuation of more than US$4 billion. 
MiniMax develops multimodal AI models including MiniMax M1, Hailuo-02, Speech-02 and Music-01, which can process text, audio, images, video and music.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax</a>, a global AI foundation model company, aims to raise around US$600m in its Hong Kong listing.</li>
<li>As of September 2025, its AI-native products had cumulatively served over 200m individual users across over 200 countries and regions.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.</li>
</ul>



MiniMax, a global AI foundation model company, aims to raise around US$600m in its Hong Kong listing.
As of September 2025, its AI-native products had cumulatively served over 200m individual users across over 200 countries and regions.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.


MiniMax Pre-IPO - Fast User Growth, Low Market Share. Earlier App Was Pulled

China

MiniMax Group is an artificial intelligence company that develops multimodal AI models and consumer applications. Its offerings include AI character apps like Talkie and Xingye, and video-generation services such as Hailuo AI. The company also creates proprietary foundation models capable of understanding, generating, and integrating various modalities including text, audio, images, video, and music. Headquartered in Shanghai, China, MiniMax was founded in December 2021.

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MiniMax (100 HK)

MiniMax Group (100 HK) IPO: Estimate of Fair Value

MiniMax is a promising AI company with strong product suites and growing customer adoption, valued at HK$216 per share due to its potential in the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

MiniMax (100 HK) IPO: The Investment Case

MiniMax, a global AI foundation-model company, is seeking to raise up to US$540 million. In this note, I discuss the investment case.

Arun George

MiniMax Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

We believe many investors are willing to pay for the high valuations mainly due to MiniMax's position as one of the leaders in the LLM/AGI sector...

Douglas Kim

MiniMax Hong Kong IPO Preview

MiniMax is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in early January 2026. MiniMax is expected to raise at least US$500 million and as much...

Douglas Kim

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MiniMax Group (100 HK) IPO: Estimate of Fair Value

​MiniMax is a promising AI company with strong product suites and growing customer adoption, valued at HK$216 per share due to its potential in the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

MiniMax (100 HK) IPO: The Investment Case

MiniMax, a global AI foundation-model company, is seeking to raise up to US$540 million. In this note, I discuss the investment case.

Arun George

MiniMax Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

We believe many investors are willing to pay for the high valuations mainly due to MiniMax's position as one of the leaders in the LLM/AGI sector...

Douglas Kim

MiniMax Hong Kong IPO Preview

MiniMax is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in early January 2026. MiniMax is expected to raise at least US$500 million and as much...

Douglas Kim

MiniMax Pre-IPO - Fast User Growth, Low Market Share. Earlier App Was Pulled

MiniMax, a global AI foundation model company, aims to raise around US$600m in its Hong Kong listing. In this note, we look at the company's past...

Sumeet Singh

MiniMax is a promising AI company with strong product suites and growing customer adoption, valued at HK$216 per share due to its potential in the...